# probability distributions

This shows that the probability of a random variable is maximum at the average and diminishes as one goes away from it, eventually leading to a bell-curve.

Date a girl who’s uncertain. Date a girl who’s negative. Date a girl who is both a particle and wave. Date a girl who exists as a probability distribution. Date a girl who is an electron. Date an electron.

Character for Finnish lore themed d&d campaign.

[ Following text is currently off-limits information for fellow players in the group ]

Hello! There is this fantasy world I'm making where a lot of the magic used would be some kind of dark magic (like necromancy, blood rituals and so on). This doesn't necessarily have negative implications in-world but I was wondering, would it be best to leave my POC characters out of these practices? I know there are negative stereotypes involved with magic for certain groups, but would this be alright if I tried to avoid those stereotypes and also have white characters use magic?

## Characters of Color involved in “Dark Magic”

We wouldn’t think it fair to leave PoC and other marginalized people out of the magic use besides the cases where magic conflicts due to ethnicity, stereotypes, or religion.

Some Magic Conflicts to Avoid:

If the magic use is evenly and diversely distributed, it’s probably fine, so have some characters of a given race use “dark” magic and other characters of the same race use other kinds of magic.  As long as you avoid magic for those groups that do object to it, and magic that has some kind of damaging stereotype associated with it, like Black characters doing Hollywood voodoo (We’ve discussed voodoo representation here a lot) or Indian-type characters doing some Temple of Doom monkey-brain eating s**t.

In short, go for even distribution, and have sensitivity for certain groups where this would apply.

–WWC

2

Week 41. This week’s highlights: We watched Emir for our Filipino class. It’s a musical film and it was quite great. We also had a test on Discrete Probability Distributions. To be honest, I feel anxious because I think I did not do well. I’ll just wait for the results and try harder next time. On the other hand, most of the week was spent with dear Photoshop since I had to finish different posters for the Student Council.

More original posts here. |  Credits to protectmccall for the photos I used in the spread.

Named Discrete Random Variables & Their Distributions

E[Love]

## PART 1 | calculate the expectation of love.

student!jungkook + tutor!jimin = math!jikook ;)

OR

alternatively, 16k+ of self-indulgent romantic crack, unnecessary dialogue and really bad math humour as reluctant math major Jungkook sets out on his quest for love.

Happy Valentine’s Day~!  ♥ This is for @gracefulweather! She should know I probably destroyed my midterm mark thanks to her.

read the full story on AO3

An interesting video about Zipf’s Law from Vsauce.

Why did Sam get banned??? Who was king at the time???

I never actually told this whole story, did I?

So the King at the time was apparently Frederick William III, and apparently the ban still continued after he was no longer king, so talk about Sam making an impression, huh?

Anyway, why was Samuel arrested? Because Sam Howe was a magnet for getting into dangerous situations without even realizing or caring.

So in 1830 Sam goes to France to help in a little revolution and to learn more about educating the blind, and while in France Sam meets a gent named Marie-Joseph Paul Yves Roch Gilbert du Motier de Lafayette, the Marquis de Lafayette for short! So Sam and Laffy-Taffy become friends, and that’s when Lafayette asks a favor.

Now Poland had been getting the short end of the stick for CENTURIES, and this time its source of strife was Prussia. There was a refugee crisis happening, and Lafayette asked Sam if he could go to Prussian occupied Poland to deliver money and clothing and food to the people in need. And Sam jumped at the chance. I mean, who wouldn’t? Lafayette asks you for a solid, you damn well do it, you know? He was, however, ordered just to deliver it. Not to distribute it, probably to give him deniability, and THANK GOD FOR THAT. Because things go wrong very quickly at this point.

So Sam does the job, to the gratitude of the Polish people, and then returns to Berlin to check out a school for the blind that existed there. He was followed the whole way there, from Poland to Berlin, and because neither guy was fighting him Sam’s basic reaction was “well that’s suspicious huh?” and does nothing about it.

The day he arrives, he checks into his hotel, and around midnight he hears a knock at his door. He opens it, and guess who’s there? The secret police!!!!!!!

I don’t know how, Sam is very vague and every single book I’ve just looked up is as clueless as me, but somehow Sam talks his way out of getting arrested at that moment, and asks for a few more hours of sleep. If they give him that, he’ll come willingly. I DON’T KNOW HOW THIS WORKED, but it did.

They leave, and Sam immediately goes to work hiding incriminating documents and destroying less important things to throw the police off. He hides the letters from Laffy-Taffy and the Polish Army inside the head of a bust of King Frederick William, and throws everything else into a water basin and the fireplace.

That morning he’s arrested, and is immediately locked away and interrogated, without a warrant and without them actually telling him what he’s in jail for. He’s kept there six weeks, without any contact with the outside world. The Prussian government denied holding him, and friends who investigated were told he had never even set foot in the country. It was apparent that the government was damn well trying to hold him indefinitely, but luckily he managed to get a letter out thanks to a prison guard he befriended, and all of his friends had been pressuring the King for MONTHS to investigate this. Once there was evidence Sam was being held illegally, the Prussian government had to quickly cover its tracks.

So, they let him go. In the middle of the night, he is blindfolded and dragged out of his cell, thrown into a heavily guarded carriage, and told that if he tries to escape the soldiers have orders to shoot on sight.

The carriage drives him 600 miles, and in that time he is given little water and no food, and as soon as they reach the border of France, Sam is kicked out and left in the middle of nowhere, without any of his belongings or money.

He stumbles into a nearby town, and then is finally able to give word about his whereabouts. The Prussian Government then issues a proclamation banning Sam from Prussia forever, and the ban lasts nearly 20 years.

tl;dr

All because Sam did Lafayette a favor.

Some ppl are taking this ticket thing way too far.

Harry didn’t personally decide when and where the venues are, neither did he probably choose to distribute the tickets like this. Yall need to calm down and “not hate Harry every time you see him now” as one anon said.

It feels sort of like my brain won’t decide on what colours it wants to look for, so! I’m going to turn in for today. These are my Pokemon, Denon, Beriot and Lumi!

like i know the ticketmaster code distribution is probably going to work on a lottery and they’ll be given out randomly but i wish there was some sort of cosmic balancing in there like……how long have you been a fan, have you behaved yourself, are you respectful, etc because honestly if one of the stalkers or the demons get tickets and Good People Who Deserve It don’t even get a code???????

• JYP: We've got to find a way to cut down on Twice's expenses. What can we live without?
• Whoever decides Twice's line distributions: Probably Momo.

what's Roko's basilisk?

well now…

actually there’s a pretty good wiki article that explains it here (not the best wiki in general but they cover this pretty well)

The short version is that an inevitable deific artifical intelligence will potentially create a perfect simulation of you and torture that simulation in order to retroactively motivate the present you who is imagining this possibility to donate all your money to the Machine Intelligence Research Institute in order to bring about the development of the artificial intelligence more quickly, and that by merely reading about this possibility you have made this much more likely to happen.

It’s an idea that bubbled up in a transhumanist internet community called Less Wrong and was heavily censored, which is the main reason that it is now famous-ish.

But I’ll have a go at explaining how this idea came up! I’m not sure how much of this you already know about LessWrong et al. but I’ve been kind of meaning to write about these things anyway, so let’s have a go right from the beginning.

This got really really long, putting it behind a cut to spare your dash.

when a physicist doesn’t take someone’s ideas on gravity seriously just because he fell on his ass and thinks he’s got something to contribute, that’s par for the course. few think that’s unfair. impolite, perhaps. but not unfair. it’s not taken to be any kind of judgement re: ability, but rather a recognition of disparate levels of knowledge, which is often a function of hours logged more than anything else.

after three years of grad school, i’ve noticed that same thing about statistics. people seem to have the wherewithal to recognize their “opinion” on probability distributions or whatever aren’t as well founded just because they’ve thrown some dice or played some cards or flipped a coin. when i tell a student they’re incorrect to interpret a p-value as “the probability the null hypothesis is true” rather than “the probability of seeing a result this extreme or more extreme given that we assume the null hypothesis is true”, they might struggle to understand the distinction, but their feelings on the matter are not relevant, and they don’t argue that.

but when it comes to social things, like race or gender or sexuality or even language, that same standard of knowledge doesn’t apply. having also spent years learning about those topics, in the classroom, at conferences, at talks, reading books and articles, writing papers, interacting with students, struggling to recognize social biases that have been taught as facts, and other such labors to synthesize a more rigorous understanding, are easily dismissed.

having spent years studying a topic and being confident in what you know about it is not the same thing as thinking someone else is stupid because they don’t have the same level of knowledge. regardless of what the topic at hand is.

Fifth Harmony Solo Distributions (with graphs!!)

I’ve seen a post about the Reflection solo’s (and I actually use her data) here, but I was interested in how they’ve changed over time, so I also looked at The X Factor performances and the Better Together EP.

Things to keep in mind:

• I counted solos as verses/bridges/choruses/etc. lead by a single member (backing vocals don’t count, but adlibs can count if they are obviously the focus of the track)
• the BT EP was only 6 songs, so the distribution is probably going to be weird, because just one song can change a lot (like Dinah in Who Are You)
• this was done by me with a stopwatch, so I’m probably off by a couple seconds here and there, but the overall trends should still be accurate
• the girls are always listed alphabetically and the tracks are in chronological order
• I’m just doing this because I like statistics, please don’t get mad

So here we go…

Overanalyzing the Love Square

Let’s take a closer look at reveal scenarios and at the four ships that comprise the main Love Square. It seems pretty clear that the only way Adrien would fall in love with Marinette would be if he knew she was Ladybug, and that the only way Marinette would fall in love with Chat Noir would be if she knew he was Adrien. So here’s a diagram illustrating what conditions allow the four ships to sail:

We can clearly see that Ladrien is possible regardless of whose identity is revealed. In order for Adrienette to happen, Adrien has to find out, but Marinette doesn’t. In order for Ladynoir to happen, Marinette has to find out, but Adrien doesn’t. And in order for Noirinette to happen, both have to find out. So we can see that under the conditions leading to Adrienette or Ladynoir, Ladrien will also be possible, and under the conditions leading to Noirinette, any of the four ships will be possible.

At first, this appears as if Ladrien is twice as likely as Adrienette or Ladynoir, both of which are twice as likely as Noirinette. But this is quite misleading, as the four reveal scenarios are not equally likely. It’s unlikely that there’ll be a reveal in season 2. And a two-way reveal is much more likely than a one-sided reveal, as the mechanics of reveals make it difficult for one person to find out without the other finding out. Let’s consider the following probability distribution, which assumes that no reveal is twice as likely as a reveal, and that a two-way reveal is twice as likely as a one-sided reveal:

So, combining this with our previous diagram, we can figure out the probability of each ship being possible during season 2:

So despite the fact that Noirinette is only possible in one scenario, its probability of being possible is only slightly less than those of Adrienette and Ladynoir. And Ladrien is about four times as likely to be possible as any of the others…and that’s because it’s already possible.

To figure out the probability of any one of a set of ships being possible, we can’t add the ship probabilities together; we have to add the reveal probabilities together. So if you want to know what the probability is for any of Adrienette, Ladynoir, or Noirinette happening, it’s not 29% + 29% + 29%. It’s 4% + 4% + 25% = 33%. Therefore, while we’ve got a 100% chance of Ladrien being possible, we’ve got a 33% chance of any of the others being possible.

We have to bear in mind that the probability of a ship being possible isn’t the same as the probability of a ship actually sailing. The fact that both characters act very awkwardly around their love interest can act as a prior, reducing the probability of these ships actually sailing. But regardless of how these affect the probabilities, we can assume they affect them as a constant. So to figure out the probability of each ship sailing, we simply multiply the above probabilities by the awkwardness constant.

Therefore, given this distribution of probabilities of different reveal situations, we can see that the probability of Ladrien sailing is three times as likely as the probability of any one of the other ships sailing, and is four times as likely as any individual other ship sailing. So you’re in luck, Ladrien shippers.

Part:  38

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Some like the rush while others enjoy the dissociation from reality.  The reasons why people use isn’t beyond him.  Losing awareness of the shit in life and forgetting the pain, replacing tension with euphoria, overwhelming anxiety with clouded mental function—it’s a precarious appeal.  Drugs are a temporary fix that feel good.  They’re a stupid man’s easy way out.

Kise hates them.

Countdown to Finals: 14 Days | 18.10.16

I made some probability notes today to help me revise probability distributions!

Will’s just a little stressed. Nico tries, he really does. Solangelo.

:.:

Sons of Apollo, Nico decides, were just not built for high-stakes exams.

Observe the Solace Specimen in its current enclosure: the study lounge at the library. The specimen’s eyebrows are drawn together in a confusion that would’ve been adorable if it wasn’t accompanied by a dark scowl and an occasional muttered curse.

Nico feels bad for him, he really does, but in his defence, he told him not to take that minor in Statistics.

“Having fun?” Nico comments drily. His boyfriend grimaces and very conspicuously slams his head against the table, drawing the wary attention of a few onlookers.

Nico sighs. “Stop that, you’ll get us kicked out.” He leans over to brush the bangs out of his eyes, an affectionate, if unconventional action, and Will’s expression softens momentarily.

And then he jabs at the worksheet. “By the way, you messed up over there.” Will groans.

“Why did I take Stats? I hate Stats. I’m a major in Literature, Styx.” Thunder rumbles in the distance, and Nico casts a wary eye on the perfectly clear skies outside.

“Because,” Nico says patiently, “you insisted that you wanted to empathise with what I was doing with my life. Unfortunately,” he picks up a pencil and begins to efficiently correct Will’s untidy work, “you conveniently forgot that while I’m actually good at Math, you kind of, well, suck.”

Will glares at him. “I hate you.”

“No, you don’t,” Nico says with a tiny smirk. “You’re just not made for sitting indoors for eight to ten hours a day, hacking away at poisson distributions and probabilities. You’re a son of Apollo, right, you’re, like, solar-powered.”

Will scowls as he tugs the worksheet back and begins furiously scribbling. He hasn’t smiled in a while, Nico muses. I miss his smile.

“Hey, Will.”

“Mm?”

“Why is there a gate around cemeteries?” Will looks up in confusion, and Nico grins.

“Because people are dying to get in.”

Will gazes at him blankly. “What?”

“Dying, get it? Ooh, I’ve got another one. Why couldn’t Dracula’s wife get to sleep?”

“…”

“Because of his coffin,” Nico declares. The girl sitting opposite him snickers, before hastily turning her attention back to her laptop.

Will gazes at him incredulously. “Dude, what are you doing?”

“I’m telling you jokes to make you feel better,” Nico says compliantly, and then frowns. “But you aren’t laughing. Why aren’t you laughing?”

Will shakes his head and grins. “You have got to stop spending time with dead people. Vampires, really, Nico?”

“They’re all very nice,” he says blandly, “and besides, their jokes worked. You’re smiling, aren’t you?” He prods his boyfriend’s lips with a pen and smirks triumphantly.

A laugh escapes him despite himself. “Well, A for effort, di Angelo. A plus because you’re cute.”

Nico frowns. “I am not cute. I’m the son of Hades. I’m terrifying.” He bares his teeth playfully, and Will rolls his eyes, reaching over to ruffle his hair.

“A son of Hades that cracks the lamest jokes in history.”

“Shut up and get back to work, Solace.”

:.:

“You wanna hear a pizza joke?”

“…”

“Never mind, it’s pretty cheesy.”

“I bet you got that from Jackson.”

“….Maybe.”