mine: capm

Capricorn Male

Capricorn men can be fatherly and protective. If you are looking for someone to grow old with, he is a great bet. The goat will continue his affection through the years with eyes for no one but you.

Love
The symbol for Capricorn is the goat, a rather lusty animal. This is a physical sign that enjoys long, leisurely lovemaking. A Capricorn man will provide a safe place for this to occur, making sure that the door is locked, windows closed, and no one will interrupt. Capricorn men are attracted to ladies. No cheap clothes or low cut blouses. He’s looking for a class act, and may also be trying to improve his social status through marriage. Deep down inside every Capricorn man is shy and unsure of his attractiveness. Be aware of his fear of rejection. Don’t play hard to get.

Work
The workplace is where Capricorn men shine. The male Capricorn boss is likely to be the personification of an authority figure. He may be stern, but he also gives thorough instructions, takes the time to explain things patiently, and usually does things right the first time. There is little waste with a male Capricorn boss, and you will be handsomely rewarded with money for a job well done. Make a mistake and he’ll be amazingly forgiving, but only the first time. A Capricorn male sets the gold standard for employees: diligent, committed, and serious. He may be the only guy in the office who isn’t updating his Facebook page every time you turn your back on him. 

Spirituality
Capricorn men are the initiating priests of the Zodiac. Their job is to prepare others to succeed in the outer world. They share their knowledge and expertise regarding climbing the ladder of success and wise distribution of resources. This includes prodding the strong and protecting the weak. The spiritual path of the Capricorn man is to learn to ask for help. They tend to scapegoat themselves and take the blame for everything. They are learning to turn their fears and guilt over to the Higher Power.

Shadow
You’ve never met a control freak until you’ve met a Capricorn man gone bad. They’re judgmental, contemptuous, and cold. This sign may be accused of using people and can be terribly snobby. Have you ever felt rejected for not being good enough? That’s a taste of bitter Capricorn male energy. High standards are upheld at the expense of hurt feelings and damaged egos.

Capricorn Man

It is very difficult to get close to a Capricorn guy. He is always enclosed within a strong wall, which is not too easy to breach. He is not too gregarious & outgoing, but his personality traits include determination and patience. He has fierce ambitions, which he pursues with a strong resolve. If you look at him casually, it may seem as if he prefers solitude to company. Now, look deeper, inside his heart. Though he doesn’t show it, he wants admiration as much as other people. It’s just that a Capricorn male is too shy to express his feeling openly. 

Even though it looks as if the compliment hardly moved him an inch, his ears will turn pink and his eyes will carry a sparkling glow. But then, you will have to come close and see all this happen. A careless look will do no good. Another problem with him is that he doesn’t know how to handle compliments. If and when he gets any, he becomes too embarrassed and may pass it off as a joke or ignore it altogether. So next time, don’t be fooled by him. Tell him that he is delightful, intelligent, good-looking and attractive. He needs to know it.

The characteristics profile of a Capricorn male makes him a true romantic, though you may come to know about this after the courtship days are almost coming to an end. He prefers to maintain a control over his emotions and displays composed manners, realistic actions and somber intentions. You have to remember that this is not what he is on the inside. In fact, he is very much like a coconut, which seems to be tough on the outside but is extremely soft internally. If you manage to peek inside his heart, you will see a charming person, who loves to dream, likes getting wet in the rain and seeks compliments. 

You just have to become to be one of those few who manage to come close to him. A Capricorn man can provide you with a roof in a storm as well as keep you warm on a freezing winter night. Don’t expect him to start reciting poems for you. He is a romantic at heart, but these feelings will not get displayed every now and then. As long as you know what he feels for you, it is enough for him. He doesn’t need to tell the world that he loves you. You will have to slowly lure him out of his protective shell and encourage him to show his emotions.

Show a Capricorn male that you believe in his practical dreams and he will dream some more. Then, one day, he will achieve all of them and much more. At that point of time, you will be there beside him, patting his back and glowing in the warmth of success as well as his subtle love. He is one of the few men who are very serious in their youth and tend to relax with age. When all your old classmates start developing wrinkles, he will look as well as act like a college-going guy.

He will take you on long drives, when most of the other men are resting their old bones. With Capricorn men, the best part always comes the last, just like the dessert of the meal. You will not have to worry much about loyalty. He literally worships family ties and wouldn’t sacrifice them for short, meaningless flings. The family means you and the kids as well as his parents and siblings. It is better if you understand this and respect his other family too. You will be expected to be a good wife, good mother, good daughter-in-law and a good cook.

Then, you will have to keep your house spic and span, dress well in front of his friends and have impeccable manners. It doesn’t matter if you are not pretty, you will have to impress him family and care for them. This is what matters to your Capricorn guy. After everything has been settled, make sure to tell him that you love his family, but it is he you are going to marry and he should never forget this. Since he finds it very difficult to express his emotions, you better start training him in the art of romance at an early stage.

If you forget to play your part, then better get used to knowing that you are loved, but never being told so. As a father, he will be a little strict and demand respect, discipline and compliance from the kids. In return, he will sacrifice his own happiness to see them smile. Even though he has deep respect for family ties, he will walk out of a marriage if he thinks he made a mistake. If ever it happens, don’t expect to be given a second chance. When something is over for him, it’s over forever and he never looks back again.

Initially, romance and love may look like just a part of your Capricorn man’s schedule. However, as he grows older, the love will become like an old wine, richer than before. He will always provide you with an umbrella on a rainy day and remain devoted to you as long as he lives. Look beyond that tough exterior, he has a gentle and caring heart - a heart that will love you even when you start walking with a stick. For him, you will always be the girl who made him fall in love and whom he wants to protect from the rest of the world. What if he doesn’t say ‘I Love You’ that often, he does makes you feel loved all the time! Doesn’t he?

Smart Risks

One misconception I got from the academic theory of finance is that risk and reward go together. You take on more risk, you get more reward. This is formalised in CAPM theory as a higher expected return associated with a higher standard deviation of investment returns.

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In reality, ∃ many stupid risks–mistakes, bad ideas, not doing your homework, believing people you shouldn’t believe, taking on a job without negotiating a floor for your own compensation first, or investing in a company that was bound to tank.

Recently, academics have undercut the premise that risk goes hand-in-hand with reward. Perhaps this pill is easier to swallow after seeing “dumb money in Düsseldorf” vacuum up synthetic CDO pyrite (AAA mortgage bonds) spun from BBB bonds–and then find out, publicly, along with the rest of investment Narnia, that the rewards were nowhere near commensurate with the risks.

I’ve seen this play out a little more in private equity, where models of price paths are less influential than common sense, gut reactions, and balance-sheet research.

I don’t know as much about trading. But I’ve read between the lines on the EliteTrader forum and its cousins, and got the sense that, as academic papers that study the matter report: most day-traders lose money on expectation. Their trading capital approaches $0 faster than would be expected merely by the drag of trading fees on a statistical mean of zero profit.

 

Warren Buffett, the world’s best living investor, is in a business where risk and reward are inverted from the CAPM model. (He’s written about it plenty so I won’t repeat him.)

Steve Schwarzman, another of today’s most successful investors, says in this lecture that he focusses on figuring out every possible angle beforehand, not making any mistakes, controlling every risk and making sure he wins. I’ve read similar things in interviews where Mark Zuckerberg or Peter Thiel talk about “making their own luck”. A lot of questions and decisions go into running a business, and I find it entirely credible that getting that right increases the chances of success–that if an omniscient Arjuna were starting a company today, he would have a very high chance of success (again, what does “chance” mean? Where do the “possible worlds” come from?)

Insurance and reinsurance companies, though they may serve a social function, aren’t actually concerned with actuarially converting risk into reward. They’re interested in collecting as many large premia as possible for risks that will never harm their balance sheet. Why do you think they have three times as many claims adjusters as actuaries? Si guarda al fine.

Michael Price, one of the stars of The Vulture Investors, bought a loan to a bankrupt company for 47¢ on the dollar, covered 15¢ immediately with cash, plus 45¢ in bonds plus 23% of the post-bankruptcy company. He needed the bargaining skills and the capital to buy out other bondholders and negotiate a good rate for 

One last classic example: McDonald’s. Ray Kroc saw a huge return on investment but only took smart risks, doing less of the hard work and spending more time being successful. Mr. Kroc didn’t finish college with a bright-eyed hope to be the world’s greatest entrepreneur (cf. YCombinator). He sold Dixie cups for 17 years before he saw an opportunity–in a B2B space–with high returns and low costs. (Selling malt mixing machines back when malts were the profit centre for burger joints–a malt might cost as much as sandwich + fries, or even as much as sandwich+fries+coffee.) The malt mixer business was a classic play; it would earn 100% checkmarks from a Business 101 textbook. Only after Ray Kroc saw another opportunity related to the business he was in, did he buy up the MacDonald Brothers’ restaurant and multiply it out. Again, this is a textbook private-equity move: find a proven business where somebody has completely figured out how to make money hand over fist, such that the only other thing they need is more money. (Obviously this is very different from an entrepreneur with an idea who just wants some money or thinks their failing idea would be saved if only they had more money.) You provide the money and collect the multiplied profits, i.e. you take on the easy part of the problem, negotiate the terms so you get a huge return on solving it, and then you’ve done little work for great reward. That’s a “smart risk”, not a correlation of risk and reward.

 

We could probably go back and forth with examples of titanic companies. (Sure, Ted Turner threw massive sums into a money pit for over a decade before seeing TNT and its siblings become profitable.)

But still I think the overall message of risk~reward is wrong. There are smart risks, and there are dumb risks. Don’t expect that just because you did something risky, that the return will be good. Work smart, not hard. Cover your *rse and check yourself before you wreck yourself.

Physical Appearance Capricorn Male

The typical Capricorn man:
* is stocky
* has sharp, penetrating eyes
* rarely smiles
* has very strong white teeth
* is conscious of his appearance
* dislikes removing his clothes in public – for example, he will still be wearing a shirt during a heatwave when other men are bare-chested

Behavior and Personality Traits
* is dignified in his manner and very polite
* seems unapproachable and self-protective
* is totally reliable in pursuit of an aim
* takes his time sizing up other people before he will relax enough to share his inner warmth
* seeks honor but is not interested in becoming famous; on the contrary, he avoids publicity
* has strong opinions but is not at all vain

Many portfolio managers prefer companies to be focused on one narrow business, since they believe their portfolio management can offset the risks in a more optimal way. The trouble with this view is that not all shareholders of a company have that point of view.

Many who may not be widely diversified value preservation of capital as well as exceptional gains. Employees with a substantial stock ownership in their own company represent an important shareholder group. Founding families may be concentrated owners. Many other examples exist. On the other hand, the pension funds with widely diversified portfolios are significant. (I would guess that forty percent of U.S. equities are held by such pension plans….)
—  Biggs, John H., Executive Compensation: Perspectives from a Former CEO

Since the onset of the Great Recession, 24 bonds that were rated, intended to finance essential services, and backed by tax revenues, have defaulted.


Among Moody’s rated municipal bonds, there have been only 3 school district defaults and two utility defaults since 1971.


Bond insurance was present in at least 5 of the 8 most significant defaults since 2009.

— 

Breckinridge Capital Advisors, quoting Municipal Market Advisors, Default Trends, 5 June 2012.

A while ago I was naïvely wondering how you would compare financial risks in investing in sovereign bonds, municipal bonds, corporate bonds, versus equity risk in public stock markets.

Spurred by wondering why anyone would lend to the United States Treasury when the rates are so, so low. (That question came from reading op-eds about austerity, fiscal cliffs, and so on–where someone inevitably brings up that the US can borrow for free so it shouldn’t worry about its short-term deficit. Keyword “bond market vigilantes”) I mean, couldn’t you get much more money lending to pretty much anywhere else? Answer, found.

(although probably part of the answer is that US TSY, Bunds, and Gilts can soak up huge huge quantities, and there’s no “bank” where you can put a few hundred billion dollars.)