t: wpg

It doesn't seem real yet.

He’s here, and he’s perfect. Everything moved so fast it still feels like a dream.
This morning my contractions were 4 minutes apart so we came in to L&D around 830 or so. I was still the same 2cm dilated, 70% effaced as I was on Wednesday and he was still no where near engaged. But he was sunny side up. So that explained the pain I was in.
They sent us to walk around for an hour in hopes to see some progreas and upon our return there was no change so home we went at noon. Before we left the midwife said she was sure I’d be back either tonight or tomorrow, and that as soon as he turned over that I was going straight into active hard labor.
Fast forward to 340 or so, I was laying in bed with my leg on some pillows, and I started to doze off when I felt the pop. We called the hospital and told them we were on our way. I got to the hospital and got up to maternity at about 405. I was on the monitor for a whopping 12 minutes and had only barely gotten the IV put in when my body decided that it was pushin time. I went from 7 to 10cm in 2 contractions and there was no stopping anything. The midwife barely had her gloves on.
Liam was born at 4:24pm, at 7lb 7oz and 20.5 inches. His Apgar scores were 8 and 9.
There was no time for any pain relief, so I got the natural birth that I’ve always wanted and been too afraid of. No tearing, no stitches or interventions or anything.
After all of that the only pain or discomfort I feel right now is because I’ve been stuck in this damn bed and my tailbone is killing me.

Exit Trade: Wolf Minerals

Wolf Minerals released its anticipated DFS on Monday with rather disappointing results. I sold out immediately on the news (after a mad scramble to skim read the announcement), which turned out to be a good call as the price has nose dived:

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Here were my key take away points from the announcement:

  1. NPV of $AU118m with APT price $US360 / mtu (almost half fully diluted market cap at time of announcement)
  2. NPV of $AU214 at current APT prices
  3. Project for 9.25yrs instead of 13yrs
  4. Capital expenditure circa $AU160 as expected
  5. Opex higher than originally expected (this had large impact on calculated NVP’s)
  6. The mining operation would be for 345k mtu instead of the anticipated 360k mtu

The NPV values are certainly lower than my spreadsheet calculations had showed. This was a combination of points (3), (5) and (6).

The company expects to equity finance 50% of the project, so if they can get the SP to $1.00 then that will almost double the number of shares on issue, not leaving much upside for investors.

I would expect a capital raising around $0.40c when the time comes… barring an even more miraculous increase in APT prices in the short term.

As a very rough calcualtion, assume a cap raising at 0.50c:

  • $80m / $0.50 = 160m shares = ~270m shares total on issue post capital raising
  • NPV = 214m (at current APt prices) = $0.80 share price = 100% return from here
  • Return would probably not be realised until the project is fully commissioned

The numbers aren’t as good as i hoped, but WLF will continue to be a great play for raw tungsten exposure.

While I am still bullish on the Tungsten market as a whole, I’m currently cautious of a down turn in commodity prices and the Chinese growth story… but that’s probably a post for another time.

Trade Details

I traded in and out of WLF and WLFO with most buys taking place from $0.32 - $0.42 and most sells > $0.50