Two different scenarios for the Western Balkans
Russia and Turkey are before a historic denominations and both forces claim to bring a new order in the Balkans, Caucasus and Middle East. Selim Ibrahim From the historical aspect of the XV century Russo-Turkish rivalry has grown in the Black Sea, Crimea Tartars and was more dynamic in the Balkans. Both geopolitical characteristics, whether conflict or reconciliation on the territory of Russian-Turkish Eurasian Balkans have historically influenced and will continue to play a dominant role in the politics of the countries of the Western Balkans. Recent governments certainly intended to strengthen the geopolitical position in Europe and tend to affect the policies of the European Union enlargement towards the Balkans. Tactical approach of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Russian with Vladimir Putin during the meeting in Moscow in August had three purposes: First, the two forces of ripërtrinë relations chilled after Russian military plane crash in 2015. Second, emotions the momentum of the new geopolitics of Russian-Turkish EU against the Eurasian land have the same weight. Third, President Erdogan of Turkey military coup puts the epicenter of regional policy aiming to give Turkey a key role in the current developments. Turkish government actually owns the migrant crisis which serves as the currency against the EU and has a tremendous impact on the Western Balkans, namely in the former territories of the Ottoman Empire. After his visit to Moscow and Brexit's in the Western Balkans in the next five years will vrejmë two scenarios to influence internal political processes, economic and cultural. 1. pro-Western democratic governments will aim to support the EU mainly States to accede to the fragile union and NATO. 2. Governments led by autocratic politicians and high-level corruption will be removed from the influence of Western policy, is likely to be closer to the sphere of Russian-Turkish. Russia intends to present the Western Balkan countries are still not part of the scope of Brussels continue to maintain this neutrality. Macedonia and Serbia are classic examples of neutrality towards the US and the EU. Taking into consideration the historical and emotional circumstances local population, Turkey has adequate ground handler. Turkish penetration can be more easily compared to that in the future Russia should see how Erdogan will operate in the former lands occupied by the Ottomans. Would you recognize it or not former predecessors? His role will tombs how America will be perceived by Ankara and Moscow after recent visits to the Vice / President Joe Biden in Serbia, Kosovo and Turkey. Western Balkan countries despite the investment and support they had from the EU and America are not part of any strong economic integration, and it leaves room for penetration of Russian-Turkish robust five year we have entered. The fact is that the main trading partner of the EU Western Balkans and Turkey. Meanwhile, Turkey, Germany, China, Russia, the US and Italy are the main countries in which Ankara relies modern commercial exchange. Great Britain departure from the union was welcomed by autocratic leaders, corrupt economy figures and Russia. This can be an incentive for diametrically opposed processes in the Balkans. Once the process of integration in the union is not so easy and the departure of the British has left a black mark on Europeans skepticism growing and rumors against the EU, opened the public debate as to why these countries should join the European Union. The enlargement process has slowed because of the helplessness of Brussels for unity within and outside its territory. America remains the only force that can speed up the entry process of the Balkan states in NATO in response to the policies of President Vladimir Putin. Washington presents policy problem for Serbia, Macedonia and in some respects that of the Bosnian Serbs. Washington maintains a diplomatic and commercial presence in the Balkans easy. Presidential elections in November will define the long-term policy toward Europe and here to be seen how Russia and Turkey will reflect in the region. One thing is clear, that the Russian-Turkish alliance will expand vassal states that will support the current policies of Russia and Turkey. Historically the connection between these two countries has not been so long and at certain moments have broken again if both parties in the Caucasus, the Black Sea or the Balkans. Now Balkans is facing new challenges of migration, extremism, poverty and global trends. By observing the current situation in Macedonia, Serbia, Kosovo, Bosnia and finally to Britain's exit from the union, in a near future we will not see a rapid process of accession of Balkan states into the EU or NATO as the antithesis growing power of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the Russian Vladimir Putin. If we have quick getaway leaders who have deviated integration processes, then the chances for a new Balkans increase, but risk the peninsula turns into a buffer zone or called special area. US must reformulate a different approach on how to decrease the influence of rising powers in the region. Russia faces international sanctions, economic decline, demographic decline but more budget to modernize the army and becoming assertive and aggressive. Turkey President Erdogan have three options: 1. To stay together with Russia. 2. To expand and influence outside the economic power that possesses itself. 3. To again become allied with America. At the end, Turkey and Russia are swim in the warm waters of the Mediterranean and in the periphery of the sphere of influence of the former imperial. Elections in Macedonia are too provocative as to Washington, Ankara and Kremlinin.BE through soft diplomacy failed to secure a fragile political agreement in Macedonia which is being challenged by internal factors and informative propaganda. However, elections have the opportunity to donate a crystal ball Washington, Ankara and Brussels Kremlin for the next offensive rajon.Ndërsa for new Macedonian government for an update to the axis rising glance.
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