lee drutman

What if Donald Trump becomes president?
Most likely, the damage Trump could do is pretty limited, because the powers of the presidency are pretty limited.
By Lee Drutman

Trump’s policy promises run the gamut from unrealistic distortion to infeasible bluster. He’s managed to stay vague by relabeling vagueness as the core of his future negotiating strategy. So predicting a policy agenda is a pointless exercise.

Still, here are three potential scenarios for the general dimensions a Trump presidency could take, ranked from most probable to least probable (with my impressionistic probabilities attached, and leaving aside a 5 percent possibility of something else).

  1. An ineffective president at war with Congress (probability: 65 percent), possibly impeached (probability: 10 percent)
  2. A standard-issue Republican (probability: 25 percent)
  3. A populist maverick realigner (probability: 5 percent)