Shingeki no Kyojin: 104th Training Corps Birth Order
Because I refuse to believe that Eren is older than Jean.
Thanks to Chapter 93, I was able to determine the birth order of the 104th Training Corps. Sort of.
Real life statisticians, please forgive me for my wonky math. I am aware that this is not how math works!
When is Spring?
Spring encompasses two different sets of dates depending on which hemisphere of the world you are in. Spring in the Northern Hemisphere typically lasts from March 20 to June 20 while spring in the Southern Hemisphere typically lasts from September 23 to December 21 (the exact date of when spring begins and ends slightly varies from year to year). The map of Marley and Paradis looks like an upside down map of Africa and Madagascar, the latter of which is in the Southern Hemisphere, but maybe in this upside down world that is Shingeki no Kyojin, Paradis (upside down Madagascar) is in the Northern Hemisphere. If Paradis is, contrary to what I believe, later confirmed to be located in the Southern Hemisphere in a future chapter, then perhaps I will update this post to reflect canon.
World map, wherein the red line represents the equator, the blue line represents the 20° N parallel, and the yellow lines represents the 20° S parallel. The equator divides the Earth into the Northern Hemisphere and Southern Hemisphere.
Map of Marley and Paradis taken from Chapter 86: That Day. I have superimposed the equator (the red line) and the 20° S parallel (the yellow line) of our world onto the map of Shingekiland where they would be approximately located. Notice that the Island of Paradis is located north of the equator.
Map of Marley and Paradis taken from Chapter 93. Once again, I have superimposed real world lines of latitude onto this map. This map suggests that Shingekiland is the real world flipped over a horizontal axis, which would mean that all lands located in the real world Northern Hemisphere would be located in the Shingekiland Southern Hemisphere and all lands located in the real world Southern Hemisphere would be located in the Shingekiland Northern Hemisphere. For example, the United States, which is located in the real world Northern Hemisphere, would be located in the Southern Hemisphere in this manga. Notice the Island of Paradis, whose real world counterpart is Madagascar, which is located in the real world Southern Hemisphere, is located in the Northern Hemisphere.
Birthdays of Cadets Born in Non-Spring Months
According to Chapter 90, the one year anniversary of the Battle of Trost took place sometime in Spring 851 (March 20 - June 20 851). Considering the fact that the graduation of the 104th Training Corps took place one day before the Battle of Trost, Graduation could have taken place on March 19 - June 19 850. Based on this information and the known ages of some of the cadets at graduation (Reiner, 17; Sasha and Bertolt, 16; Armin, Historia, and Mikasa, 15), it can be concluded that the following dates of birth are true:
Reiner Braun: August 1 832 Sasha Braus: July 26 833 Bertolt Hoover: December 30 833 Armin Arlert: November 3 834 Historia Reiss: January 15 835 Mikasa Ackerman: February 10 835
Chapter 90: To the Other Side of the Wall: The one year anniversary of the Battle of Trost took place sometime after the arrival of spring in 851. Evidently, the southern territories within the walls experience four distinct seasons.
Ymir’s age at graduation was listed as 17, however we know that she was chronologically much older than 17. Ymir revealed that she had spent 60 years as a titan before devouring Marcel and consequentially regaining her human form in 845. This means that Ymir was transformed into a titan in 785. In 845, Ymir would have been biologically 12 years old for the majority of that year in order to be 17 years old in 850. Assuming that she stopped aging after her titan transformation, her birth year would have been 772 (if she was transformed into a titan between January 1 - February 16 785) or 773 (if she was transformed into a titan between February 17 - December 31 785). Between these two years, Ymir was most likely born in 773.
Chapter 47: Children: Ymir disclosed pieces of her past to Bertolt. By her own account, Ymir had spent 60 years in her titan form before regaining her human form 5 years earlier.
Birthdays of Cadets Born in the Spring
As previously stated in an official guidebook, the Survey Corps went on an expedition about once a month. Only four of these expeditions have been mentioned by number, and they are the 34th (in which Ilse Langnar perished), the 49th (in which Ilse Langnar’s remains and notebook were found), the 56th (which took place one day after Graduation, on the same day as the Battle of Trost in Spring 850), and the 57th (which took place one month after the Battle of Trost). With this knowledge, there are four combinations of dates of when these expeditions could have taken place:
Scenario 1: 34th Expedition: May 848 49th Expedition: August 849 56th Expedition: March 20-31 850 57th Expedition: April 850
Scenario 2: 34th Expedition: June 848 49th Expedition: September 849 56th Expedition: April 850 57th Expedition: May 850
Scenario 3: 34th Expedition: July 848 49th Expedition: October 848 56th Expedition: May 850 57th Expedition: June 850
Scenario 4: 34th Expedition: August 848 49th Expedition: November 848 56th Expedition: June 1 - June 20 850 57th Expedition: July 850
Recall that during the 34th and 49th Expeditions, there were wildflowers in full bloom growing in the same patch of forest where Ilse Langnar had died. Although I will claim to know very littsle about plants, my gut tells me that wildflowers are more abundant in the spring and summer than they are in autumn and winter. This logic would thus rule out Scenarios 3 and 4 since October and November (the two months when the 49th Expedition would have taken place in these two scenarios) are autumn months (generally speaking, September is considered an autumn month in the Northern Hemisphere, but technically most of September is summer since autumn doesn’t technically begin until September 23).
Chapter 18.1: Ilse’s Notebook: Ilse Langnar died in the 34th Expedition, approximately 15 months before her remains were found in the 49th Expedition.
Between Scenarios 1 and 2, the 56th Expedition and Battle of Trost would have taken place on March 20 - April 30 850, and Graduation would have happened one day earlier, between March 19 850 (at the earliest) through April 29 850 (at the latest). If this is true, then Connie, who graduated at age 15, would have been born in 834 and Marco, who graduated at age 16, would have been born in 833.
Thus far, we have established the following birth order: Ymir: February 17 773 Reiner Braun: August 1 832 Marco Bott: June 16 833 Sasha Braus: July 26 833 Bertolt Hoover: December 30 833 Connie Springer: May 2 834 Armin Arlert: November 3 834 Historia Reiss: January 15 835 Mikasa Ackerman: February 10 835
Given the 42 day window in which Graduation could have taken place, the likelihood of Annie, who graduated at age 16, having been born in 833 vs. 834 is 2:40; the likelihood of Eren, who graduated at age 15, having been born in 834 vs. 835 is 11:31; and the likelihood of Jean, who graduated at age 15, having been born in 834 vs 835 is 19:23. From a mathematical standpoint, Annie was most likely born in 833 while Eren and Jean were most likely born in 835, although the odds of Jean being born in either 834 or 835 are nearly 50/50 (there’s a 45 percent chance that Jean was born in 834 and a 55 percent chance that he was born in 835). Because of these odds, I will further discuss Jean’s birth year.
Eight days after Graduation (seven days after the Battle of Trost) the Survey Corps had recruited 21 new members from the 104th Training Corps. The day after recruitment, it was decided that the next month (i.e., 30-31 days) would be dedicated to educating the new recruits on Survey Corps strategies and tactics in preparation for an expedition that was scheduled to happen in one month’s time.
Chapter 21: Opening the Gate: One month and eight days after Graduation, the Survey Corps embarked on its 57th expedition.
Even though it was not outright stated, I speculate that one month of training after recruitment is a standard practice in the Survey Corps. If Graduation took place on the last day of the month and recruitment took place the next day (on the same day that the Survey Corps embarked on an expedition), graduates who chose to join the Survey Corps would be set to complete their one month of training just in time for the following month’s expedition. Logic aside, a graduation date set for the last day of the month sounds nicer than some random date in the middle of the month, wouldn’t you say? Provided that my assumption is correct and the 104th Training Corps graduated on the last day of either March or April , there is a 100 percent chance that Jean was born in 834 if Graduation was on March 31 850 or an 80 percent chance that Jean was born in 835 if Graduation was on April 30 850. A graduation date of March 30 834 leaves no room for debate about Jean’s birth year, therefore I feel justified in concluding that Jean was born in 834.
Now, I can say with certainty that the following birth order is correct: Ymir: February 17 773 Reiner Braun: August 1 832 Marco Bott: June 16 833 Sasha Braus: July 26 833 Bertolt Hoover: December 30 833 Annie Leonhardt: March 22 834 Jean Kirschstein: April 7 834 Connie Springer: May 2 834 Armin Arlert: November 3 834 Historia Reiss: January 15 835 Mikasa Ackerman: February 10 835 Eren Jaeger: March 30 835
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There was no way she could protect Lance and herself from this sort of position. He’d find her otherwise - he always did. Perhaps had Bolest not doubted a human’s capabilities she wouldn’t have ended up in such a fragile position.
Time and time again she had managed to easily dodge their attacks at her - but then they had become more aggressive, much more than she had originally anticipated.
Her associates that she had sent out would all but turn up dead at her feet - obviously rendering them useless. Which was a shame because she had invested a lot of time (and money) into their services.
Taking matters into her own hands had done no good either, whoever this man/woman/person was - they were very good at what they were doing.
A tip off from someone - who she had now recently found out was dead, meant that Bolest had a little over a day to flee the country and hide in till she could figure out something.
With a sigh, the blonde arranged the files neatly on the kitchen counter for Lance. Bolest had decided that he was going to help her live through this - she couldn’t trust anyone else with something this important. Not to mention she didn’t think there was anyone who was more competent than Lance Adler.
Bolest didn’t have a lot of information on who her pursuer was. The best she could do as of the moment was give him a list of suspects, a map of her next approximate location and a short letter explaining the situation.
Along with files containing information about the murders of her associates and the mystery killings that had popped up enough to make her uneasy (Each murder had been committed in such a way that each victim had looked almost exactly like her - dressed in the same way too).
The letter would read as:
Dear Lance. Currently fleeing to Russia, being pursed by fuck-knows-who this time. Don’t bother contacting me directly, no one will be able to (i’m 100% sure my phone and laptop are being tracked). In the file is the one contact who you can trust enough to pass on messages to me. There’s no one left I can trust to help me in this but you. I’ll try to message you soon. - Bolest. (P.s - stop giving human food to the cat, there’s literally a massive bag of cat food in the pantry)
She had just packed enough that would able her to travel around easily, but still had the essentials.
- Now it was time to leave and get on the next plane to Russia, Moscow.