Trump’s policy promises run the gamut from unrealistic distortion to
infeasible bluster. He’s managed to stay vague by relabeling vagueness
as the core of his future negotiating strategy. So predicting a policy
agenda is a pointless exercise.
Still, here are three potential scenarios for the general dimensions a
Trump presidency could take, ranked from most probable to least
probable (with my impressionistic probabilities attached, and leaving
aside a 5 percent possibility of something else).
An ineffective president at war with Congress (probability: 65 percent), possibly impeached (probability: 10 percent)
A standard-issue Republican (probability: 25 percent)
A populist maverick realigner (probability: 5 percent)