Brexit Forecast update: The last lap – Number Cruncher Politics
Forecasting can be tricky at the best of times – doing it in something of a data vaccuum this late on is a headache. Despite rediscovering their appetite for interesting opinion polls, the media aren’t commissioning anything like the number they have in the past, so two days before the vote we are still faced with a huge amount of uncertainty. Today’s data have the effect of pushing Brexit probability higher. Due to the lack of polls and lack of time left, individual polls are getting increasingly heavy weights, so the numbers may well be volatile, as they were today.