I know, I’ve been gone forever, future dwellers. I got a new job, moved to a new city, and I’ve finally got my feet back on the ground. New episodes of the podcast are coming, but to tide you over, here’s a little something I’ve been working on for my day job.
For those of you who are into watching professionals wash and wax a hundred-year-old French woman, take a look at this behind-the-scenes video of conservation work on Rodin’s Eve.
WASHINGTON–President Obama and Xi Jinping, the Chinese leader, emerged over the weekend in California from their first lengthy talks declaring their determination to keep disputes over cyberespionage and territorial claims in the Pacific from descending into a cold war mentality and to avoid the pitfalls of a rising power confronting an established one.
But officials on both sides described forces at work in Beijing and in Washington that risked pushing Mr. Obama and Mr. Xi into exactly the trap they warned against.
American intelligence officials have told Mr. Obama that the cyberattacks on American companies emanating from China, which have swept up billions of dollars’ worth of intellectual property, are caused by the increasing desperation inside China to keep its economy growing at 7 or 8 percent a year. Chinese leaders consider that rate necessary to create enough jobs for the millions of young Chinese who flock to the coastal manufacturing centers each year.
The territorial claims are an expression of China’s sense that it is ready to seize its moment as a global power. American officials who attended the summit meeting at the Sunnylands estate in Rancho Mirage, Calif., say Mr. Xi gave no ground on those claims.
Mr. Obama’s team was looking for indications of how the new Chinese president–more confident and probably more powerful than his predecessor–would balance his nation’s short-term needs and its long-term interests.
“There was definitely an intent to send a signal to the bureaucracies on both sides that any kind of downward spiral into overt and sustained competition would not be in either side’s interest,” said one senior American official who participated in some of the meetings. But on the questions of cyberattacks and territorial claims, “that is where you would see a flash of nationalism,” the official said.
This meeting was not concerned with suppressing those flashes, but with managing them. “This was the most important meeting between an American president and a Chinese leader in 40 years, since Nixon and Mao, ” said Joseph S. Nye Jr., a Harvard political scientist who once guided the preparation of National Intelligence Estimates, including some that tracked China’s economic and military rise. He said Mr. Obama was right to work on first creating a relationship and a tone, and dealing with specific conflicts later.
That might be a lesson from Mr. Obama’s dealings with the Chinese leadership during his first term. He began in 2009 by making it clear to Hu Jintao, Mr. Xi’s predecessor, that the United States was not seeking to contain Chinese power; Mr. Obama said in a speech delivered on his first trip to China that the United States could not do so even if it tried. The speech was part of a careful effort to reassure the Chinese that the United States was willing to make room for a new superpower, as long as it played by international rules. For a while, there was talk of a “G-2,” an economic collaboration between the largest- and second-largest economies in the world.
That talk evaporated quickly. By 2010, China’s military had made it clear that it viewed Mr. Obama’s overture as an expression of American weakness. Beijing’s confrontations in the South China Sea with Vietnam and the Philippines intensified; so did a dispute with Japan over a pile of rocks with virtually no economic value to either nation.
Mr. Obama angrily told aides that he needed “leverage” over the Chinese, according to several officials. And Hillary Rodham Clinton, then the secretary of state, asked the Australian prime minister over lunch, “How do you deal toughly with your banker?” according to a diplomatic cable disclosed by WikiLeaks.
Now, with Mr. Xi in charge in China, Mr. Obama sees a chance to restart the relationship.
So far, Mr. Obama’s approach has been to try to get China to agree to what the president calls “norms” of behavior, akin to trade rules. But with Mr. Xi at his side, Mr. Obama observed that “these are uncharted waters” because “you don’t have the kinds of protocols that have governed military issues, for example, and arms issues, where nations have a lot of experience in trying to negotiate what’s acceptable and what’s not.”
Nor is there trust: the Chinese point out that the United States has used cyberattacks as an offensive weapon against Iran while the Pentagon warned in a recent report that China was pouring huge resources into a cyberarsenal of its own.
China’s military sees American technological power as one more form of pressure to be countered, just like the American naval presence in the Pacific. That is zero-sum cold war thinking–but China and the United States are far more economically interdependent than the United States and the Soviet Union ever were.
That is no guarantee that the two leaders will work out what Mr. Xi calls a “new type of great-power relationship.” But each man clearly understands the damage that the other could do to his legacy, and each has a motive for reining in the forces that would argue for continued low-level confrontation.
U.S. and China Move Closer on North Korea, but Not on Cyberespionage
By Jackie Calmes and Steven Lee Myers, NY Times, June 8, 2013
RANCHO MIRAGE, Calif.–Even as they pledged to build “a new model” of relations, President Obama and President Xi Jinping of China ended two days of informal meetings here on Saturday moving closer on pressuring a nuclear North Korea and addressing climate change, but remaining sharply divided over cyberespionage and other issues that have divided the countries for years.
Although the leaders of the world’s two biggest powers made no public statements on their second day of talks, their disagreements–over cyberattacks as well as arms sales to Taiwan, maritime territorial disputes in the South China Sea and manipulation of the Chinese currency–spilled into the open when senior officials from both countries emerged to describe the meetings in detail.
From the outset, the White House said the purpose of the meetings here was not to announce new deals or understandings–“deliverables,” in diplomatic parlance–but to create a more comfortable relationship between Mr. Obama and Mr. Xi, who took full power in March, that could avoid plunging the two nations into escalating conflict.
Even so, the White House announced that the two countries had reached at least one concrete accord that environmentalists welcomed as a potential step in combating climate change. China and the United States agreed to discuss ways to reduce emissions of hydrofluorocarbons, known as HFCs, that are used in refrigerants and insulating foams.
Mr. Obama and Mr. Xi also found areas of agreement over North Korea, which under pressure from China has muted a flurry of belligerent statements after nuclear and missile tests this year. After suspending nearly all contact with South Korea, the North has in recent weeks reversed course, and on Sunday officials of the two countries are to meet at a border village to arrange the first cabinet minister-level meeting in six years.
Mr. Obama’s administration has welcomed China’s new assertiveness with its neighbor and ally, believing that it reflects a new calculation that a constant state of crisis on the Korean Peninsula is destabilizing for the Chinese as well. The two presidents held a long discussion on North Korea over what Tom Donilon, Mr. Obama’s departing national security adviser, called “a very lively dinner” on Friday, and he said that they agreed that dealing with the country’s nuclear arsenal was a promising arena for “enhanced cooperation.”
“They agreed that North Korea has to denuclearize, that neither country will accept North Korea as a nuclear-armed state” and that their two nations would work together to achieve that through pressure on Pyongyang, Mr. Donilon said.
The two presidents met for nearly eight hours beginning Friday evening, and appeared eager to redefine the relationship in a way that would allow their countries to overcome their economic, political and diplomatic differences, rather than letting new–or old–crises derail progress across the spectrum of issues.
On the most contentious issue in recent months–American accusations that Chinese corporations linked to the military had pilfered military and economic secrets and property in cyberspace–the officials seemed to speak past each other. That dominated Saturday’s talks here at a secluded estate, but ended without a clear acknowledgment by Mr. Xi of any culpability.
In remarks during a joint appearance on Friday night, Mr. Obama at least publicly softened his language and spread the blame for the hacking and theft of business, financial and military information. “Those are not issues that are unique to the U.S.-China relationship,” the president said. “Those are issues that are of international concern. Oftentimes it’s nonstate actors who are engaging in these issues as well.”
He added, “We’re going to have to work very hard to build a system of defenses and protections, both in the private sector and in the public sector, even as we negotiate with other countries around setting up common rules of the road.” And, Mr. Obama said, China would face similar threats as its economy develops–Mr. Xi suggested it already had–“which is why I believe we can work together on this rather than at cross-purposes.”
Mr. Yang said that the two discussed a host of contentious issues and “did not shy away from differences.” Mr. Xi called on the United States to end its arms sales to Taiwan, he said, and reasserted its territorial claims, while pledging to resolve them peacefully. Mr. Yang also defended China’s control of its currency and said it was not the core trade issue between them.
Broadly, though, both leaders urged cooperation, not conflict. Mr. Obama called for joint efforts to address climate change, including through sharing clean-energy technologies, and to establish better military communications so “that we each understand our strategic objectives at the military as well as the political levels.”
Mr. Xi agreed. “China and the United States must find a new path,” he said, “one that is different from the inevitable confrontation and conflict between the major countries of the past.”
The Chinese president, who as a young man lived for a time with a family in Iowa and visited again during a trip to the United States last year as vice president, said he and Mr. Obama would keep “close communication” through letters, phone calls, bilateral meetings and visits, adding, “I invited President Obama to come to China at an appropriate time for a similar meeting like this.”
For all the advance talk of the informality of the meetings, they largely followed well-established diplomatic routine, and the necessary translations limited spontaneity. The two leaders sat opposite each other at a conference table, flanked by their senior aides and interpreters. When they appeared before journalists, briefly, they selected one American and one Chinese reporter to ask a question each. According to White House officials, they then continued their discussion until 10:44 p.m. over a dinner that lasted almost two hours–including lobster tamales, porterhouse steak and cherry pie, prepared on site by the celebrity chef Bobby Flay.
Mr. Obama stayed overnight at the Sunnylands retreat, a 25,000-square-foot Modernist mansion that was the winter oasis of the billionaire publisher and Republican patron Walter H. Annenberg, but the Chinese party chose to stay at a nearby hotel.
After breakfast on Saturday, the two presidents resumed discussions. They emerged first from the main house at Sunnylands and strolled across a bucolic expanse of grass and over a pedestrian bridge with the San Jacinto Mountains as a spectacular backdrop. Wearing shirts open at the neck and no jackets, they were accompanied only by their interpreters, and their discussion could not be discerned.
Mr. Obama, Mr. Xi and their all-male attendants forsook ties, which was just as well, since the room at the Annenberg estate where they met seemed uncomfortably hot at times. But perhaps understandably, given the personalities of both leaders, there was little sign of backslapping bonhomie in what administration officials had advertised as an “unscripted” setting.
After the talks ended on Saturday, Mr. Obama and Mr. Xi had tea with Mr. Xi’s wife, Peng Liyuan, a famed singer and major general, and Madame Ni, the wife of the Chinese ambassador to the United Nations. The Chinese delegation left the retreat about noon. For Mr. Xi, it ended a trip that last week had him in Trinidad and Tobago, Costa Rica and Mexico–another sign of Beijing’s global ambitions and search for new energy sources.
Mr. Obama planned to stay another night at Sunnylands. After Mr. Xi’s departure, he golfed on the estate’s nine-hole course–one Republican presidents since Dwight D. Eisenhower have played–with three friends from his high-school days in Hawaii, despite temperatures exceeding 100 degrees.
Sunnylands, Rancho Mirage, Calif. Once a private winter retreat for the Annenbergs, now a center that will host those working towards global peace. A. Quincy Jones in pink; mid-century guest casitas line the private golf course.