How should we interpret the early results in the Scottish referendum? – Number Cruncher Politics
One challenge for those of us trying to interpret the early results (whether you’re trading, spinning or just really want to know) is benchmarking each result as it comes in, given that there are likely to be significant regional dispersions. If the first local authority that reports goes 60-40 one way, which side is that good news for? One thing that strikes me is the uniformity of swing between the 1979 and 1997 referenda, despite them being 18 years apart and the fact that the swing was very large (22.7 points). See my earlier post for the complete numbers. Clearly