Louis’s first selfie came about 38 hours before the ‘birth’. Now, I’m pretty sure Briana wasn’t in labour for 38 hours… and even if that were a possibility, his caption was 'can’t sleep’, so obviously he couldn’t have a clue that Freddie was gonna be born the next day (unless… it’s not real (: ). 20 January/21 January
His second selfie was five days before the birth certificate was available (4 February/9 February). I would ignore this one because five days gives him plausible deniability, butttttt the birth certificate was issued the day before (3 February), prrrrrrrrrrrrretty sure he didn’t know exactly when In Touch was gonna publish it but was made aware that they had it. 3 February/4 February
His third selfie was the day before he posted a picture with the kid. 18 February/19 February
His fourth selfie was minutes before Briana posted a picture with the kid (she had only two pictures of the kid so far, the first one the hospital one, right after Louis posted his, the second one was just hands. This was the second one in which she actually showed the kid. We had a very small amount of photos by then). 22 February/22 February
His sixth selfie the day of the shitshow at the Brits. 24 February/24 February
His seventh and eight selfies were weird (almost back to back) and accompanied by emo shit. They were in March when we speculated it was gonna end. Nothing baby related happened. We’ll probably never know what they meant. MY take on this: he was told the ending was pushed back. 11 March
His ninth selfie was, again, the day before posting a baby pic on Instagram. Please note that he only posted pictures of the baby on Instagram without posting a selfie beforehand TWICE. The first picture, and the picture with Lottie in Calabasas Commons, this second time, he posted a selfie almost immediately after the baby one. 6 April/7 April
His tenth selfie is the aforementioned one that followed up the baby picture with Lottie. 12 April/12 April
His eleventh selfie was right before another Freddie pic (a couple of hours later). 14 April/14 April
His twelfth selfie was two days before pap pictures with Danielle and Freddie surfaced. Note: the selfie was taken in a hotel in Calabasas. The pap pictures were taken in a different hotel in Calabasas. The pap pictures were delayed (it’s possible that Louis didn’t know the exact time in which those pap pictures would be released since they were released several days after they were taken). 7 May/9 May (delayed pics)
His thirteenth selfie was taken three days before an audio of him talking about being a father was released. Again, the audio was taken days before it was released. I’m willing to bet he didn’t know the exact timing of these things being released. 3 June/6 June (delayed audio)
His fourteenth selfie was taken an hour before pap pictures of him with Danielle and Freddie at the beach were released by TMZ (who is likely working with him, it makes sense that he would know the exact timing of this). 14 June/14 June
His fifteenth selfie was taken a few hours before posting a picture with Freddie and a ukulele. 1 August/1 August
His sixteenth picture is the only one that had nothing baby related happening right before or right after and couldn’t be explained as delaying things (it could, but we don’t have information to speculate that). 8 August
His seventeenth picture came right before he posted a picture of the baby on his 'private’ Facebook. When that picture didn’t leak, he posted it on his Instagram. 17 September/17 September
Where am I going with this, since there already is a masterpost about it? There isn’t an explainable pattern about these selfies. Not a pattern that would make sense with an actual father of an actual child. In the last eight months, he posted seventeen pictures and fourteen of them had a DIRECT connection with something baby related. Two of the remaining ones were likely because of the end of it being postponed and only ONE of them doesn’t fit the pattern. 16/17 (14/17 if you’re being picky) is too strong of a pattern to be a coincidence, especially when he doesn’t post baby pictures without posting a selfie before (or right after). The pattern of posting a selfie right before or after a baby picture is 7/8.
The theory of ‘he’s showing he’s in control of his Instagram’ doesn’t hold up, because
He posted one before the birth (he even posted it when he couldn’t know the birth was going to happen, which I find hilarious), before pap pictures, before Briana’s pictures, before audios, before the birth certificate. That’s certainly not to prove he’s in control of his Instagram. What would his Instagram have to do with any of this?
He posted some the day before posting Freddie pictures. How is posting a selfie the day before proof that he’s on his Instagram 24 hours later? And what would the MO be? ‘Right, so I’m posting a picture of Freddie tomorrow, so to prove them that it’s me controlling it, imma post a selfie right now’. This makes no sense. It WOULD make sense if he wanted to build a pattern. Which is what he did.
The only selfies that were more than a day apart from the event are the ones that he had no control over (pap pictures that were delayed, an audio that was delayed, the birth certificate that the media outlet had, but he couldn’t know exactly when was gonna be released). All the other selfies were within the day before or the same day of the event happening. As time went by, the time between the selfies and the events tightened.
The only times where something significant happened and we had no selfies were the first baby picture he posted, when something baby related was happening almost every day (late March/April) and he would’ve been obligated to post selfies all day every day to keep up, or mentions in print interviews/articles. Off the top of my head, I can’t think of anything else that was baby related and didn’t have a selfie.
The only time he posted a selfie to warn about something Briana related was the first time she posted a picture with the kid with a visible face (not counting the one at the hospital because it was almost immediately after he posted his, and we already established that that one was the only exception of posting a baby picture on his insta with no selfie). He doesn’t warn about Briana/her family with the kid (probably because they do whatever they want and he doesn’t really care).
Tl;dr there’s no other way to explain the warning selfie than: he’s warning his fans about something baby related happening. You have to blatantly ignore reality, believe that the universe hates him or be incredibly naïve to believe otherwise if you think this isn’t the case after examining the facts closely.