shield the survivors

Survivorship Bias

I have posted about survivorship bias and how it affects your career choices: how a Hollywood actor giving the classic “follow your dreams and never give up” line is bad advice and is pure survivorship bias at work.

When I read up on the wikipedia page, I encountered an interesting story:

During WWII the US  Air Force wanted to minimize bomber losses to enemy fire. The Center for Naval Analyses ran a research on where bombers tend to get hit with the explicit aim of enforcing the parts of the airframe that is most likely to receive incoming fire. This is what they came up with:


So, they said: the red dots are where bombers are most likely to be hit, so put some more armor on those parts to make the bombers more resilient. That looked like a logical conclusion, until Abraham Wald - a mathematician - started asking questions: 

- how did you obtain that data?
- well, we looked at every bomber returning from a raid, marked the damages on the airframe on a sheet and collected the sheets from all allied air bases over months. What you see is the result of hundreds of those sheets.
- and your conclusion?
- well, the red dots are where the bombers were hit. So let’s enforce those parts because they are most exposed to enemy fire. 
- no. the red dots are where a bomber can take a hit and return. The bombers that took a hit to the ailerons, the engines or the cockpit never made it home. That’s why they are absent in your data. The blank spots are exactly where you have to enforce the airframe, so those bombers can return.

This is survivorship bias. You only see a subset of the outcomes. The ones that made it far enough to be visible. Look out for absence of data. Sometimes they tell a story of their own.

BTW: You can see the result of this research today. This is the exact reason the A-10 has the pilot sitting in a titanium armor bathtub and has it’s engines placed high and shielded.

LIST OF MATCHES THAT PROVE ROMAN REIGNS CAN WRESTLE

- The Shields debut match at TLC (2012)
- The Shield, and The Real Americans vs the Usos, Goldust, Cody Rhodes and Rey Mysterio - Survivor Series (2013)
- The Shield vs Evolution at Extreme Rules (2014)
- The Shield vs the Wyatt Family - Elimination Chamber (2014)
- Roman vs Daniel Bryan - Fast lane 2015
- Roman vs Brock - Wrestlemania 31
- Roman vs Big Show - Extreme Rules 2015
- Roman VS Sheamus - Raw (14th December 2015)
-Roman vs Dean - Survivor Series 2015
- Roman VS Dean vs Brock - Fast lane 2016
- The Shield Triple Threat - Battleground 2016
- Literally any of his matches against AJ Styles

Feel free to add your own

  • What she says: I'm fine.
  • What she means: SETH AND ROMAN TEAMED UP AGAINST DEAN AND SETH AND DEAN FOUGHT AND THEN DEAN GOT ELIMINATED BUT THE HE CAME OUT TO FIGHT AJ AND THEN POWERBOMBED HIM WITH HIS FORMER BROTHERS AND IM CRYING RN I HAVE NEVER BEEN SO HAPPY THE SHIELD REUNITED EVEN IF IT WAS FOR A FEW MINUTES BUT THIS MADE MY LIFE AND IM NOT OKAY
6

TV Renewals Update - ABC (May 11):

  • Once Upon a Time has been renewed for Season 7
  • Black-ish has been renewed for Season 4
  • Marvel’s Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D has been renewed for Season 5
  • The Goldbergs has been renewed for Seasons 5 and 6
  • Designated Survivor has been renewed for Season 2
  • American Housewife has been renewed for Season 2
Heel Turn or SHIELD Reunion?

So, it’s looking like at Survivor Series it is going to be Dean and Seth vs the Usos for the Raw vs Smackdown fight. They should make Roman the guest referee, and either have Roman help Dean and Seth win, reforming the Shield, or have Roman help the Usos win, which causes Dean and Seth to get angry and do a heel turn.