unusual-weather

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Panorama / August 21, 2016 After a week of daily rainfall, August is turning into an unusual weather month with highs hovering around 90 (10 degrees below normal). I did a major weeding job with the wet soil, dealt with numerous fire ant mounds, and did an early fall seeding of rye. Looks like we will have a green end to summer.

*Update: I’ve added my first backyard pano from August 2011.*

England's-what?

Author: YaoiFanL

Summary: An Emergency World Meeting is held after the weather became unusually warm - to the point of suffocating - in England. But what did it have to do with English people’s pain in certain areas? And why was Arthur so stiff in his seat, with a sniggering American sitting next to him and a smirking Frenchman watching him from across the table?

Read it on ff.net~~

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Went to the stock yard today since the weather was unusually cooler for August. They had a collection of mostly broken but still pretty neat knives and I almost bought a set of Elvis tapes for an 8-track player I don’t even have. Also got to pet a gentle giant Mastiff named Fox.

'The weather' is a good excuse only when it's not an excuse

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(The outskirts of flooded Trinidad some 310 miles northeast of La Paz in 2008.David Mercado/Reuters)
CEOs, investors, and economists love to blame the weather.

Here’s a short sample of excuses from the past several quarters alone:

  • Bank of America Merrill Lynch said the warmer-than-average October last year probably negatively affected the month’s retail sales. (October 2015)
  • Macy’s CFO attributed weak interest in the company’s fall apparel to warm weather. (November 2015)
  • Dick’s Sporting Goods CEO said slowing sales could be attributed to “funky weather.” (November 2015)
  • High Street retailer NEXT said “unusually warm weather in November and December” led to a “disappointing” holiday season. (January 2016)

The basic thinking here is that unseasonably warm or cold weather alters the way Americans shop. This makes sense, to a certain extent: If it’s 80 degrees outside, you might not exactly be in the market for a parka.

But the cynical read here is that companies and economists use “the weather” as an excuse for other, real problems with their business and/or the economy. Perhaps our hypothetical American shopper didn’t buy a certain winter coat at a given department store because the person bought it on Amazon or because the department store looked chaotic or because wage growth has remained low since the Great Recession — not because of the weather.

F0r what it’s worth, back in January, Bank of America Merrill Lynch economist Michelle Meyer, said her team found “little evidence of a weather effect on total sales.”

She plotted the deviation for total retail sales excluding cars for the month of December over the past 25 years against the same measure for temperatures over that same time period and found no correlation.

(BAML)

But even though everyone blames the weather in what feels like every earnings call, folks fall silent when it comes to effects from the weather that could actually change things up, such as La Niña and El Niño.

“La Niña episodes can have an outsized economic and financial impact … Yet surprisingly little about evolving weather developments finds its way into the business or popular media until after the fact,” a Deutsche Bank team led by strategist John Tierney observed in a note.

“And historical evidence suggests that investors can be slow to price in weather patterns until things are fairly far along. A key reason is that most people simply do not understand the underlying weather drivers.”

For those unfamiliar, La Niña is characterized by powerful monsoons that could flood low-lying areas, while El Niño comes with unusually dry weather. And the National Oceanic Administration Agency confirmed that La Niña was on its way this year.

Here’s Deutsche Bank again:

“Given the many far-reaching implications, investors should pay closer attention to the potential flipping of the weather conditions from El Niño to La Niña in the near future. A moderate La Niña will benefit Southeast Asia and Australia by bringing an end to the prevailing drought conditions and improve the production of agricultural commodities such as rich and palm oil. In contrast, a very powerful La Niña event would cause widespread destructive flooding, offsetting the benefits of more rain in the region.”

As Business Insider’s Akin Oyedele noted earlier, one area of particular interest to Deutsche Bank time around is Asian currency markets.

(Submerged vehicles at the Honda factory in Ayutthaya province in 2011.Damir Sagolj/Reuters)

Though these weather events hit the equatorial Pacific particularly hard, they could also have ramifications on other economies, including the US’s, given increased global integration.

Back in 2011, for example, heavy rains and flooding forced many factories in Thailand — a major hub for hard disk drives — to close down.

That led the worldwide production of hard drives to drop by 28% and the production of notebooks, digital video recorders, and other devices to stall. Intel’s profits fell by $1 billion in Q4 2011, according to data cited by Citi Research in 2014. And the total estimated losses attributed to the floods were $45.7 billion, according to Citi.

That seems like a more appropriate time to blame the weather.

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More From Business Insider

wickedlyclever  asked:

Hi, Lala! I'm going to be in San Francisco Oct 11-14 on a business trip, but I'm in charge of planning a team outing, too. Can you please suggest some good neighborhoods for walking, shopping, and sightseeing? Thanks in advance! 😊

What a great time to come to SF–the weather is unusually good in October. 

Here are some suggestions on streets to walk down:

Irving Street in the Sunset District: Start from Sunset Boulevard down Irving Street–lots of food (mostly Asian) and if you keep going you’ll hit 9th and Irving where there are some cute shops (Ambiance and Wishbone). From there, if you go down 9th Avenue, you’ll get into Golden Gate Park near the California Academy of Sciences and the DeYoung Museun.

Union Street in Marina District: Mostly high-end stores but Marmalade and Covet are cute and reasonably priced. If you’re eating down there, try Belga, Sessions in the Presidio, and the Presidio Social Club. The Mrs. Doubtfire house is around there on Steiner Street and if you keep going West, you’ll hit Grove Street where the school from The Princess Diaries is where you can enter the Presidio; Letterman Digital is located home of Industrial Light & Magic and the Yoda Fountain!

Valencia Street in the Mission: Lots of shops, food, and hipsters. Try out Delfina Pizzeria, Dandelion Chocolate, Craftsman and Wolves, Mau, Baretta, and Boba Guys (if you’re into that). Density and Cary Lane are two places that I shop at and, if you want to buy some makeup, The Balm has their only store on Valencia and 19th. 

There is also a great papuseria called Panchita’s Restaurant #2; its on 16th and Valencia.

Also, keep walking up towards 24th and if you hit Anthony’s Cookies, you need to try the Cookies and Cream.

Past Valenica and 16th, you’ll hit Dolores Park, Mission High School (Again!), and Mission Dolores.

Feel free to message me when you’re around if you need anything! 

Off to Monument 78

Michael Wiehart ended his thru-hike in 2015 in the southern Sierra but was determined to return in 2016 and start from the Canadian border and walk his way south. “The PCT stuck in my mind and pulled me back. I am back with only one ambition, never to make it about the mileage again, but to enjoy every wondrous step, no matter how far this will take me…”

You can follow Michael on his journey south at:  http://visualcomforts.com/walkingnorth/

By Michael “Rip” Wiehart

At some point before the start of my hike the snow levels in the Washington Cascades were 140% above average, and I was looking forward to the journey both excited and a little bit in awe of the challenges ahead. But just in the last weeks before the start, unusually warm weather and rain decimated the snowpack to a level where the hike wouldn’t be as technical, and I set out on the journey without brushing up on my snow skills.

As a southbound SOBO hiker one gets to walk an additional 30 miles, because the US Border Control does not allow wilderness entries from Canada, so everyone has to “yoyo” from Harts Pass to the border and back.

To my surprise the biggest challenge wasn’t the snow but the almost daily rain and thunderstorms together with hundreds of downed pine trees that littered the trail like a gigantic mikado. Sometimes multiple trees tangled into a seemingly impassable maze. There were sections on which the trail was barely visible under all the fallen trees or as they are called blowdowns, and I had to climb over, under or bushwhack around them.

After Stehekin everything completely changed, the weather turned nice and warm, the sense of flowers, herbs and pine trees in the air, huckleberries, salmonberries and thimbleberries bushes are loaded and line the trail. Walking through an alpine meadow in full bloom or a forest of majestic douglas furs is just magical. – Ahh life on the trail is good!