the investors

politico.com
Investors turned off by Trump's protectionist talk
Dow gives back gains as new president paints picture of 'American carnage.' By BEN WHITE

NEW YORK — Wall Street did not exactly celebrate President Donald Trump’s deeply populist inaugural address on Friday, with the stock market losing some of its early gains as the 45th president spoke darkly of “American carnage” and promised a new era of trade protectionism.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose about 100 points before Trump took the oath of office but began slipping as the new president promised to protect the country from foreign trade. That was a signal to investors that harsh rhetoric from the campaign trail could soon be policy reality.

“We must protect our borders from the ravages of other countries making our products, stealing our companies and destroying our jobs,” Trump said. “Protection will lead to great prosperity and strength.”

The direct invocation of protectionism surprised some on Wall Street who expected a more uplifting message from the new president. Big companies that make up major stock market indices tend to benefit from free trade and could see their profits hurt by significant import tariffs.

Read more here

forbes.com
How Crowdfunding Can Supercharge Your Campaign In 2016
Crowdfunding has helped a lot of businesses recently. Want to join the queue? Here's how to raise funds for your projects.
By Harold Stark

The power of crowdfunding is for every inventor. Fund An Idea allows
inventors to try and raise the funds and find the supporters needed to
bring their projects to life.

8 Years of Politics, Obama, and the Stock Market

It is not the President’s primary job to look after the stock market. But it is still interesting to look back on how certain policies may have impacted markets and how people invested during that time.

Below, you will find a chart of the S&P 500 $SPY ETF since Barack Obama became President of the United States. Some pretty crazy things happened over the last 8 years. That included the Financial Crisis, the rise of ISIS, Russia taking Crimea and the Fiscal Cliff.

At times, it really did feel like the world was going to come to a standstill.

Yet, despite it all, the S&P 500 climbed 166% since 2009 and withstood some seriously intense headline risk. So here it is. One chart to sum up as much as possible:

15 Quotes I Love About Value Investing

I recently read about 40 pages of quotes from value investors around the world. The quotes were compiled by Value Investor Insight and they’ve made the entire collection free for anyone to read — you can view them all here.

But for those who don’t want to read all 40 pages, I’ve highlighted 15 of my favorite quotes below. By journaling and sharing them here, I hope they help my investment process going forward and also yours.

1. It is one of the hardest things to do and that is to remain a disciplined, long-term investor at all times.

“If the entire country became securities analysts, memorized Benjamin Graham’s Intelligent Investor and regularly attend- ed Warren Buffett’s annual shareholder meetings, most people would, nevertheless, find themselves irresistibly drawn to hot initial public offerings, momentum strategies and investment fads. People would still find it tempting to day-trade and perform technical analysis of stock charts. A country of security analysts would still overreact. In short, even the best-trained investors would make the same mistakes that investors have been making forever, and for the same immutable reason — that they cannot help it.” Seth Klarman

2. Value investors need to harness time and use it tactically.

“Time arbitrage just means exploiting the fact that most investors — institutional, individual, mutual funds or hedge funds — tend to have very short-term time horizons, have rapid turnover or are trying to exploit very short-term anomalies in the market. So the market looks extremely efficient in the short run. In an environment with massive short-term data over- load and with people concerned about minute-to-minute performance, the inefficiencies are likely to be looking out beyond, say, 12 months.” Bill Miller

3. Great investment ideas are not necessarily complicated.

“There’s a clarity that comes with great ideas: You can explain why something’s a great business, how and why it’s cheap, why it’s cheap for temporary reasons and how, on a normal basis, it should be trad- ing at a much higher level. You’re never sitting there on the 40th page of your spreadsheet, as Buffett would say, agonizing over whether you should buy or not.” Joel Greenblatt

4. There’s a perception that numbers, quants, and algorithms rule the stock market, but it’s so much more than that.

“I think my background has helped me learn to think well conceptually. Investing is not just about numbers. It’s also about imagination and structure and narrative and characters — the types of things we liberal-arts majors should know something about.” John Burbank

5. You should be able to defend your highest conviction investments at all times.

“There’s a virtuous cycle when people have to defend challenges to their ideas. Any gaps in thinking or analysis become clear pretty quickly when smart people ask good, logical questions. You can’t be a good value investor without being an independent thinker — you’re seeing valuations that the market is not appreciating. But it’s critical that you understand why the market isn’t seeing the value you do. The back and forth that goes on in the investment process helps you get at that.” Joel Greenblatt

6. Your edge is not going to come from data or news, it’s going to come from something of your creativity.

“Everyone tends to see the same things, read the same newspapers and get the same data feeds. The only way to arrive at a different answer from everybody else is to organize the data in different ways, or bring to the analytic process things that are not typically present.” Bill Miller

7. A good investment is not entirely dependent on the balance sheet, it’s also about the management team.

“We tend to be more about the jockey than the horse. It’s important to under- stand how people are going to behave under stress. You don’t have to predict the future if you know the company has the assets and management to do well in difficult times. I believe that’s when the seeds for exceptional performance are planted.” Bruce Berkowitz

8. Every investment should have a price, and if it’s not there now, you will be rewarded greatly if it ends up there down the road.

“Our best ideas tend to come from what I call “old research, new events.” That’s typically the good company you’ve studied carefully and would love to own at the right price, that gets marked down after it trips or its industry goes out of favor.” Ricky Sandler

9. Always remember that a cheap investment is cheap for a reason and cheap does not automatically make it a value.

“One of the big mistakes value investors can make is to be too enamored with absolute cheapness. If you focus on statistical cheapness, you’re often driven to businesses serving shrinking markets or that have developed structural disadvantages that make it more likely they’re going to lose market share.” Bill Nygren

10. You must know your circle of competence and when you should or should not be investing.

“I’d always said that if a guy was long the best 50 companies he knew and short the 50 worst, if that didn’t work you were in the wrong business. But that strategy was literally a recipe for bankruptcy from 1998 to 2000. I said when I closed down that it was a market I didn’t understand, and I didn’t.” Julian Robertson

11. Change your outlook on life, it will spark the little things, which in turn will lead to the big things.

“People who are in a good mood are more inclined to try learning new skills, to see things in a broader context, to think of creative solutions to problems, to work well with other people, and to persist instead of giving up. If you were writing a recipe for how to make more money, those are among the first ingredients you would include.” Jason Zweig

12. Human psychology plays a massive role in the world of investing.

“To suppose that the value of a common stock is determined purely by a corporation’s earnings discounted by the relevant interest rates and adjusted for the marginal tax rate is to forget that people have burned witches, gone to war on a whim, risen to the defense of Joseph Stalin and believed Orson Wells when he told them over the radio that the Martians had landed.” Jim Grant

13. Durability is a trait you should never overlook.

“The key to investing is not assessing how much an industry is going to affect society, or how much it will grow, but rather determining the competitive advantage of any given company and, above all, the durability of that advantage.” Warren E. Buffett

14. Avoid complacency and stay vigilant.

“One of the economists who has heavily influenced the way I think is Hyman Minsky, who always said, “Stability begets instability.” The very idea is that the more stable things appear, the more dangerous the ultimate outcome will be because people start to assume everything will be all right and end up doing stupid things.” James Montier

15. I am making this investment today because… You need to be able to answer that every single time.

“I never buy anything unless I can fill out on a piece of paper my reasons. I may be wrong, but I would know the answer to that. “I’m paying $32 billion today for the Coca Cola Company because.” If you can’t answer that question, you shouldn’t buy it. If you can answer that question, and you do it a few times, you’ll make a lot of money.” Warren Buffett

if yg says bom is the reason 2ne1 disbanded and neither she nor minzy are signed with yg anymore, then why not invite minzy for the final track???? sure, she’s signed, but that’s a dick move then on the part of calling bom back.

plus tbh it’s just rude to blackjacks; we never saw a time of 2ne1 without minzy, so why would their goodbye be without her? she’s not allowed to take part in that process?

and before anyone says “oh, but minzy is with another company now” …she didn’t even hear about it??? like, they didn’t even TRY to involve her.

6 Top Motivations That Drive The Best Entrepreneurs

Some of the most effective and intrinsic motivations for today’s entrepreneurs would include the following:

1. Making a difference in the world.

2. Find personal meaning from building a business.

3. Satisfaction of doing something great.

4. Personal growth and accomplishment.

5. Seeing the real value of one’s beliefs.

6. Helping others achieve their goals.

The primary message here is not to hide your real motivation from yourself, your team, or your investors. Read more >

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I was having lunch in a restaurant with a friend and watching tv and I literally said louder that I should “IS THE KING OF SPAIN!!!!!!!“, but since I was without glasses (which I should not do but I always do) I was not sure - myopic moment.

Finally confirmed King Felipe was in Portugal at the funeral of Mário Soares

3 Simple Steps To Boost Your Financial Confidence

When you’re struggling with money, financial confidence is usually nowhere in sight. This could very easily lead to spiraling out of control and getting yourself into a worse position with your money.Whatever your situation, you can gain financial confidence by following three principles:

1. Commit to achieving your goals.

2. Build up some courage.

3. Acquire capabilities leading to success.

Read more.

Why Tesla's recent stock rally has caught Wall Street off guard

(Sorry, bears.AP)
For the past few years, Tesla has presented a pattern appealing to skeptics of the company’s future — and investors who want to short the stock, or who are just Tesla bears.

The pattern has played out like this: Tesla misses its yearly guidance for deliveries. Analysts then note that Tesla isn’t making any money, it’s burning a lot of cash by trying to grow its business, competitors are multiplying, the electric-vehicle market is globally tiny, and CEO Elon Musk is stretched thin running Tesla and SpaceX.

The stock price slides, typically recovering only after some positive sentiment develops after first-quarter earnings are reported and shares start to look like a bargain. News events can also revive optimism — Tesla offers a new version of a vehicle or unleashes a software update, that type of thing.

The pattern hasn’t been repeated thus far in late 2016 into early 2017. In fact, Tesla has been enjoying a nice rally. Shares are up about 10% since the beginning of the year and have risen nearly 20% over the past three months.

Caught off guard

That surge has caught Wall Street off guard as much as the automaker’s third-quarter profit was a surprise. Morgan Stanley’s lead auto analyst, Adam Jonas — one of the biggest Tesla bulls on the Street — has slashed his target price for Tesla from $450, but last week he upped it from a conservative $242 to $305 with Morgan’s equivalent of a buy rating.

(What a rally looks like.Markets Insider)

Jonas is hedging a bit — Tesla’s peak stock price, reached in 2014 during trading, was $298. But Jonas has changed both his view of the carmaker’s ability to launch its $35,000 Model 3 on schedule in late 2017 and his expectations that Tesla will be able to create a business out of car-sharing with the so-called “Tesla Network,” which could be worth over $70 per share of Tesla. (Because it doesn’t currently exist, it’s worth zero.)

So Tesla is rallying at a time when it should be swooning, and the biggest Tesla bull is regaining his optimism.

Added to this is Musk’s unanticipated connection to President Donald Trump. Musk has joined Trump’s council of business leaders, and numerous market observers have pointed out that Tesla is an American company expanding production at both its California plant and its giant battery plant in Nevada, where it plans to create some 6,500 jobs.

In his note upgrading Tesla, Jonas outlined the bear case for the stock, which for his team takes the price to $50. Essentially, that case defines Tesla as a niche player with limited sales growth and that doesn’t meet Musk’s goal of delivering 500,000 vehicles annually by 2018.

Knocking down the bears

(Go back to sleep.Reuters/Denis Balibouse)

The more aggressive bear case for Tesla is that it’s a cash-burning machine, devoid of reliable profits from its various lines of business — including energy storage and solar power, after the 2015 acquisition of SolarCity — with a distracted CEO and an inability to meet its own delivery targets.

Tesla is starting to knock down some of those criticisms. The company looked to end 2016 with more cash on hand than expected — a situation that CFO Jason Wheeler chalked up to increasing efficiency throughout the company. This has pushed back on the widely held belief that Tesla would need to raise more capital in early to mid-2017.

Profits could also become more routine, although it’s unlikely they’ll be predictable. It just depends on Tesla’s ability to build, sell, and lease more vehicles. It also hinges on the company selling as many emissions credits as it can when it needs to. (Tesla can accrue a lot of zero-emission-vehicle credits because none of its cars produce emissions.)

Musk’s job is getting easier

Finally, Musk’s job at Tesla should be getting easier. He said that he and the company were in “production hell” with the fraught Model X SUV in early 2016, but he no longer has to sleep next to the assembly line. Tesla also hired Peter Hochholdinger from Audi to improve and accelerate production.

Musk is still the top guy, but he got the automaker to a place where he can relax about the Model S and Model X and focus more closely on enhancing Autopilot, Tesla’s semi-self-driving technology, and getting the Model 3 launched on time.

(Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images)

And there’s one other thing: Tesla is getting better at building cars.

The company has always built good cars — so good that Consumer Reports had to recalibrate its testing scale for the Model S. But Tesla is now plunging into a potentially significant manufacturing experiment that could be the first innovation in car-making since Toyota pioneered its vaunted Toyota Production System after World War II. Much of the experiment could involve widespread automation of Tesla’s factories.

An example of how far Tesla has come in the past three years: Production has grown from about 30,000 vehicles in 2014 to 50,000 in 2015 to over 80,000 in 2016. As production speeds up, that “500,000 by 2018” goal has become more realistic. And remember, it was 500,000 by 2020 before Musk moved up the timetable.

Taken together, these improvements have started to rapidly undermine the bear case — more rapidly, it seems, than the bears expected.

The future is still full of challenges for Tesla. But at the beginning of 2017, it has started to get the Wall Street bulls back on its side.

NOW WATCH: Elon Musk came up with an ingenious solution to a Tesla owner’s Twitter complaint in just 6 days



More From Business Insider
The Thundering Herd


I came across these two awesome charts that needed to be shared. Over the last year or so a tremendous amount of money has gone into passive investing and rightfully so. At the same time, it’s pretty amazing how many have given up on trying to beat the market. Like Kevin Durant; if you can’t beat’em, join them.

This chart has gone parabolic.


But investors are a fickle bunch, easy comes, easy goes. In other words, those who threw in the towel without having any conviction behind their move will be the first ones to bail on the first setback. 

A great many either don’t know, turned a blind eye, or have yet to accept the fact that everything goes through ebb and flow. Good times, bad times, hot and cold, peaks and valleys, etc.

I get the feeling that many who jumped on the passive bandwagon forgot that the market while it mostly goes up, it also goes down. It won’t always be sunshine and rainbows. 

The chart below shows you the ebb and flow of funds outperforming the SP500.  A very astute observation was made by @Babak; “notice the lows seem to correspond to market tops, early 1970′s, 1987, 1999.”




Before you lose your wig, I am not implying that we are going to top, what I’m pointing out is that this all a natural process. This is the way things work, good times are followed by subpar times, and it is always darkest before dawn. You should not be surprised when we have the inevitable retracement.

Top performing managers from 2000-2010, the top quartile who ended with the best record 97% of them spent at least 3 of those 10 years in the bottom half of performance. 79% spent at least 3 years at the bottom quartile of performance, 47% of those who ended up with the best record spent at least 3 of the 10 years at the bottom decile of performance.

To reiterate something that I have said before; many managers (hedge funds, endowments) need the market to have down years in able to outperform. A lot of the outperformance from funds comes from avoiding down years, I wrote about it here (WHY HEDGE FUNDS NEED DOWN YEARS).


source; Cheap Beta


Frank Zorrilla, Registered Advisor In New York. If you need a second opinion, suggestions, and or feedback in regards to the market feel free to reach me at fzorrilla@zorcapital.com or 646-480-7463.

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We live in a world in which we are bombarded with information, tweets, blogs, etc., content is the new salesman, content is the new marketing, content is the new networking. With information being so readily available, bloggers try to differentiate themselves with their writing skills, volume, and consistency, putting out blog posts to meet quotas. We are working to stand out from the crowd by showing performance, by taking all the information and seeking alpha, that’s the sole purpose of the blog. It won’t always be pretty, it’s never easy, and performance is spotty, but we seek superior risk-adjusted returns, not notoriety for our writing skills.  If this is something you can relate to, then this blog might be for you.

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