I’m late getting to this, but @zukanerd asked me to explain the science behind my foreshadowing abilities regarding things like taidan, transfers, etc. This is by no means REAL or OFFICIAL, just a collection of signals that have tended to fit into some kind of pattern over the years. Feel free to add your own if I forget something!
For top otokoyaku/top combis who are definitely going to leave together, sometimes they hit you over the head with a big flashing neon TAIDAN!! billboard by putting references to the star’s name in the title of the production. The most recent example is Dramatic S; it came right at Chigi’s 3 year mark and they tend not to name shows in that way unless it’s a sendoff. Sometimes it’s less obvious or they use/reference one of the star’s kanji somewhere—for example, Misty Station (the “Kiri” in Kiriya Hiromu means mist). References to eternity/things ending or starting over are also sometimes a tip off (”Twilight” in the title of Soragumi’s next show, Phoenix Takarazuka, Takarazuka ∞ Mugen, Forever Love, etc). That one is not as reliable but can spell taidan around the 3 year mark. Solo shows can also be an indicator. A Motion in Umeda main hall (which is huge), Chie’s Budokan concert. Masaki faked us out by taking two.
Bonus top otokoyaku NON-TAIDAN sign: only 23% of top otokoyaku have ever retired on a 2-act performance. So while it’s not impossible for a top star to retire on a 2-act, the odds are definitely against it. There was speculation that Mirio might announce her retirement after Yamataikoku wraps up in Takarazuka, but before that Poe no Ichizoku, a 2-act, was announced, so chances are she will not be retiring until the FOLLOWING Grand Theater performance at the earliest.
For top musumeyaku who leave separately, it’s harder to say and sometimes there isn’t a clear sign. It’s reasonable to look for this to happen when a top musumeyaku is on her second+ partner and gets an iconic role that would boost her OG career opportunities (for example, Ranno Hana and Otori Rei both left on Elisabeth and Misaki Rion left shortly after). I also don’t know a single top musumeyaku other than Chapi who has ever gotten a music salon and NOT retired.
For non-top stars, it’s not really about signs so much as it is categories of candidates. Anyone ken-10+ with no star track potential is a candidate to leave with any Grand Theater show, and their chances increase a bit when a top star is retiring and the new top star is their junior. A lot of forever background types choose to leave early to pursue families/other careers before they get “too old.”
It’s really hard to predict exactly who will transfer where, but there are indications that transfers might happen. For example, here are some things I see currently: After Bakumatsu Taiyouden, Yukigumi will have 8 fewer people than Tsukigumi, the next smallest troupe, and 15 fewer people than Soragumi, the largest troupe. Soragumi has too many people who appear to be star tracked. Hoshigumi has kind of a messy hierarchy after Coto. It just makes for a general feeling of instability, and I think a shuffle is going to happen this year.
Generally if someone is obviously star tracked and blocked, there is a good chance they will be transferred. Daimon was a perfect example; she was Mirio’s nibante, but they’re in the same class, and waiting on Mirio would have made Daimon a very old top star AND pushed back the timeline on everyone else in Hanagumi. Now she’ll be top at the end of next month and Mirio probably still has over a year in her.
Also when a young musumeyaku who has had some shinko leads and/or is heavily sponsored transfers, often it’s to become the next top musumeyaku of that troupe.
All of this just covers patterns! It doesn’t account for special circumstances (like injuries) or general rumors surrounding specific people, which definitely also happen (will we see a curveball named Miya Rurika????), but it’s a starting point!
☼: Which sienne is your favorite? What do you like about them? Which role of theirs did you enjoy most? ♡: If you could dance with any sienne, who would you choose? What dance scene is your favorite? If you could see more of one particular dance style in Takarazuka, what would it be? ♬: If you were a sienne, what would your dinner show be like? What songs would you do, and who else would you have perform with you? What would your theme be? ✂: If you could have any Takarazuka character’s wardrobe, who would you choose? What Takarazuka costume is your favorite? What type of costumes would you like to see more of? ¥: If you could design one piece of Takarazuka merchandise, what would you make? What’s your favorite piece of merchandise (not inc. VHS/DVDs/BDs/CDs) in your own collection? What item is currently at the top of your “to buy” list? ✉: Do you have any cool Takarazuka stuff in the mail to you right now? Have you ever written a letter to a sienne? If you had to send a Takarazuka-themed care package to another fan to cheer them up, what would you send them?
★: What show would you love to see restaged? What would you most like to see a Takarazuka adaption of? What do you hope there is never a Takarazuka adaption of?
☾: Do you prefer otokoyaku fashion or musumeyaku fashion? If you could put any five otokoyaku in a boy band together, who would you choose? Who are your three favorite musumeyaku?
: Which top combi is your favorite, including OGs? What’s your favorite duet? Which pair dance is your favorite?
What’s your favorite solo? Which revue song always gets stuck in your head? What song do you skip? ❄:
Which Nihonmono is your favourite? What’s your favorite Shakespeare adaption? What bow hall show did you you enjoy most?
people who wanted maa and mirion to taidan together in a six hour long spectacle culminating in a pair dance to the mortal kombat theme
and people who firmly believe that maa is so in love with mirion AS A CONCEPT that she rigged everything so mirion could say her own goodbyes and then once retired they could both probably just be irl top combi forever and move in together in a treehouse in the woods somewhere with 800000 dogs
Eritan was asked ’what’s something you like about musumeyaku?’ and she replied ’when an otokoyaku touches a musumeyaku and the musumeyaku gets flustered and draws back. Then the otokoyaku notices it andgetsflustered.’ She then describes the exchange like ball catching.
This is probably the best and cutest thing I’ve ever heard about an otokoyaku/musumeyaku relationship.
A new victor claimed the Vans Girls Combi Classic title on Saturday when 15-year-old Poppy Star from Australia won her first official Pro contest! Poppy has been a rising star over the last few years ever since she dominated the 14 and under division to earn first in the rankings during the 2014 World Cup Skateboarding bowl series. In 2015, she follows suit and finished the year off again as #1 in the 15 and over division.
With a triumphant performance that fueled competition against four previous Combi Pool winners, Poppy Star claimed her first Combi Classic title. Final scores for the podium resulted in close calls for the entire competitive field, only to award 2013 title holder Nora Vasconcellos with second place, and Vans team rider Lizzie Armanto with third place.
Yesterday, I was bored and it was too late in the night day to do anything productive so I researched which Troupe has produced the most Top Stars/musume and where exactly did they reign.
Idek if this has been done before, i was just killing time.
LONG POST AHEAD, PREPARE TO SCROLL IF YOU’RE NHFT
For convenience reasons I only went with people who became Top after (or around, but mostly after) 1980, when the Top Star system allegedly started working things were too fluid before the berubara yonkyou.
Sources are takawiki.com, japanese wikipedia, and googling fansites and retired stars’ official profiles for fact confirmation whenever needed.
This is by no means a definitive list, if you see any mistakes feel free to shoot me a note.
Lists are categorized by Troupe assignment right after hatsubutai and ordered by inauguration date (may not be 100% correct but i did my best).
Brackets state which Troupe each sienne ended up being the Top of.
Asterisks (*) designate a haenuki top. [A haenuki top is someone who became top by rising through the ranks of the troupe they were initially assigned to, without ever being transfered elsewhere.]
Includes some talking-to-myself comments/observations in between.
Top Stars originating in Flower Troupe
Setouchi Miya (Star) Taira Michi (Snow) Anju Mira (Flower)* Maya Miki (Flower)* Makoto Tsubasa (Moon) Shizuki Asato (Cosmos) Aika Mire (Flower)* Shibuki Jun (Moon) Kouju Tatsuki (Star) Takumi Hibiki (Flower)* Haruno Sumire (Flower)* Asami Hikaru (Snow) Sena Jun (Moon) Kiriya Hiromu (Moon) Ranju Tomu (Flower) Sou Kazuho (Snow) Asaka Manato (Cosmos)
Hanagumi has produced by far the most tops the past 35 years, but apparently does not do very well with keeping them. In the musumeyaku front in particular, out of the 6 haenuki top musume, half are from before the 90′s and then it’s like, one a decade.
Kuroki Hitomi (Moon)* Kodama Ai (Moon)* Asano Kayo (Moon)* Kazahana Mai (Moon)* Sen Hosachi (Flower) Dan Rei (Moon/Star) Shirahane Yuri (Star/Snow) Shijou Rui (Cosmos) Yumesaki Nene (Star) Ranno Hana (Flower) Manaki Reika (Moon)* Sakihi Miyu (Snow)
Tsukigumi seems to either make their own top stars or supply from Hana, the only slight exception being Saeko who wandered a bit before returning to her original troupe. There’s a possibility Masao’s successor will break this pattern, though. Note how Masachapi is the first tsuki haenuki top combi since Kuze Seika/Kazahana Mai.
Top Stars originating in Snow Troupe
Jun Mitsuki (Flower) Oura Mizuki (Flower) Mori Keaki (Snow)* Ichiro Maki (Snow)* Takane Fubuki (Snow)* Wao Youka (Cosmos) Takashiro Kei (Cosmos) Aran Kei (Star) Otozuki Kei (Snow)* Ouki Kaname (Cosmos)
Yukigumi has supplied most of Soragumi’s top stars up to date (with Tsuki and Hana tied on second place at 2 each). In recent years they are also raising their own top musume for the most part. It’s also interesting how the 90′s were a chain of haenuki tops in the 3 troupes so far. It’s like they were mostly keeping it tidy then Soragumi happened and boom, major overhaul all around.
Azuma Chiaki (Snow/Star) Haruka Kurara (Star/Snow)* Minakaze Mai (Star)* Koujou Reika (Star)* Akishino Miho (Flower) Marimo Eri (Star)* Hanafusa Mari (Snow/Cosmos) yasqueen.gif Hoshina Yuuri (Star) Emi Kurara (Moon) Hizuki Hana (Cosmos) Aono Yuki (Moon) Hinami Fuu (Star)*
Hoshigumi generally either grows its own tops or sends them to Hana. Since Ootori Ran there seems to be a pattern of alternating between haenuki tops and people who got transfered in (with Wataru’s adventures in Sora and Senka land being the only mild distortion). At the time this is being written the pattern is expected to continue. On the musumeyaku front, look at that list and try to tell me Hoshigumi is not cultivating ground for some real boss musume. Doesn’t seem to keep them unfortunately. Fuu-chan is the first haenuki hoshi top musume in 26 years. Note also, how Ume is to date (October 2015), the only Soragumi top to come from Hoshi (edit: Hanafusa Mari is also from Hoshi originally, the heck @me).
Top Stars originating in Cosmos Troupe
Sagiri Seina (Snow)
Top musumeyaku originating in Cosmos Troupe
Toono Asuka (Star) Kano Maria (Flower)
Well, that was short. Didn’t even bother to write the totals. Being the newest troupe by a landslide has these side effects. Poor Soragumi has never had a haenuki top in its history, in either role and Sora fans are positively starving for one. Many were hoping Kai would be that but now that this is gone up in smoke hope currently rests with Ai-chan, probably (and on the musumeyaku front, Urara. And/or Hoshikaze Madoka? there really is no telling with Hankyu decisions). The future lies ahead, Soragumi!
New Star Troupe Top Star Special Report: Hokushou Kairi [Part 1 of 2]
This is a quite long feature, so I’m posting the first 2 sections separately from the last one.
The November 2015 issue of Graph had introductory statements and Q&As with the new Top Combi (Hokushou Kairi and Hinami Fuu) and nibante Kurenai Yuzuru. This part has Micchan’s introduction and ‘letters’ between Micchan and Fuu.
The legendary top combi of Star Troupe / Hoshigumi, Takarazuka.
Yuzuki Reon and Yumesaki Nene.
It is my pleasure to be introduced to Takarazuka by Chie and Nene.
Thank you so much ;)
According to the Sankei Shinbun, there were 12,000 fans demachi at Hibiya and 26,000 fans watching live viewing in various cinemas in Japan (and Taiwan!), and it’s the biggest number ever in Takarazuka history!
I am sure there are actually lot more fans out there in the world, who didn’t / can’t make it to the last show (including myself). But the hoshigumi legend lives on in our hearts ;) (starts weeping)
*check out twits by Takarazuka fans then you will get more pictures of the day