Why I think the CO is coming soon...really soon.
There’s a well-worn phrase in the PR world that says, “Strike while the iron is hot.” Well, with all the recent cleaning up of Harry’s past “relationships” and Louis’ name being a regular in the media, the iron is bright fucking orange right now and my money is on a CO within the next couple of weeks. Here’s why I think this:
1. I don’t think they’ll wait until the July mini-break between playing in Europe and the States. They need their first several shows after coming out to be in places where they can expect 99.9% of the ticket holders to be supportive, and where better to test that out than on their home turf with shows in Cardiff and the Summertime Ball in London? From there they go to Europe, which is (broadly speaking) more supportive of gay rights than the States (overall). As an American, I’m sorry to say I think it’s too risky for their first shows out as a couple to be in the States; while we are making progress here, there is still a good amount of opposition and I just don’t think Louis and Harry would agree to put themselves in that vulnerable a position. With about a month between starting off in Wales and hitting San Diego, fan reactions would cool down and American fans who are intrigued by the story could seek out tickets from homophobic assholes who want to sell theirs.
2. I also don’t think they’ll wait to use it for new promo for the album. I think they’ll want to have their new fan base falling into place by then so they can better target their promotional dollars toward the audience that really counts. To do that, they’ll need to know very clearly who that audience is well in advance so they can plan accordingly and arrange promotional space/time in the right media. And as many others have pointed out, coming out that close to the release of the album could be offputting to older fans, who might think of it as a stunt.
3. They’ve got 12 days between finishing up in North America and heading back to the UK, but I think this is too close to album release time for the reasons I’ve mentioned above. The CO will have an impact on who their new audience is and I think they need time to plan for how they’ll reach their new fans. Also, the boys have said they think the album will come out sooner than usual (Sept/Oct), so that would leave a very short amount of time to adjust to the impact of the CO.
There you have it - pure speculation so take it as you will, but these are my thoughts.