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How much to wager when you have edge? (Hint: median not mean outcomes!) - Party at the Moontower
Link: Rational Decision-Making under Uncertainty: Observed Betting Patterns on a Biased Coin Optimal bet size as a fraction of bankroll is 2p-1 where p is the probability of winning. You will recognize this as the edge per trial reported as a percent. So a 60% coin has 20% expected return or edge The formula is … Continue reading How much to wager when you have edge? (Hint: median not mean outcomes!) →