Matsui Rena Made What Was The Best Power Play of The Sousenkyo
In that her withdrawal for the event, and the sheer number of votes it “unlocked”, meant that SKE48 made a serious increase in terms of their member representation for the 2015 elections.
Some quick theoretical math here:
Assuming Rena gets 85% of what J gets (a realistic and conservative estimate, given how these two run neck to neck most of the times), this year the theoretical vote count for Rena would have been 89.5k.
So if you look at it from another angle, that’s 89.5k votes to pull off SKE swings.
Here’s where I think Rena’s vote swings went:
1) 18K for Takayanagi Akane to move her from a comfortable Undergirls spot into the fringes of Senbatsu.
Assuming her fans kept up with vote inflation every year (and that’s a key point cause not all fans would play along with inflation), it would take Churi at least 24k votes to safely play in the Undergirls zone.
This year however, she enjoyed a vote swing of +30K to make it into 14th place. So how did this happen? I am guessing that Rena made a call for neutral SKE voters to push for an SKE senior who had what it took for Senbatsu, and fulfil her desires. So that’s 18k accounted for.
Then how about the remaining 12k? You forgot Furukawa Airi, who got 19.3K votes last year. Assuming attrition from fans who moved on from fandom, or voted for other girls, you still had about 12k worth of votes from fans who were like “For Airi” or just couldn’t think of anyone else to vote for.
2) 16K for Matsumura Kaori, again from the pointy end of Undergirls to the fringes of Senbatsu.
As always, her fans now seem to have the ability to keep her in UG and stay with vote inflation. So if Kaotan got the required 37K to stay in higher Undergirls positions, the 16K vote swing would have done the job.
3) 10K for Oba Mina. I am guessing some Rena voters here are utterly neutral, and would just vote for someone reasonably popular and who has made SKE senbatsu without too much complaint. So that’s where some Hako oshi vote swing went, just like Churi.
4) 10K for Tani Marika. Because Rena’s favourite haz 10K extra votes. I might be kidding here, but assuming her vote canvassing ability was that of a second-tier SKE member, she would have obtained around 15-16K votes, leaving vote swings to do the rest.
So that’s 54K of Rena’s votes. How about say, 15K of the remaining votes?
Answer: Position swings in the lower tiers, and securing two centres at that.
Look, the spread between top Upcoming Girls (P65) and scraping in (P80) was just 1800, with some positions held by margins of less than 50.
Besides, the magic number to enter is 13K plus about a hundred. So my guess is that some swing voters hit the minimum marks for some SKE members they liked, and then proceeded to let fans add some votes to create 43% member representation in the Upcoming Girl section (and an SKE center too)
In such a situation, a thousand (or a few) well-scattered votes could really come in handy!
It was most probably the same story with the Future Girls. Take the base votes of loyal fans, throw in some well-planned swing votes, and you have the results shown here. Those swing votes came in handy, particularly in ranks with margins in the hundreds.
Even if not all of Rena’s theoretical 89.5 K votes were used to pull of swings, either by her voters sitting out, or putting more money behind the other SKE pillar, Jurina, one could still see Rena ironically making the most impact for someone who sat out of the elections this year.
If her move could be summed up in a phrase, it would be: Well played, Rena.
the final season of american idol is drawing to a close, and they’re down to the top 3. La’Porsha Renae is super deserving of the win, here are a few of her amazing performances for proof:
you can vote for La’Porsha by googling “american idol”, clicking La’Porsha’s face, sliding it up to 10 votes, clicking confirm, and clicking submit votes. a “thank you for voting” message will show up when you’re done.
please help support La’Porsha Renae and vote! voting is open until tomorrow morning.