political-polling

Justin Trudeau’s Liberals Getting Their Groove Back, Polls Suggest

By Zi-Ann Lum

It’s not the tectonic shift Liberal strategists may have hoped for, but recent polling suggests Justin Trudeau’s party is starting to get its groove back.

“The Liberals seem to have stopped the bleeding and are now statistically tied with the floundering Conservatives who are over 12 points back from their majority achievement in 2011,“said EKOS president Frank Graves in a report released Friday.

Thomas Mulcair’s NDP remains on top with 30.9 per cent support, a slight increase since last week. The Conservatives follow with 27.3 per cent; the Liberals stick close by with 25.6 per cent.

The Greens slide to 6.6 per cent support.

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This man has a following definitely big enough to win the race. Don’t let the media make you feel as if your votes will not have any effect. He is what we need and what the top 1% are really trying to avoid. REBLOG IF YOU BELIEVE YOUR VOTE MATTERS

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Prime Minister Tom Mulcair? New seat projections, poll show NDP surging across Canada

If an election were held today, Tom Mulcair would be Canada’s next Prime Minister.

The latest seat projections taken from an aggregate of opinion polls suggest Mulcair’s New Democratic Party could win 130 seats in the House of Commons – 11 more than Stephen Harper’s Conservatives and 44 more than Justin Trudeau and the once-powerful Liberal party.

“Two months ago one couldn’t have imagined this,” Barry Kay, a professor at Wilfrid Laurier University said about the seat projections.

Kay and his team at the Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy (LISPOP) compiled the seat projections using a blended, weighted sample of over 8,000 respondents to Ipsos, Angus Reid, and Ekos polls conducted between May 27 and June 23.

And the seat projections show surging support for the federal NDP, and a changing political landscape in Canada since the NDP won the Alberta election.

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Latest Polls Out of Iowa Show Bernie Sanders Gaining Rapidly On Hillary Clinton

The Iowa caucus is the first event in the primary process so this is great news. Continue to spread the word and help Bernie continue to cut the gap. Bernie Sanders 2016!

Now the truth of the matter is, is that politics in a democratic society should not be complicated. … Despite what the media may think, politics is not a baseball game with polls. Politics is not a soap opera. What politics is about in a democratic society is people coming together and improving life for our people.
— 

Bernie Sanders, July 1, 2015

THIS ISN’T A GAME!

NDP now favoured in new polls and seat projection

In the first update since the site went on hiatus two weeks ago, the New Democrats are now leading in both the vote and seat projections for the first time since 2012.

It was quite a two weeks to be away, as it featured some of the most dramatic swings in voting intentions we’ve seen since the immediate aftermath of Justin Trudeau’s Liberal leadership victory. Coupled with the NDP’s surge into first place in every poll conducted by a gaggle of pollsters using every methodology under the sun was the return of Gilles Duceppe as leader of the Bloc Québécois, jarring the race in Quebec as well.

The NDP now leads in the poll average with 32.4%, an increase of over three points since the pre-hiatus projection update. The Conservatives have dropped a little more than one point to 28.9%, while the Liberals are down a little less than one point to 27.4%. The Bloc has moved ahead of the Greens with 5.2% to 4.9%.

In terms of the seat count, the NDP is now projected to win between 113 and 140 seats, up significantly from the pre-hiatus update which did have the NDP overlapping with the Conservatives but still firmly in second place. The Tories have fallen to between 99 and 141 seats, while the Liberals have dropped to between 71 and 106 seats.

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As Obama prepares for tonight’s State of the Union, his job rating on balance is more negative than positive. Currently 43% approve of the way Obama is handling his job as president, while 49% disapprove. While that is little changed since December, a year ago 52% approved of his job performance and 40% disapproved. 

American grad school, Social science research, Bible

1. American graduate school (master’s, PhD) I am a PhD student in marketing at a large American university. I have published academically, presented at conferences, taught undergraduates, taken (many) graduate-level classes, served on graduate student committees, worked with professors, and conducted qualitative and quantitative research.

2. Social science research. I earned my master’s degree in survey methodology, so I can give you details on how to create questionnaires, analyze data, and how political polling works (and how it gets abused). I have also taken graduate level coursework in qualitative research and conducted both interviews and focus groups.

3. Bible (Old and New Testaments). I minored in religion in college, where I took a year of Greek and a year of Hebrew; I also have over fifteen years of experience studying the Bible, its context, and its meanings in English.

In addition, I am a published fantasy novelist (through a small press in Arkansas), and continue to write fantasy in my free time as a hobby.

If anyone has a question about one of these areas, let me know!

http://phillipsauthor.tumblr.com/

Tom Mulcair’s NDP ahead of Liberals and Tories in new poll

The NDP is out in front of the Liberals and Conservatives as October’s federal election draws closer, a new public opinion survey by Forum Research says.

The new poll, conducted Monday and Tuesday, coupled with last month’s Forum poll, shows support for the New Democrats is surging at the moment.

The official Opposition NDP has the backing of 34 per cent of voters, according to the poll, compared to 28 per cent support for the Liberals and 26 per cent for the Conservatives.

Projected up to a 338-seat House of Commons, the results of the Forum survey show Thomas Mulcair’s NDP would capture a 120-seat minority in the next election.

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Americans on Health Care

More than half (54%) of Americans disapprove of Obama’s signature health care reform law, the Affordable Care Act, according to a Pew Research survey from December; 41% said they approved of the law. Nearly half (48%) said the law would make the nation’s health care situation worse in the long run, 35% said it would make it better, and 12% said it wouldn’t make much difference either way.

See more from our #SOTU2014 data roundup.

Nate Silver Did Not Predict The Election

I have truly enjoyed following Nate Silver and FiveThirtyEight this political season. I’ve loved following the push and pull of the numbers against each other as the campaign went on, and Mr. Silver’s explanations of what went into polling and his particular methodology of combining polls.

The hagiography has begun in numerous articles about Nate Silver and other fellow “quants”. But Nate Silver did not predict the election. He crunched the numbers from a variety of polls, interpreted according to a particular methodology, which gave him the confidence to predict, day by day, not that Barack Obama would win the election on Nov. 6, but that if the election were held today, and the polls he aggregated were correct, Barack Obama would win.

A blurb to his book, The Signal and the Noise, contains the prediction paradox: “The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future.” As I followed his blogs, I also followed the comments from readers, especially from the Romney supporters and their wholesale dismissal of Mr. Silver’s analysis. They ranted that the polls were biased, assumed too great a Democratic turnout, and didn’t take enough into account the Romney momentum and that the nation was simply fed up with the last four years.

And Nate Silver agreed 100% with his detractors (actually 16%). In a brilliant column on Nov 2, Mr. Silver echoed everything his detractors were saying. If Romney wins, it will be because the polls are wrong (Well, duh!). If the polls are wrong, it will be because of bias. Maybe the sample was not representative, or maybe the pollsters mispredicted who were likely voters, or maybe the pollster’s processing of results to fit the sample to the expected universe of voters was wrong. It was interesting to read the Romney supporters ranting at Mr. Silver … when he was agreeing with them! On that day, he gave Romney a 16% chance of winning the election, based on the fact that the polls might be biased.

Some of the articles lauding Mr. Silver expressed a bit of dismay that maybe people don’t count, just the math does. But this misunderstands what Mr. Silver and his compatriots do; they predict how people are going to vote by asking them who they are going to vote for!

Mr. Silver’s results, and those of other pollsters and poll aggregators, are only as reliable as the polls themselves, and Mr. Silver’s success came from averaging polls which were themselves rather all over the map. And the reliability of polling going forward is in question. Scott Rasmussen, whose Rasmussen polling results were not too accurate, maintains that this will be the last election for phone polling, and that new techniques will need to be developed and tested. But while this may be raining on Nate’s parade at the height of his success, I’m sure he would be pleased to know that’s it’s all going to get even more interesting!

Virtual three-way tie for who Canadians want as prime minister

NDP Leader Tom Mulcair has come a long way over the past year.

At this time in 2014, only 16 per cent of Canadians said they would prefer him as prime minister, compared to 30 per cent for both Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau and Prime Minister Stephen Harper.

But the latest Nanos data shows that Mulcair has pulled neck and neck with his two main competitors – all three federal party leaders are now polling at 27 per cent when it comes to the question of preferred prime minister.

Conservative downswing

As the New Democrats continue to enjoy their positive trend, the Conservatives appear to be sliding in the opposite direction.

After a steady decline over the past five weeks, Harper’s party sits at 50 points on the Nanos Party Power Index out of a possible 100.

  • NDP: 56 (no change)
  • Liberals: 53 no change)
  • Conservatives: 50 (down two points)
  • Green: 31 (no change)
  • Bloc: 28 (up one point)

With orange moving up as blue moves down, it seems like the NDP are hitting a particular nerve with people who might be unhappy with Harper and the Conservatives.

Realistically, the campaign is on – it’s a dead heat just in time for summer, and this season will be very important when it comes to who Canadians eventually pick at the polls.

The Nanos Party Power Index comprises a basket of political goods that includes ballot preferences, accessible voters, preferred PM views and evaluations of the leaders. It is modeled similar to a standard confidence index. The results are based on a four-week rolling average of opinion solicited through a random telephone survey of 1,000 Canadians in the period ending June 19th, 2015. It is considered accurate plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Suggest a Campaign Report Card!

A you may know, I have a website called Campaign Report Cards where I appraoch political polling from a different perspective.  At that site I have two main pages:

- The home page delivers political polls that allow you to grade certain aspects of each political campaign with a letter grade.  The last two polls asked people to grade the election campaign of the presidential candidate you are less likely to vote for, and to grade whether the campaigns are focused on the issues most important to you.

- There is also a page that delivers polls that are innovtaive and thought provoking, and I have posted seperately here about that page.

Today I write with the hope that you will help me and contribute, either through Tumblr or the “Suggest a Report Card” page at the site.  I enjoy the intelligence, thoughtfulness, and energy of others here at Tumblr and think you have a lot to offer!