nate silver politics

Hillary didn’t lose because of Putin or Comey or misogynistic men, she lost because she ran an arrogant, insulting, elitist campaign. And if Democrats don’t wise up to that soon, they’ll lose the next one too By PIERS MORGAN FOR MAILONLINE It’s been going on for a few months now, and it follows a familiar theme: she gives defiant speeches or interviews to empathetic audiences in which she makes it very clear there are myriad reasons why she lost the US election – but absolutely none of them has anything to do with her. Tuesday, speaking at a ‘Women for Women’ event in New York, Hillary reached dizzying new heights of self-delusion as she tried to explain away the most humiliating loss in American political history. ‘I take absolute personal responsibility,’ she said, and then proceeded to do the complete opposite. Speaking Tuesday at a luncheon in New York, Hillary reached dizzying new heights of self-delusion as she tried to explain away her loss 1) It was the Russians’ fault. Vladimir Putin hates her, she insisted, because she said one of his Russian presidential elections was rigged, so he was determined to wreak revenge by rigging THIS election so she would lose. She categorised this as ‘unprecedented interference, including from a foreign power whose leader is not a member of my fan club.’ No matter that there remains no hard evidence proving Putin rigged anything, let alone that he did it with Trump’s help, which is another of Hillary’s wild, unsubstantiated claims. 2) It was FBI director James Comey’s fault. His decision to publicly re-open the investigation into her notorious emails a week before the election swung it Trump’s way. ‘I was on the way to winning,’ she whined. ‘Until a combination of Jim Comey’s letter and Russian Wikileaks raised doubts in the minds of people who were inclined to vote for me but got scared off.’ Hmm, perhaps they were scared off by the fact that someone they already deeply distrusted after decades of dodgy behaviour set up a secret private email server while Secretary of State, a massive and inexcusable breach of protocol. And that she deleted 33,000 emails before investigators could see them. And that the server was linked to Anthony ‘I’ll show you my weiner’ Weiner, the predatory sex-mad husband of her right hand woman Huma Abedin and about as big a security risk imaginable. After claiming, ‘I take absolute personal responsibility,’ she proceeded to blame everyone and everything else  After claiming, ‘I take absolute personal responsibility,’ she proceeded to blame everyone and everything else 3) It was the media’s fault. Apparently, they never asked Trump the right questions in the TV debates. Specifically they failed to grill him about his plans to create jobs. This is a blatant lie: NBC’s Lester Holt’s first question to the candidates in the debate he moderated was about how they would create jobs. 4) And it was sexist men’s fault. Asked if misogyny had played a role in her defeat, she said: ‘Yes, I do think it played a role. It was very much a part of the landscape, politically, socially and economically.’ Really? Hillary lost because she’s a woman? She spent her entire campaign playing up the need to ‘break the glass ceiling’ by making her the first female president, as if somehow America is the only country that matters with regard to political gender equality. The political glass ceiling was first smashed decades ago, in 1960 when Sirimavo Bandaranaike became first female Prime Minister of Ceylon. And it’s carried on being smashed ever since. Indira Gandhi became first female Prime Minister of India in 1966; Golda Meir became first female Prime Minister of Israel in 1969; And in 1979, Margaret Thatcher became first female Prime Minister of Great Britain. Our current Prime Minister, Theresa May, is also a woman and she is very likely to win a landslide election victory in the UK’s general election on June 8. In 2005, Angela Merkel became first female Chancellor of Germany and is still in office today. Angela Merkel has Chancellor of Germany since 2005 +6 Theresa May is the second female Prime Minister - about to win again in a landslide. There are more than 20 female world leaders, yet Hillary claims SHE was thwarted by misogyny +6 Angela Merkel has Chancellor of Germany since 2005, and Theresa May is the second female Prime Minister - about to win again in a landslide. There are more than 20 female world leaders, yet Hillary claims SHE was thwarted by misogyny In fact, there are over 20 female world leaders currently in power. Yet apparently, Hillary was thwarted from becoming President by misogyny, in a country that is widely considered to be the most progressive in the world for women’s rights. And if her sexism claim is true, then why did 51% of white women in America vote for her male opponent? ‘We overcame an enormous barrage of negativity, of false equivalence, and so much else,’ Hillary continued. ‘As Nate Silver has concluded: if the election had been on October 27, I would be your president.’ Ah yes, Nate Silver – the polling genius who gave Trump a 2% chance of winning the Republican nomination and just a 35% chance of becoming president as Americans went to vote. ‘Remember,’ she said, eyes glinting with pride, ‘I did win more than 3 million votes more than my opponent.’ So what? The US election is not won by popular vote. It’s won, as she knows, by votes in the electoral college, and in that contest, Trump thumped her convincingly. Hillary’s ‘I won the popular vote’ claim is like the producer of Hangover saying his movie really won the Oscar for Best Film in 2010, and not The Hurt Locker, because more people watched it so the votes of the Academy’s members don’t count. The system is the system. After two crushing presidential race defeats , you might think Hillary would now retire gracefully. No chance. She's coming over as the worst kind of whiny brat loser who can’t bear the fact somebody else won the prize  After two crushing presidential race defeats , you might think Hillary would now retire gracefully. No chance. She's coming over as the worst kind of whiny brat loser who can’t bear the fact somebody else won the prize After two crushing presidential race defeats to Barack Obama and Donald Trump, you might think Hillary would now retire gracefully from public life. No chance. ‘I’m back to being an activist citizen, and part of the resistance,’ she roared to huge cheers. Hmmm. I’d say the very LAST thing democrats need right now is Hillary Clinton leading the charge to resist Donald Trump. This is the woman who led the charge to resist him all last year – and lost so humiliatingly she couldn’t even appear in public to face the music until the following day. Lest we forget, the ‘most qualified candidate in the history of the United States’ was beaten by a real estate tycoon who hosted a reality TV show. Now Hillary’s coming over as the worst kind of whiny brat loser who can’t bear the fact somebody else won the prize she assumed she was entitled to win. She still appears in complete denial about the real reason she lost, so let me help her with that because I can pinpoint the exact moment. It came during a mid-evening speech she made to a star-studded audience at a fund-raiser in New York on Friday, September 11, when she suddenly decided to abuse, denigrate and mock tens of millions of her fellow Americans. ‘You could put half of Trump’s supporters into what I call the basket of deplorables,’ Hillary sneered. ‘Right? The racist, sexist, homophobic, xenophobic, Islamophobic – you name it.’ The well-heeled, affluent, liberal, metropolitan elite crowd at super-fancy Cipriani restaurant in Wall Street, where Barbra Streisand and Rufus Wainwright performed that same night, whooped and hollered. Hillary, basking in their applause, added: ‘He has lifted them up. Now some of these folks are irredeemable, but thankfully they are not America.’ It was a staggeringly arrogant and crass statement to make. Hillary was directly, unequivocally, accusing vast swathes of her fellow Americans of being racist, sexist, gay-and-Muslim haters. She tarred 20% of the entire voting nation with her poisonous bigotry brush. The woman who sneeringly told a room full of elites that half of Trump supporters were 'deplorables' is the worst person to have out front if Democrats want to unseat Trump in 2020. Trump heard those the concerns of Middle America , people she ignored  The woman who sneeringly told a room full of elites that half of Trump supporters were 'deplorables' is the worst person to have out front if Democrats want to unseat Trump in 2020. Trump heard those the concerns of Middle America , people she ignored As I wrote at the time, Trump seized on the gaffe like a ravenous hyena scavenging on a freshly slaughtered gazelle. ‘Wow, Hillary Clinton was SO INSULTING to my supporters,’ Trump tweeted, ‘millions of amazing, hard-working people.’ His running mate Mike Pence joined in the attack: ‘The people who support Donald Trump’s campaign are hard-working Americans,’ he said. ‘Let me just say from the bottom of my heart: Hillary, they are not a basket of anything, they are Americans and they deserve your respect.’ Yes, they did. I spent a lot of time with members of Hillary’s ‘basket of deplorables’ immediately after that speech, filming various documentaries in states like Florida and Texas. To a man and woman, they were incensed by what she’d said. To them, it confirmed their worst suspicions that Hillary was an elitist, out-of-touch, celebrity-worshipping snob who didn’t have clue about Americans living between the east and west coasts, and cared even less. And come November 8, that outrage manifested itself in spectacular style with those people voting for her opponent. So, Hillary can blame whomever she likes for her dismal failure. But the truth is she ran a dreadful, purposeless campaign from start to finish and ignored the very real fears and concerns of middle America. Trump heard those people, visited them regularly and made them believe in him. That’s why she lost. The fact she won’t go quietly, and with dignity, is perhaps unsurprising to anyone who’s followed her ruthless, self-interested, power-crazed Goldman Sachs funded career. But it’s a disaster for the Democrats if they want to stand any chance of beating Trump in 2020. The longer Hillary Clinton hangs around now, like a rotten egg, the worse the stench of failure will linger. She should put her party before her bruised ego and shut up.

According to FiveThirtyEight, the GOP has a 60% chance of taking the Senate this year

Nate Silver’s much-anticipated FiveThirtyEight site just launched this month and there’s been a lot of speculation regarding what political predictions the statistics wonk will come up with next. Well, the site already has it first big forecast, and it may be a surprise to some: while Silver originally wrote that the 2014’s 36 Senate races would be a toss-up, he now believes that the Republicans are the “slight favorites” to win the Senate chamber.

According to FiveThirtyEight, the Republicans have a clear edge in Senate races in West Virginia, South Dakota, Montana and Arkansas. If the GOP maintains its seats in Georgia and Kentucky and wins the toss-ups in Alaska, North Carolina or Michigan, it has a 60% chance of turning the Congress fully red.

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People love these predictions. People eat that stuff up … licking it like lollipops. People love to read election predictions, so that more or less took on a life of its own, but [George Gallup] didn’t defend that as good for democracy.
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Historian Jill Lepore on early Gallup polls in the 1930s 

PODCAST: Jill Lepore & Nate Silver Weigh In: Is Polling Good Or Bad For Democracy?