yes i did steal this from facebook

anonymous asked:

Do you agree with Jimmy Carter?

[re: this post]

YES. Jimmy Carter specifically said he doesn’t believe that Russia “stole” the election and Russia isn’t why Hillary lost, but let’s unpack that a little:

First of all, let’s be really clear here: we are talking about targeted posts on social media. Showing anti-Clinton ads on Facebook “being hacked.” If that were the case, then you’re being “hacked” every single time you read any post that’s critical of Hillary Clinton. So I think that terminology is intentionally hyperbolic, if not intentionally misleading. Did Russia hack into emails and databases? Even though the FBI and CIA still haven’t physically examined the DNC computer systems, the answer is probably YES. Did Russia attempt to influence the outcome of the U.S. elections? Yes. Absolutely. Did they flip votes? No, there is no evidence that happened and until then, all we’re talking about is Facebook and Twitter ads and social media bots saying, “Don’t vote for Hillary,” which (surprise) people can and did ignore. Clinton won the popular vote by what, 3 million votes? We can and should prevent Russia from interfering in our elections—that is hugely important—but for right now, Russia did not “steal” our election, and no, they are not the reason Clinton lost. Sorry. (I don’t want to take up a ton of space, so I’ll come back to Russia’s interference under the “Read More” page break.)

Second, and this is important: there are two different questions people are conflating - Did Russia “steal” the election and cost Hillary the election? NO. Did Donald Trump try to collude with Russia and possibly commit treason? YES. Two completely different things.  

Third: Russia spent somewhere between $100,000 - $600,000 on Facebook and Twitter ads, and had hundreds of fake accounts on social media. I dO believe that advertising (propaganda) works - but it does have its limits, and only works to a degree, and only with certain things. For example, I happen to love Pizza Hut pizza (please don’t judge me) and hate Papa Johns. Pizza Hut could stop running ads all together and Pappa Johns could run a million commercials a day for an entire year, but there’s no way in hell I’m ever going to buy a pizza from Papa John’s. It’s just not gonna happen. Same with Pepsi. They run ads literally 24/7/365, and never once have I said to myself, “You know what? I think I want a Pepsi instead of Coke.” Because I’ve tried them both, and I already have a preference.

Beyonce’ or Taylor Swift? Nicki Minaj or Miley Cyrus? Cats or dogs? If you had to vote for one of them, does anyone really believe that FB ads, no matter how well produced, could change your mind on which you like better, or who you vote for? NO. Because most people already have a favorite, and they aren’t going to change their minds just because of social media. Especially not with polar opposites. Confirmation bias will only make people become more entrenched with opinions they already hold, but it’s never going to change someone’s mind—especially not in politics, and not with known quantities that are extreme opposites—if they have even a slight preference. And guess what? Most people already have a favorite, or are leaning in one direction or the other. Think of it like this: those targeted ads can only draw out what’s already there, but they cannot put a competing preference where one already exists. It’s kind of like the trope about hypnosis - ads aren’t going to make you do something that you aren’t already predisposed to do (like vote for Trump).  

Look, Hillary used a David Brock SuperPAC and spent $1 million dollars to troll Sanders supporters (money that could have been better spent elsewhere, iMho), and if money spent on ads were the deciding factor, then Clinton would have easily won, because her campaign spent at least ten times more than Russia on ads, so that should have done the trick, right?

When there’s a choice involved, especially between two opposite things we already have even a little knowledge of, or have personal feelings on, then slick advertising isn’t always going to make people change their minds. And both Clinton and Trump were, more or less, known quantities. Both candidates have very long, well known histories, and long before the 2016 election rolled around, people on both sides pretty much already knew who and what they were voting for.

Take me for example. Contrary to what my mom has told me for every day of my life, I suspect that I am not super super special. That is, I am no smarter or dumber than the next guy, okay? I’m a diehard Bernie supporter who has absolutely no love for Hillary or the Clintons. In fact, I had planned on leaving that space blank, and not voting for anyone for president. But I’m registered to vote in a swing state and I was taken aback (are black men allowed to be taken aback?) by the incredible amount of responsibility I suddenly felt when I was actually standing there in the ballot booth. I was literally shook. So guess what? I ended up surprising myself and voted for Hillary Clinton. But….why didn’t all those fancy Facebook ads & bots work on me, or my family & friends, who were also Sanders supporters? BECAUSE WE’RE BLACK, NOT CRAZY. All the slick ads and propaganda on earth were never going to get me to change my mind, or somehow trick me into voting for Trump, no matter how much I dislike the Clintons.

If you love Trump and hate Clinton (or love Clinton, hate Trump), then ads are not going to change your mind. Oh, and those mythical “undecided voters” already have a preference between Democrats vs Republicans.

So that begs the question: When dO ads work? I mean, when do targeted ads change someone’s mind on a choice between two alternatives? When it’s seen as a small inconsequential choice, or when the choices are not very different, or WHEN YOU DO NOT *ALREADY* HAVE A PREFERENCE, ESPECIALLY BETWEEN POLAR OPPOSITES. But once we do form a preference, we are very very slow to change them. 

Keep reading

Preference #109: Little School Stories

Jack: You flipped through your old yearbook, looking at the young faces of people you used to know. You remembered school events, cheerleading and Jack. He’d been much younger, not yet filled out into manhood, and had that sweeping bang over his eyes. You’d actually liked that bang strangely. Then you saw the “prom” page. ‘Remember when you banned from prom?’ You asked Jack, sitting not too far from you, ‘Vividly. Why?’ ‘No reason, just remember going all alone-‘ ‘-You didn’t go alone! You went with all our friends-‘ ‘-I danced by myself when they started playing music and stood with the other rejects when the slow songs came on-‘ ‘-I’m not apologizing again. I’ve done it millions times.-‘ ‘-Sorry won’t make up for having a corsage-less wrist.’ You laughed at his irritated face, and dodged the paper ball of tossed at you.  ‘While you shot fictional army opponents, I was stuffing my face!’ You cried out in mock sadness, ‘Do you know what that’s like?!’ ‘Yeah. I see you do it now.’ ‘Oh shush you!’ You tossed the ball back at him.

Finn: You saw her face on his old Facebook page. Her long black hair reaching down to her waist like back then, and looking as pretty as always. ‘Jesus…did she age like at all?’ You muttered to yourself, looking at Finn’s old girlfriend. ‘What are you doing?’ ‘I found Kelly on your old Facebook page.’ ‘Are you stalking my ex-girlfriends?’ ‘No. I just came across her looking for somebody else.’ ‘So that’s a yes…’ You looked at her profile picture, bright smile and all, ‘I remember her being taller than you. I never got why a guy would date a girl taller than him…’ ‘You didn’t seem to see that when you stole me from her.’ You gasped, ‘I did NOT steal you! I barely spoke to you before we had history class together. You started talking to me, remember?’ ‘I remember you knowing full well I had a girlfriend when you flirted with me over my history book. You’d pretend you left yours at home so we’d have to share. You’d brush up against me a lot and bat those eyes at me…You were completely irresistible to me, honestly.’ You laughed, recalling how flustered you’d make Finn simply by looking at him. ‘How do you deal with it now then?’ ‘You sorta get used to the over abundance of beauty after a while, though it kinda hits me whenever you sneak up on me.’

Dan: You slept in his old bedroom in his parent’s house, both of you spending the Christmas weekend with them. You smile to yourself as Dan wrapped his arms around your waist, cuddling against you with his head against your shoulder blade. ‘Remember when we’d cuddle together after school?’ You grinned, thinking about the awkward teenager who’d force you into his bed so he didn’t nap alone. ‘Yeah,’ He said, his voice breaking the nighttime silence, ‘And try to cop a feel at the same time.’ You shared a laugh. ‘Those were the really nice times…Just lying in your bed with you, having you hold me and comfort me.’ ‘Well, what kind of future boyfriend would I have been if I didn’t do that for you?’ ‘The only thing you had confidence in…’ ‘Well, I knew you’d eventually figure out that we were meant for each other and stop dating complete dickheads.’ ‘They were only dickheads because they were dating me.’ ‘True.’ ‘How’d it feel being friendzoned?’ You joked. He chuckled, ‘I wouldn’t say ‘friendzoned’ since that would imply I was some pathetic idiot who tricked a girl into being friends in order to be her boyfriend later. I really wanted to be friends with you when we first met.’ You felt his fingers trace circles on your side like they always do when you cuddle. ’So…you’re…you’re…telling me you weren’t completely captivated by my obvious surface beauty right away?’ You pouted. ‘Oh no, I was. I just didn’t think I was good enough for you.’ ‘Well, you are…you’re definitely good enough.’

Phil: You couldn’t hold back your smile when you watched his old videos. Not the university videos or the 2009 era. The videos of school Phil, who’d just gotten a camera of his own and filmed complete nonsense with friends. You were in these a lot more than the newer ones. You loved watching the one he made about the day you came over, and he filmed everything you both did. You played in the snow, making snow angels; you played with your new kitten and talked about yourselves. ‘Oh God, why are you watching those?’ You saw him come into the room, holding two cups of tea and in his Christmas jumper. ‘I like watching them sometimes. It’s nice to see school Phil and Y/N.’ You kindly took your tea mug from him and sipped it. ‘Ugh, but it’s all so cringe-worthy! I can’t…’ He put his hand on the screen just as Phil ended the video with kissing your cheek. ‘But Phil! We’re so cute! Look how cute we are together!’ You lifted the laptop to his face, ‘Oh gosh, no wonder they ship us, Phil! Philllll!’ ‘Get that out of my face!’ Phil laughed, pushing the laptop away. He stares at your freeze-framed face. ‘You’re way too pretty for me.’ ‘And you’re way too good for me.’