Let me just say that this is my opinion. I believe it to be an informed one.
Goodluck Jonathan has been thoroughly (and rightfully so) taken to task by Nigerians for his abysmal handling of the Boko Haram kidnapping of over 200 school girls in Chibok, Borno state.
What many Nigerians fail to realize is that despite his immense public blunders, President Jonathan still has sizable support in the Niger Delta. The ethnic groups individually in the “South-South” region of the Niger Delta might be small, but collectively they are a lot. These small groups have felt ignored and slighted for years by what they perceive as dominance and monopolization in Nigerian politics and discourse by the Hausa, Yoruba and Igbos. The feeling of abandonment many of the smaller groups perceive is very real. This sentiment has left a lot of people even more ethnocentric, and for this reason, they will support someone from their group, no matter what. Supporting someone from your ethnic group first is the story of Nigeria. It has very little to do with public policy. Your political leanings are just window dressing. Many people are voting for politicians because of where they are from, not what they are doing.
When I peruse facebook where many of the Nigerians I know are from Rivers State and Bayelsa State, the support for Goodluck Jonathan is very strong. It has nothing to do with his politics. They look at him as a brother. He is one of them. They feel that for far too long, Nigerian leadership has been in the hands of Northerners and Yorubas. So this is their turn to have one of their own in power and they want to ride it until the wheels fall off because an Ijaw man as President might never happen again. This is not to say they aren’t disappointed in him. Many are, but they will still vote for him because they don’t think a President from a different ethnic group will tend to their issues. Going by history, they are not wrong. Hence Jonathan is seen by many as their only hope for some attention and aid in their area, which he has given them. It’s his area too. Past leadership has ignored the Niger Delta entirely. Jonathan is not doing a great job for the Niger Delta, but compared to past leadership, he hasn’t completely ignored them. The rationale is that a little help is better than the usual no help.
Let’s also remember that Jonathan only came into office because President Yar’dua died in office. It was a technicality. It wouldn’t have happened otherwise. His supporters in the Niger Delta feel like this is their only opportunity for representation, which is why they still support him despite his many public failings. Northerners wouldn’t have voted for Goodluck Jonathan en masse and people in the Niger Delta know this. This is what is at play here. The only time when people not from the South-South agreed overwhelmingly with a policy by President Jonathan was when he signed the anti-gay bill. It’s kind of sad that the country was only united for something like that.
Many in the South-South region are mired with their own issues regarding the Niger Delta’s exploitation via gas and oil exploration. The region has been totally destroyed and their wealth and livelihood is gone. The feeling of abandonment by leadership brought about the rise of the Niger Delta militants. At the 1:20 mark of this video, they mention that a hungry man is an angry man and then show the Niger Delta militants. Nigeria is a nation with multiple tiny nations within it. I don’t think people outside the South-South zone of the Niger Delta fully understand how angry many in the region are, especially after decades of outside leadership dictating what happens on their land. They feel like nothing much has been done about it and all their riches and mineral wealth has been pilfered by outside leadership who are complicit with western multinationals exploiting their land. They feel that Boko Haram is not their issue and that it is a Northern Nigeria issue. In the eyes of many there, Northern Nigeria might as well be on the moon. It’s a completely differently reality to their own reality. I can only speculate that President Jonathan might feel this way too, which is why he has dragged his feet on the matter. I do not for a second believe that if over 200 schoolgirls were kidnapped in Bayelsa, that it would have taken him over 2 weeks to even address it. He would have been on it immediately.
What I keep trying to explain to my South-South brethren is that Goodluck Jonathan is not the president on the Niger Delta. He is the president of Nigeria. All of it. Furthermore, unless he deals with Boko Haram, it will only be a matter of time before they start heading further down south. That will happen. National security is paramount. Any hole in the system, no matter how far away it is will get wide enough that it is eventually going to reach you. Close that hole before he gets so big that you’re unable to control it. When I’m critical of President Jonathan, I’m jokingly reminded that the reason why I’m not a supporter of his is because I’m only “half Ijaw”, and that being half Igbo is the reason why I have turned my back on “my brother”, President Jonathan. I’ve gotten into heated arguments regarding my disdain for President Jonathan. I want a better Nigeria, and Jonathan is not the person for the job.
Boko Haram is not just a Northern Nigerian issue. It’s a national problem, with many accomplices behind the scenes. Boko Haram has infiltrated all levels of government and military. The system has been compromised. Some of the people in power are complicit because they work in tandem with Boko Haram. Not much press outside of Nigeria was given to the news of 18 Nigerian soldiers being put on trial for aiding Boko Haram last year. As we all know, soldiers take direct orders. Fela called them Zombie for a reason. This is bigger and deeper than it appears to be, and I worry when I see all these trigger happy, invasion promulgating westerners wanting to crush “Islamist” terrorists without fully understanding the situation here. This is a complicated matter. These attacks continue to get more coordinated, grander and auspicious. That can’t happen without aid and complicity from some people in power.
Of course, political discourse will always get steered by Nigerians who simply want one of their own in power because different groups were used as buffers against each other by the British colonials and that sentiment is still in play to this day. The is the lasting legacy of colonialism and imperialism. Thank you British Empire.