statistics-lie

Some ways that statistics can lie to you without ever falsifying their data:

  • Reframing a small absolute difference as a large relative difference. For example, it’s technically correct to describe an increase from 0.01% to 0.04% as a 300% increase - but is a +0.03% bump what you’d assume to be the case if you heard the phrase “300% increase”?
  • Using one type of average while implying that you’re talking about a different type of average. For example, if a company has nine employees who make $10/hour and one manager who makes $60/hour, you can take the mean average and state with technical truthfulness that the average wage is $15/hour, even though no actual person makes that.
  • Reporting accuracy in terms of the absence of false negatives without considering the presence of false positives. A test that returns a positive result 95% of the time when what it’s looking for is present may sound reasonably accurate - but what if I told you that it also returns a positive result 30% of the time when what it’s looking for isn’t present?
Alternative Hospitals in Trump World

A friend posted this:

“I am inspired by the Betsy DeVos nomination. It has opened my eyes to a whole new career for me!

In the true entrepreneurial spirit embraced by Trump and most Republicans, and unencumbered by government regulation, I plan to declare myself a physician and open a Charter Hospital. This will be an alternative choice to the American Medical Association (AMA) dominated hospitals strangled by the insistence of the AMA that doctors go to medical school and actually become certified in their specialties. Patients deserve CHOICE. After all, such traditional hospitals are complete failures. Statistics never lie. It is indisputable that 100% of the patients seen in these traditional hospitals will eventually die. … SAD.

Hiring will start immediately for prospective physicians, nursing staff, and support personnel. If you’ve always wanted to be an orthopedic surgeon, but did not want to waste time in classes learning the so called “methods” of surgery and other useless classes supposedly relevant to the medical profession, here is your chance to wield the knife!! Myself, I’ve always been fascinated by the heart. After all, it’s just a pump, I’ve used pumps, how hard can it be to fix one?
We will select only the healthiest of patients to admit and will immediately return to traditional hospitals any patients who do not meet our standards of curability, good health, quality care when they return home, and most important… the ability to pay.
Anticipating success in the pilot hospital to be housed in the closed Pathmark store on Route 1 (They already have meat lockers installed to deal with the unavoidable mistakes every startup makes) I am already thinking about franchising my business model in order to give more choice to patients nationwide. An IPO is in the offing. As a subsidiary to my brick and mortar hospitals, I will also offer online courses for the benefit of those clients who would prefer to perform surgery on their loved ones at home.

I am so looking forward to receiving payments from traditional hospitals in the area to fund my private project. Even though they struggle to have the most modern of diagnostic machines I’m sure they won’t mind funding my collection of outdated, used medical equipment operated by employees with little or no training, in buildings not designed for medical care. That such payments increase the costs for those remaining in traditional hospitals is neither my problem nor my concern. Patients will be transported to my hospital by traditional ambulances, but any resulting costs will be billed to the appropriate traditional hospital anywhere within ten miles of my service area. (Even if that ten mile straight line distance means a 30 mile road trip to cross a river).

My hospital will be run as a non-profit but I’m figuring MY salary should be upwards of seven figures since I am quite the visionary. I will be able to do this by paying my employees much less than they could earn in a traditional hospital. But don’t miss out on the opportunity to build YOUR wealth. Loosely based on the Betsy DeVos family owned Amway “this is not a pyramid scheme” Business, you too can rake in the cash merely by “sponsoring” others who will warehouse ever increasing amounts of medical equipment and supplies in their garages. These “downline distributors” will do this for you so they can someday (usually never, but we don’t need to tell them the success rate) earn their own Diamond Pin and begin to exploit others on their own.
Your ability to grow will be limited only by your conscience.
To those friends already criticizing my idea saying there will be no standards or accountability in my venture, I say “Phooey”
Every one of my brain surgeons will be required to submit a receipt showing they stayed at a Holiday Inn within the five year period before they decided gray matter was their playground.
Make Hospitals Great Again! This is going to be BIGLY!!”

Statistics Don’t Lie

I looked up the Google Trends info for the search term “Aaron Tveit” and this is what I found:

That little bump around 2013 was when Les Mis came out, introducing Aaron to audiences worldwide for the first time (including me). It then continued due to his lead role on Graceland, but slowly petered out until this week when BOOM Grease: Live happened, with 12.18 million people watching (and that’s in the US alone!), making the graph skyrocket upwards!

Hold on to your seats, ladies and gentlemen, because we are in for a wild ride!

You (the press) are often unjust.
You ask me shitty questions, you contest my value/quality.
That always happens here in Spain, year after year.
It looks like I’m shit. The view that you convey is that I am shit.
The truth is that the numbers do not lie, statistics never lie! Look at the statistics, it’s easy.
— 

- Cristiano Ronaldo (x)

Listening to this mixture of anger, sadness and despair in his voice is heart-breaking. He appears so utterly fed up.
And it’s true, they always seek to make him the scapegoat.

anonymous asked:

I don't know where to find the source about Sakura called as "Strongest Kunoichi in the World" where can I find it?

As far as I’m aware, there isn’t an actual quote for it, but it’s just been explicitly indicated that Sakura did indeed become the world’s strongest kunoichi. Because here’s the thing:

  • We’re told that Tsunade was the strongest kunoichi in the world during her prime:
  • We’re told that Team 7 eventually became the next generation of Sannin, essentially taking the place of their masters:
  • And It was also foreshadowed by Kakashi:
  • Indicated by Hashirama:
  • And implied by Sakura herself:

That she had surpassed her master (just as Naruto and Sasuke had surpassed theirs). She had surpassed Tsunade, who was the strongest kunoichi in the world.

Therefore, literally everything points to Sakura now being the current strongest kunoichi in the world on paper. That’s not to say that it’s impossible for her to lose to another kunoichi; being stronger than your opponent doesn’t guarantee your victory. But the statistics don’t lie.

#103: “Statistics based on more than a half-million births occurring in New York City hospitals between 1948 and 1957 show a significantly greater number of births taking place during the waning moon than during the waxing moon.”

False.                   

This is from a book called Supernature. One part in this book talks about how humans are connected to the moon, including birth. The book then cites this factoid: In 1959, the births in New York City hospitals were correlated with moon phases to see if anything significant related to the supposed effect the moon has on people came up.

This factoid gives the result, but the “significantly greater number” was only one percent. Furthermore, other birth statistics were studied at different times, and the same correlation wasn’t found in any of them. In fact, another half-million births were studied, and more births were found to be during the waxing moon than during the waning moon. So there’s absolutely zero correlation between birth and the moon phases.

Supernature is talking complete nonsense as well. When you consider that the moon follows a limited calendar and when you consider that the date of women’s periods (which is tied to conception and therefore birth) can be all over the place, then that theory is pretty much dead in the water. The Amazon reviews also point out that the book, though an interesting read, is full of speculation and doesn’t really have any solid facts. This is why books, like many other resources, aren’t always a hundred percent reliable.

Reference: 

Watson, Lyall. Supernature. New York, NY: Anchor Press/Doubleday, 1973. Print.

A WOMAN IS OFTEN MEASURED

 BY THE THINGS SHE CANNOT

CONTROL. SHE IS MEASURED BY THE WAY

HER BODY CURVES OR DOESN’T CURVE, BY

WHERE SHE IS FLAT OR STRAIGHT OR ROUND.

SHE IS MEASURED BY 36-24-36 AND INCHES

AND AGES AND NUMBERS, BY ALL THE OUT-

SIDE THINGS THAT DON’T EVER ADD UP TO

WHO SHE IS ON THE INSIDE. AND SO IF A

WOMAN IS TO BE MEASURED LET HER BE

MEASURED BY THE THINGS SHE CAN

CONTROL, BY WHO SHE IS AND WHO SHE IS

TRYING TO BECOME. BECAUSE AS EVERY

WOMAN KNOWS, MEASUREMENTS ARE ONLY

STATISTICS. AND STATISTICS LIE.

Just Do It.