#exactly as expected #technically it's a risk #but he's not a risk- what do you mean?
guitar-based rock-pop is not currently the mainstream pop trend. right now everything is very EDM/House/TropHouse/R&B heavy on the radio. guitar music that makes the radio is usually acoustic ballads. there was actually a decent take on this from billboard:
“We don’t know what sort of lyrical content Styles has cooked up, but we aren’t expecting him to follow Zayn down the alt-R&B path. From his influences to his fashion to his onstage persona to his (formerly) flowing locks, Styles’ vibe has always screamed rock star, and despite the genre’s recent lack of presence on the Billboard Hot 100, he’s got the charisma to make it happen. And guess what? From Up All Night to 2015’s Made in the A.M., One Direction basically morphed into a pop-leaning rock band, one whose tendency to build songs on guitar and keys was often overshadowed by the fact people insisted on the boy band tag. Zayn veered away from this, and despite a fervent built-in fan base (which purchased 402,000 first-week copies of Made in the A.M. in the U.S.), his not-very-One Direction-sounding album sold considerably fewer copies – 112,000 – in its own debut week. Granted, “Pillowtalk” topped the Hot 100, but the Styles persona could give his solo career an even higher ceiling. So much hinges on how his first single fares.
So what’s it gonna sound like? The safe, industry-tested route would be a collection of folksy, acoustic-based ballads, ones that allow for a little soul-searching, while reminding radio program directors of the Ed Sheeran and James Bay songs they’ve had success with lately. One Direction even collaborated with Sheeran; pre-fame, he co-wrote their 2012 single “Little Things” and he was brought back to help with “18” on their final album. Styles didn’t write “Little Things,” but that’s exactly the sort of doe-eyed balladry we expect on his solo material. Even writing for Ariana Grande, Styles delivered a ballad, so expect him to focus on his comfort zone, even if it means pushing outside PG-13 1D territory. Getting almost any guitar sound outside of acoustic balladry on pop radio is a tough sell these days, but again, a Harry Styles debut won’t be treated like an ordinary debut. He’d be smart to build on what worked for One Direction, though we’re not exactly pining for a Maroon 5 spin-off like “Drag Me Down.” Something that taps into the U.K.’s rich tradition of guitar music – without giving into simple revivalism – would help Styles follow on the grown-up tastemaker appeal that Zayn was able to court with Mind of Mine. DNCE’s “Cake by the Ocean” kind of sounds like Duran Duran if they started out in 2016, and it managed to crack the top 10. Take it from Joe Jonas, another grown-up former member of a boy band that people were afraid to call a rock band.”
I think what many critics will be looking for is 1. a flat out good song lyrically and musically and 2. the fine line between mimicry and inspiration. If he veers to inspiration, then they’ll praise the bold, stand-out move. If it’s too close to the source material, then they’ll call it out. We may get a mix of both depending on how cynical the reviewer is.
ETA: to answer your specific question 1. this is the kind of music most people expected from harry 2. in general this kind of music is a risky sell 3. but because it’s harry it has a better chance for success vs. an unknown trying to bring that sound into the mainstream.