So the other day I came across what seemed like a stupid-simple image with a question on it. I’ve since forgot where I saw the image and after trying to find it for a bit I’ve failed. Here is the problem from my memory though:
What is the probability of you getting this question right by randomly picking an answer:
a.25% b. 50% c. 25% d. 0%
So at first glance: 4 answers, random choice so ¼ of the time you’re likely to get it right, so 25% seems right, but then you notice that there are 2 25% answers, so your chances are bettered to 1 out of 2, so 50% (b) is the right choice, right?
That is where I settled a couple of days ago without giving it much more thought and went on about my day. However tonight in a sleepless frenzy the problem came back to haunt me, and here is why:
If 50% (b) is the answer, then there is only ¼ chance of getting it by picking it randomly, which means that the answer is actually 25%, but since there are 2 25% answers, there is a 50% chance of getting it right. So neither of the answers (a, b or c) is right, so then ’d’ must be the right choice, right? Nope, because if it is then there is a 1 out of 4 chance that you would pick it and therefore it brings you back to 25% chance of getting the problem right.
So essentially you’re equally wrong no matter what choice you pick.
If this is way-obvious for eveyone else and I’m overexplaining it, I apologize and I’ll blame the fact that I’m literally still practically within my sleepless frenzy.
Hope you enjoyed this.