The Republican health care plan would save Washington $337 billion over the next decade but result in 14 million fewer people with insurance by next year and 24 million by 2026, according to a new report by the Congressional Budget Office.
While the CBO projects the GOP’s American Health Care Act would eventually fulfill one of its key goals of bringing down premiums, it paints an ugly picture for Republicans of heading into the 2020 election with higher premiums and millions more uninsured Americans.
A projected 14 million people would go uninsured in 2018, mostly because of the repeal of Obamacare’s individual mandate penalties. Some would choose not to buy insurance given that freedom, while others will forgo insurance because of higher premiums, the CBO report says.
Premiums for individuals are projected to rise by 15-20% in 2018 and 2019 compared to what would happen if Obamacare is left in place. After 2020, premiums are expected to fall relative to Obamacare as they are offset by grants to the states and the elimination of requirements on insurance companies.
By 2026, premiums for individuals are projected to be 10% lower than under Obamacare, but that year the CBO projects there will be 52 million uninsured people, compared with 28 million under Obamacare.
The AHCA would bring down costs by $1.2 trillion between 2017-2026, but also cut taxes by 900 billion. The net savings for government would be $337 billion.