#MarketUpdate: Is the growing US economy going to lead to a rate hike in 2015?
Stocks are mixed today, as the growing US economy appears consistent with comments by the Federal and possibly setting up a 2015 rate hike. Dow -0.02%, S&P -0.1%, Nasdaq +0.2%, R2000 0.1%
On the economic front, quarterly GDP showed us that the economy picked up the pace in the 2nd quarter and 1st quarter revisions were adjusted from an initial negative 0.2% to +0.6%. Also, weekly jobless claims saw a slight increase (+12k, to 267k) this past week, but remained at historic lows and further confirmed a robust jobs market.
July has been a dismal month for Commodity prices, with growth in China decelerating and a strong US dollar. The Bloomberg Commodity Index is off by more than 9.5% in July, the largest monthly decline since September 2011 and falling to lowest level since March 2002.
Shares of Western Digital are soaring today (10%), following quarterly results and on pace for its best day since July 2012. Of the 139 S&P 500 companies have released earnings this week, EPS remains strong (74% beat rate), but it’s not carrying over to Revenue (50% beat rate).
Technical TakeDespite the bullish push above resistances yesterday (assist Dr. Yellen), that’s history now as we’re seeing a lack of commitment to follow through in the form of buying interest at these levels. We urged caution yesterday that we’d likely see another swing lower before we can get the green light to rally and we still believe that’s what is most likely. Watch for a return of strength in the leaders and at least stabilization in the laggards for first sign of a turn.Continue to be wary of strength in energy, materials and industrials as likely short-lived, short covering rallies which would not be indicative of broader market strength.
Last session the S&P 500 Index (SPX) did close above 2100 as resistance but as we see today, traders are not ready to push higher yet. Intraday, 2095 the level of the 100 day moving average, will be looked to for support while yesterday’s close will be resistance at 2108.
The Nasdaq Composite Index is also meandering lower after its marginal close above 5100 as resistance yesterday. For today we’ll watch 5076 as support which is congruent with the 50 day moving average and yesterday’s close will be resistance at 5111. Contributing to the index’s weakness is Biotech, which for the second day in a row is the weakest of all sectors and tech, the next weakest because FB’s earnings were apparently, but unsurprisingly, not good enough after the parabolic rip into them.
Today’s chart shows the numbers for the percentage of stocks above their 50 and 10 day moving averages for the members of the Nasdaq Composite Index. Fuel for rally or just another demonstration of poor breadth?
Stock workers took a break outside the New York Stock Exchange after a computer glitch halted trading, July 8, 2015. A software update installed last night at the exchange is suspected of causing the shutdown.
Exchange officials ruled out hackers for the glitch, saying on Twitter, “the issue we are experiencing is an internal technical issue and is not the result of a cyber breach.”
Floor traders milled about inside the exchange, with a few going outside to Wall Street, while officials tried to get systems back up and running.
The glitch is the latest to hit the exchange in the past few years, underscoring how reliant traders have become on software. The unexpected trading outage lasted over three hours before trading resumed.
yep. I drop in a percentage every month straight out of my paycheck and my company matches it each month as well. That money then gets invested in moderate risk stock opportunities but I may get more aggressive while I am so young.
Do it now. Even if it’s a dollar each month… that money will grow on a larger interest than it ever will sitting in a bank account!
Let’s assume you are in high school right now (17 years old let’s say) and only can afford to put in $50 a month. Well let’s just see what happens with even that small amount. $50 a month for 12 months is $600 a year
$600 a year x 8 years is 4800 that is already building interest by time you are 25. That’s without even trying or investing or having someone match you (like an employeer). You have money for your future without even feeling it in your normal bank account. That money that sits there is building interest and can be invested into small stocks without you even worrying about it or caring because you are already too busy in college. As your career builds and you pay off your student loans you can drop a few extra bucks into your 401K or invest a bit more aggressively. By the time you are 25 you will have a job (hopefully) and your employeer will match a percentage or a complete match dollar for dollar. That means you get free money… if you put in $100 a month so does your employer. $100 a month x 12 is $1200 and your employer matches with $1200 as well. That’s free money. $1200 X 10 years is $12,000 that you got for free as a perk for working with your company or the many companies you work for that follow. As you build your career you can obviously afford to put more into it and you build and build and build. I like the word free and I like it even more when money is involved lol. If our generation was a tad bit more resourceful we would cap out in our 50′s and live our remaining years on an island somewhere. That’s my plan at least.
From 2002 to the beginning of 2003, Nvidia stock (NVDA) was in a downtrend. Notice the blue and red spots on the chart. At the start of 2003, the stock recovered and rose from 2003 to 2006. Detect the price action between the red and the green spots.
During the bullish phase it crossed above the fifty percent Fibonacci retracement level (horizontal turquoise line) of the prior bearish trend. The dark green spot highlighted the retest of the 50% level which provided a viable bullish setup.
After the bullish setup, market participants bought the stock which rose from mid 2006 up to the last quarter of 2007.
Spot the bullish progression between dark green spot and thepink. A second bullish price structure (a higher low) is also noted (see the black spot on the chart). From the highest price level (pink spot) in 2007, the stock pulled back to the
black horizontal line, but failed to find more buyers because
of the 2007-2008 financial crisis.
Notice that swing traders and investors who ignored the trading
triangle (at the orange spot) had to close their positions before the
second down move. At the time of this writing in October 2013,
the stock is “hovering around” the initial 50% Fibonacci retracement level.
TSTW SYS 008 traders should now insert this stock on their watchlist
without assuming anything. Watch the educational videos below to
Momentum Stock Market Game Plan
Momentum Stock Strategist David Bartosiak describes two momentum stocks you need to add to your stock market game plan for today. First you have Stryker. Stryker Corporation develops, manufactures, and markets specialty surgical and medical products, …