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Forecast update: Brexit probability increases sharply – Number Cruncher Politics
Brexit probability has risen sharply, with the NCP Brexit probability index now at 33%. Thus the chances of Britain voting to Leave the EU are higher than at any time since last year’s general election result confirmed that the referendum would take place. What’s happened? Well, before today the data flow was a string of online polls saying what online polls have been saying all along, together with limited evidence (one ICM phone poll over the long weekend) of relative movement in phone polls. At the time a bank holiday outlier seemed likelier than the phone online gap – that’s