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Ohio, Illinois, Missouri, Nevada, And New Mexico: The Five Most Predictable States In Presidential Elections In American History | The Progressive Professor
Ohio, Illinois, Missouri, Nevada, and New Mexico have been the five most predictable states in Presidential elections in American history. Ohio has participated in 54 of the 58 Presidential elections in American history since 1804. It has often been said that Ohio is the "crucial" state in the quadrennial election process, and that is so true. No state has had the impact of Ohio, and particularly, due to the fact that Ohio has participated in more elections than all states except the original 13 states, plus Vermont, Kentucky and Tennessee, and none of those have been as "predictable" in backing the winners of the election. Altogether, Ohio has been "correct" in backing the winner all but 9 times, a total of 45 out of 54 times, or 83.3 percent of the time. The exceptions are the following chronologically: 1824--Henry Clay over John Quincy Adams 1836--William Henry Harrison over Martin Van Buren 1844--Henry Clay over James K. Polk 1848--Lewis Cass over Zachary