stability ep

anonymous asked:

do you think sungwoon or taehyung will make it to top 11?

Hey buddy, this is a week old, I’m so sorry ;__;

Okay let’s look at their rank progression:

Okay, let’s look at the trajectories. Sungwoon had a small rise and then remained stable. However, that stability is outside of the current cut off. Taehyun had a sharper rise with a slight dip in episode 6 but it’s very impressive that he regained his stability in ep. 8. This was probably due to the Shape of You performance and the fact that he had an extra week to accumulate votes after the performance aired. Sungwoon did not have this extra week after Downpour to accumulate votes. 

Taehyun’s Ep. 5 Numbers:

He had a good lead on Youngmin but that changed drastically in the following rankings. Overall, these three are very even in terms of popularity at this point. Not much to analyze here unfortunately.

Taehyun’s Ep. 8 Numbers:

Okay here it’s interesting. Notice how he has less of a popularity percentage than Taedong (although both are low) BUT he’s higher ranked. This is because of the onsite benefit. Even with the benefit though, there’s a gap between him and Minki (who didn’t have the benefit). His percentage did not grow significantly for me to say it’s true popularity growth and not just a larger voting pool. Taedong’s percentage on the other hand, especially without a benefit, shows more possible true growth. 

Sungwoon’s Ep. 5 Numbers:

Okay, he’s not doing too badly here. His percentage is low but this was during the cut from 97 so this is a good rank. Not much else to analyze here but it’s interesting to see that Dongho started off around the same rank as Sungwoon but he shot up. 

Sungwoon’s Ep.8 Numbers:

Sungwoon fell 4 ranks and lose a couple of percentage points. This could be because there are more voters at this point. It also didn’t help that the Downpour performance was aired right before votes closed so he didn’t have time to accumulate votes like Taehyun did. His Ep. 8 rank is also really unstable because it’s very close to both #24 and #26. A precarious position to be in especially when only top 20 survived Ep. 10 eliminations. 

My thoughts:

I think that out of the two, Taehyun has the highest chance if we’re going by data- he’s shown growth and is currently around the elimination mark. That being said, Taehyun and Sungwoon are not one of the popular 2 pick pairings so this might have affected them in a bad way for Ep. 10 rankings. It’s too late for a good edit (and Taehyun already got a good leader edit in ep. 6- even though it wasn’t one of the biggest of the show). In addition, both received few votes in Episode 9 (Sungwoon got 32, Taehyun got 6)- so it’s not looking too good for them from a numbers point of view. :/

Sungwoon got some focus during episode 9 so hopefully it helped with his votes. They both seem to have a decent fanbase but it might not be enough to save them.  At least one of them (or hopefully both) may make the top 20 cut. But I don’t think they’ll be able to make top 11 unless they get an amazing edit. It’s just a little too late in the game to be able to accumulate a bigger fanbase in order to compete with the fanbases of the current top 11 (who all have percentages in the 30′s and up) :’(

However, these predictions are not 100% accurate!! There isn’t enough data for truly accurate predictions and I have no idea what other things can influence rankings so don’t lose hope!!!