How should we interpret the early results in the Scottish referendum? Part III - With regional adjustments – Number Cruncher Politics
So today’s the day. I’ve made some tweaks to my early results benchmarks in response to feedback. To recap, the first version of the model used the dispersion from the 1997 devolution referendum. This had the benefit of using known, real vote tallies, motivated by the uniformity of the swing between the 1979 and 1997 referenda. But disconnect between devolution and independance views led to odd results in certain areas. The second version used the estimates of the 2010 westminster vote shares by local authority combined with partisan yes/no splits from opinion polls. This gave much more intuitive results than