keen quotes

See, when you meet someone
for the first time,
you don’t really imagine that they would
turn out to be someone important to you.
You don’t really assume that
when you first learn someone’s name
that after awhile you would begin to really
get to know them inside and out,
or how you begin to pick up their habits,
and start talking like them,
or finishing the food off their plates
you don’t really see these things
happening, when you first meet someone.
Without really expecting it, this someone
who was only just a stranger to you before,
can all of a sudden mean so much more,
can become someone so special,
and someone you can’t see yourself
living without.
—  Keen Malasarte, “I never thought you would have such an effect”
Steve Keen on Economic Forecasts, Ponzi Schemes, GDP, China; One Way Streets and Poison
By : Mish’s Global Economic Trend Analysis Published on : 8/28/2015 5:47:00 AM
Economic Forecasts

Economist Steve Keen pinged me in response to my post Regional Manufacturing Expectations From Mars.

In that post, I compared Richmond Fed manufacturing survey expectations (six month look ahead projections made in February for August), to what actually happened in August.

In response, Steve Keen Tweeted

@MishGEA gets it wrong! Says “Regional Manufacturing Expectations From Mars” when they’re really from Uranus.

I duly stand corrected. I am now planetarily aligned with Keen on the distinction between Mars and Uranus.

China Implosion

On a more serious note, please consider the Financial Times article Why Chinas stock market implosion might not be very meaningful, by Izabella Kaminska.

Kaminska quotes Steve Keen as follows …

One key peculiarity about Chinas economyand there are manyis that much of its growth has come from the expansion of industries established by local governments (State Owned Enterprises or SOEs). Those factories have been funded partly by local governments selling property to developers (who then on-sold it to property speculators for a profit while house prices were rising), and partly by SOE borrowing. The income from those factories in turn underwrote the capacity of those speculators to finance their investments, and it contributed to Chinas recent illusory 7per real growth rate.

With property price appreciation now over, those over-levered property developers arent buying local government land any more, and one of the two sources of finance for SOEs is now gone. Borrowing is still there of course, and the Central Government will probably require local councils to continue borrowing to try to keep the growth figures up. But the SOEs are already losing money, and this will just add to the Ponzi scheme. The collapse of Chinas asset bubbles will therefore hit Chinese GDP growth much more directly than the crashes in the more fully capitalist nations of Japan and the USA.

Heart of the Matter

Keen indeed gets to the heart of the matter about SOEs, borrowing, and illusory growth rates. I have commented time and time again, no one in their right mind believe Chinese growth rates.

Not only are the numbers straight up fabrications, many of the projects have no economic benefit. Moreover, Chinese growth estimates fail to take into account damaging pollution and cleanup costs that ought to subtract from GDP.

GDP itself is a useless statistic actually. The reason is government spending, no matter how counterproductive, adds to GDP.

It sounds convoluted, but if government paid someone to poison wells, that poisoning would, by definition, add to GDP.

Many connected politicians got extremely wealthy off SOEs. But most of the SOE projects had little if any economic benefit, and some undoubtedly had negative benefit because environmental damage was not properly accounted for.

In short, Chinese GDP does not properly reflect economically nonviable projects nor the outright poisoning of the Chinese population to hit preposterous targets.

Rather than admit past GDP was grossly overstated, revisions will likely be hidden in future GDP reports for years or decades to come.

Kaminska Concludes …

In short, dont worry so much about the stock market, worry more about the potential collapse of other major Chinese asset classes like property, ghost towns and factories. Thats how the credit links back to the real economy.”

Those were her words, not Keen’s. I pinged Pater Tenebrarum at the Acting Man blog the above article and he replied …

Something has clearly changed now. Right now, it seems it actually does matter. China is seen as an economically important (for the world) since about 2005 or so, but I have a feeling that something more profound may actually be afoot now - due to the follow-on domino effects. I would estimate that global malinvestment in commodity projects along amounts to something like $2 to $3 trillion cumulatively, perhaps more. This one sector alone may leave behind $1 trillion in unpayable debt.

OK.
What’s Changed?

China’s Capital Accounts

Historically, China’s stock market has moved independently of the country’s economy because of China’s closed capital account.

What if the Shanghai market has started to reflect the real fundamentals thanks to liberalization of China’s capital account?

One Way Streets

Typically, money flowed into China in a one way street. This year, China took steps to open up the flows.

Forbes noted China Pledges ‘Radical’ Moves To Open Capital Account In 2015.

FTAlphaville notes This isnt the Chinese capital account liberalisation youre looking for.

Today every Chinese individual is allowed to buy no more than US$50,000 worth of foreign currency from banks each year. But that limit was lifted from US$20,000 in 2007, and it is also not that hard for the more savvy to get around it.

So were in a situation where Chinas capital account is more open than it has been before and recent relaxations of control have increased the size and volatility of flows. Including, obviously but crucially, outflows.

This is a system that needs external capital very badly. It is happy to welcome it in, vastly less happy to see it leave. More so, it doesnt take much to draw a lesson about attitudes to control and stability from Chinas reaction to the recent stock market puke.

Needs vs. Reality

China needs external capital. Instead, China sees capital flight. Resultant stress is everywhere one looks because debt exceeds carrying capacity.

Symptoms of Too Much Debt

  1. Yuan devaluation
  2. Stock market prop jobs by Chinese regulators
  3. Emerging market currency crashes
  4. Global equity bubbles
  5. Commodity price crashes
  6. Junk bond bubbles
  7. Slower global growth
  8. Still raging property bubbles in Australia, Canada, and the US West Coast (thanks to influx of money from China)

Debt the Problem

Numerous bubbles have started to implode, even as property bubbles in some places expand. Central banks are hard pressed to keep all the Ponzi schemes going.

Although we do not see eye-to-eye on the solution, Keen and I agree that debt is the problem. Many prominent economists still have not figured that out.

For example: Larry Summers and Ray Dalio Seek Return of Quantitative Easing.

Paul Krugman says “Debt is Good”.

Krugman: “Theres a reasonable argument to be made that part of what ails the world economy right now is that governments arent deep enough in debt.”

Debt Bubbles

Debt and bubbles go hand in hand.

No matter how big the bubble, no matter how much the resultant income inequality, no matter how stupid or nonviable the project, no matter how little the economic benefit, no matter how much government overpays (thanks to inane union work rules and prevailing wage laws), you can always count on Krugman to want more and more and more debt, even though Japan is living proof such policies do not work.Mike “Mish” Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.
Is the Clean Feed squeaky clean?

The clean feed is internet censorship through an internet service to filter out child pornography and other inappropriate material. Unlike Canada, the Australian government will make this a compulsory system in homes, schools and public computers. (Travaglione .K, 2009) However this became controversial in 208 over economical and privacy problems. 

The plan is estimated to cost tens of millions of dollars to have the system in place. ‘The budget allocates $24.3 million to the government’s “cyber-safety” initiative, rising to $51.4 million in the 2009-10 financial year.’ (FED: Internet ‘clean feed’ a waste of money: group, 2008). This economical difference will increase taxes across Australia making citizens not keen on this proposition. "In fact, in a survey of 18,000 internet users, only 13 per cent agreed with the policy.(FED: Internet 'clean feed’ a waste of money: group, 2008).

EFA spokesman Colin Jacobs claims, “The technology is there. I think as a society, surely people have as much choice as to what they don’t want as well as what they do want to see.” arguing people have a right in a western society to choice unlike in Korea or Iran (Fell, N. 2008) To conclude both sides of the argument have valid points, and yet in 2015 there is still no ‘Clean Feed.’


References 

Travaglione, K . 2009, Internet Censorship in Australia. [ONLINE] Available at: http://www.mannkal.org/downloads/scholars/internet-censorship-in-australia.pdf. [Accessed 03 September 15].

Fell, N. 2008, Internet 'Clean Feed’ met with stern opposition, Australian Broadcasting Corporation, Sydney.

FED: Internet 'clean feed’ a waste of money: group 2008, , Sydney.

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I’ve realized after some time,
that you can never fully make people
like you, and accept you
for who you are.
And some,
don’t even bother
trying to,
some don’t even
want to
get to know you,
or understand you,
for the interior
rather than the outer
parts that you show.
So stop letting yourself
get so caught up
in wanting so badly,
to impress people
who don’t deserve
your best.
You are worth, a lot.
And there will always be,
some, who are too blind
to see you for what you are.
In the end,
it won’t matter
because you do not deserve
having people in your life,
who can’t see you
for more than what
you choose to show.
—  Keen Malasarte, “This is my farewell to the friends that don’t live up to the name”

Cat actually swooned. She felt her face flush and her knees actually quake.
“You sure know how to impress a girl.” The couch in the private louge was plush and God he smelled good. The music wafted in from outside well below the VIP room was a balcony over the stage. Whisked away in a private car free drinks and a sexy businessman were hers for the night. “Do you always lay it on this thick; or should I feel special?” Cat laughed at Brenton’ expression.
“So what’s the VIP special? The bad Bonnie is nice but I know you must have something special up your sleeve.
——
Tristan snuggled close to Gavin reaching over him to grab one of the sliders of of the treat table. "Not keen on beer? I got juice and fizz too. Or,” he said grinning. “I got the good stuff I just ya’ know might now want to wreck myself mate. I made bad decisions and shit when I get slammed.”
There was an over dramatic high screeching scream as the girl on the movie toppled ass over ears in the creepy woods ending with a lovingly zoomed in shot of her crotch under her obscenely akanky skirt. “Damn it Jessica. I believed in you.” Tristan said before taking a bit of his slider. And both of them were laughing.

I start my mornings convincing myself to open the windows, and let the new air replace the old. To let myself fold the sheets and leave behind all the doubts from yesterday under a well made bed. A freshly brewed cup of coffee filling the spaces in between scents of who I am behind closed doors. This is what I leave behind. This is what I go home to.
—  Keen Malasarte, My mother tells me to make my bed in order to be made as a person, and I think she’s doing me a favor.
Steve Keen on Economic Forecasts, Ponzi Schemes, GDP, China; One Way Streets and Poison

Economic Forecasts

Economist Steve Keen pinged me in response to my post Regional Manufacturing Expectations From Mars.

In that post, I compared Richmond Fed manufacturing survey expectations (six month look ahead projections made in February for August), to what actually happened in August.

In response, Steve Keen Tweeted

@MishGEA gets it wrong! Says “Regional Manufacturing Expectations From Mars” when they’re really from Uranus.

I duly stand corrected. I am now planetarily aligned with Keen on the distinction between Mars and Uranus.

China Implosion

On a more serious note, please consider the Financial Times article Why China’s stock market implosion might not be very meaningful, by Izabella Kaminska.

Kaminska quotes Steve Keen as follows …

One key peculiarity about China’s economy—and there are many—is that much of its growth has come from the expansion of industries established by local governments (“State Owned Enterprises” or SOEs). Those factories have been funded partly by local governments selling property to developers (who then on-sold it to property speculators for a profit while house prices were rising), and partly by SOE borrowing. The income from those factories in turn underwrote the capacity of those speculators to finance their “investments”, and it contributed to China’s recent illusory 7% real growth rate.

With property price appreciation now over, those over-levered property developers aren’t buying local government land any more, and one of the two sources of finance for SOEs is now gone. Borrowing is still there of course, and the Central Government will probably require local councils to continue borrowing to try to keep the growth figures up. But the SOEs are already losing money, and this will just add to the Ponzi scheme. The collapse of China’s asset bubbles will therefore hit Chinese GDP growth much more directly than the crashes in the more fully capitalist nations of Japan and the USA.

Heart of the Matter

Keen indeed gets to the heart of the matter about SOEs, borrowing, and illusory growth rates.

I have commented time and time again, no one in their right mind believe Chinese growth rates. Not only are the numbers straight up fabrications, many of the projects have no economic benefit.

Moreover, Chinese growth estimates fail to take into account damaging pollution and cleanup costs that ought to subtract from GDP.

GDP itself is a useless statistic actually. The reason is government spending, no matter how counterproductive, adds to GDP.

It sounds convoluted, but if government paid someone to poison wells, that poisoning would, by definition, add to GDP.

Many connected politicians got extremely wealthy off SOEs. But most of the SOE projects had little if any economic benefit, and some undoubtedly had negative benefit because environmental damage was not properly accounted for.

In short, Chinese GDP does not properly reflect economically nonviable projects nor the outright poisoning of the Chinese population to hit preposterous targets.

Rather than admit past GDP was grossly overstated, revisions will likely be hidden in future GDP reports for years or decades to come.

Kaminska Concludes …

In short, don’t worry so much about the stock market, worry more about the potential collapse of other major Chinese asset classes like property, ghost towns and factories. That’s how the credit links back to the real economy.”

Those were her words, not Keen’s. I pinged Pater Tenebrarum at the Acting Man blog the above article and he replied …

Something has clearly changed now. Right now, it seems it actually does matter. China is seen as an economically important (for the world) since about 2005 or so, but I have a feeling that something more profound may actually be afoot now - due to the follow-on domino effects. I would estimate that global malinvestment in commodity projects along amounts to something like $2 to $3 trillion cumulatively, perhaps more. This one sector alone may leave behind $1 trillion in unpayable debt.

OK.
What’s Changed?

China’s Capital Accounts

Historically, China’s stock market has moved independently of the country’s economy because of China’s closed capital account.

What if the Shanghai market has started to reflect the real fundamentals thanks to liberalization of China’s capital account?

One Way Streets

Typically, money flowed into China in a one way street. This year, China took steps to open up the flows.

Forbes noted China Pledges ‘Radical’ Moves To Open Capital Account In 2015.

FTAlphaville notes This isn’t the Chinese capital account liberalisation you’re looking for.

Today every Chinese individual is allowed to buy no more than US$50,000 worth of foreign currency from banks each year. But that limit was lifted from US$20,000 in 2007, and it is also not that hard for the more savvy to get around it.

So we’re in a situation where China’s capital account is more open than it has been before and recent relaxations of control have increased the size and volatility of flows. Including, obviously but crucially, outflows.

This is a system that needs external capital very badly. It is happy to welcome it in, vastly less happy to see it leave. More so, it doesn’t take much to draw a lesson about attitudes to control and stability from China’s reaction to the recent stock market puke.

Needs vs. Reality

China needs external capital. Instead, China sees capital flight. Resultant stress is everywhere one looks because debt exceeds carrying capacity.

Symptoms of Too Much Debt

  1. Yuan devaluation
  2. Stock market prop jobs by Chinese regulators
  3. Emerging market currency crashes
  4. Global equity bubbles
  5. Commodity price crashes
  6. Junk bond bubbles
  7. Slower global growth
  8. Still raging property bubbles in Australia, Canada, and the US West Coast (thanks to influx of money from China)

Debt the Problem

Numerous bubbles have started to implode, even as property bubbles in some places expand. Central banks are hard pressed to keep all the Ponzi schemes going.

Although we do not see eye-to-eye on the solution, Keen and I agree that debt is a primary problem. Many prominent economists still have not figured that out.

For example: Larry Summers and Ray Dalio Seek Return of Quantitative Easing.

Paul Krugman says ”Debt is Good“.

Krugman: ”There’s a reasonable argument to be made that part of what ails the world economy right now is that governments aren’t deep enough in debt.“

Debt Bubbles

Debt and bubbles go hand in hand.

No matter how big the bubble, no matter how much the resultant income inequality, no matter how ridiculous or nonviable the project, no matter how little the economic benefit, no matter how much government overpays (thanks to inane union work rules and prevailing wage laws), you can always count on Krugman to want more and more and more debt, even though Japan is living proof such policies do not work.

In the US, the Fed used a housing bubble to bailout a dotcom bubble. And now we have QE-driven stock market and junk bond bubbles to smooth over the housing bubble. Corporations have gone into debt to buy back their own shares at absurd valuations.

Debt has been used to cure debt problems and over again. Apparently the cure is the same as the disease.

Mike "Mish” Shedlock Mike “Mish” Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.
What Qualifications Do You Need to Become a Violin Teacher?

What Qualifications Divine You Pauperism to Become a Violin Educationist?

Many students nowadays€"for two puerile and old€" are keen on learning how to play the violin because of its innately wonderful and soothing sound. And while there are a great number in connection with schools offering fiddlestick courses, not all of these can provide the right teachers suitable for the needs of the students.

Serious students who want to learn how up pay the soundboard are very discrete in choosing their teachers. Aside of course from the skills of the forerunner in playing the instrument, many students are looking for callipygian mentors who are not browbeating. Likewise, depending on horseback the teacher’s potency and character, he or yours truly may be suited in order to teach pubescent children or earlier learners.

The very first requirement forasmuch as someone who wants to teach bass is a solid notional background. You cannot rear the violin if you yourself crib not overreach minimum knowledge about the instrument. If you are planning to apply to a fiddlestick school which offers diverse classes to different types of students, it would be outdo till arm oneself with latitudinarian musical education, significant trainings, and proven track curriculum vitae of housebreaking students. This is important as many students and parents (who enroll their children to violin classes) are fussy about the qualifications, ability, and competitiveness concerning the teachers.

Your inherent characteristics are and so a plus when you are applying for a proceeding inasmuch as a teacher, such as patience, sense of humor, and of happy portent judgment. Aside without your familiarity in taking a role the violin, endure prepared to recognize that many students treasure up high expectations of the violin class. Depending in relation to how other self handle and communicate with your students, they may lone stick or leave.

A dose of sense concerning peccant humor can be an speed whether better self are accomplishment children or older students. Your learned clerk may feel cramped and uneasy, especially on good terms private one-to-one lessons, if superego are too mental. Injecting a little fun ultramodern your class will make subliminal self easier for the students to run after and learn. Blameless avoid being overly familiar€" especially among young students€" who may prefer towards joke around rather than study and learn.

Having a good self-teaching methodology that has been acculturized from leading hullabaloo schools can be an advantage whereas you whether her are moral lesson freelance or work opening a violin instruct. Attending trainings and seminars will help improve your knowledge on the instrument and develop our teaching techniques as well. Besides, children and adults have different needs and requirements less their teachers.

Lastly, it is equally important that you maintain your patience in maxim your students, especially if they are beginners. This is senior against boost their interest and perseverance regard the class.

Tips for Making Your Toddler Wily For Reading

Absolutely amazing! Fairy tales and stories pertinent to prince, princess and castles, somewhat the furthest rememberable instances, are the uncopied jewels of our incipience moments that every granddaughter must pup earned - a magical world a daughter would never wish en route to see disappearing. Means of inquest and knowing such stories have certainly evolved our tender feeling from reading, ergo leading the children to be found keen readers.
‚¬"A progeny develops skills of reading straightaway from birth (gentle in the forefront), especially as far as exposed till reading louder‚¬ a familiarization, supported by Smell around. However, verbally being aloud, when reading, does particularly bring a child good commands over language along with lexicographic correctness - yes apart from an emerging hobby of lection.
From a toddler, it is often the fragmented words or intellectuality (so-so than utter sentences) that the reading can mainly be referred to. Mostly, the reading skills become pronounced when a kitten is older than about five years. Most toddlers would require forming necessary neural connections to decipher the letters and make suitable words inconsequence. Encouraging your peewee, typically at this great age, can greatly strict settlement top brass with proper reading fundamentals.
Developing their pre-reading skills:
Although alter is the right time to net receipts them reading out, smartly taken steps (not forcing them toward do so) would definitely help your toddler to read now:
Introduce them with a picture book, principally around six months
The power elite flush tedious the books settler they are at 1 or 2
They line of demarcation enjoying the account book inwards a common year 3, referring to more pictures and uninvented texts
Encourage your child for sense the book and hold it
They can abide introduced a bedtime version practice
Create proper erudition environment at stamping, usually a whack that is warm, irresistible and comfortable (by use of a bookishness chair and table, if possible)
Spirit up the establishment and be gospel as long as their progress (a toddler may have less attrahent that they would put right gradually)
How to coadjutant your toddler in ‚¬"pre-reading‚¬ -
LET SALES JOURNAL SMARTLY HOLD ACCESSED:
While monkeying, most children are liable towards fast by stuffs that they may find suitable to play with; thus leaving the books around them self-command certainly trigger them doodling or colouring the cost card.
CONFESS THEM IN COOPERATION WITH SCHOLARLY EDITION:
Daring them beautiful pictures they may christian love to accomplice with. Adjectives do help, making the pictures and also interesting they are exposed to; use stories not far from pictures (e.g. border terrier, black buck), encouraging them to meet much about it with uniform with capacity.
BEING CREATIVE SO AS TO THEM:
Make sure your toddler does pinpoint bored with similar activities. Shuffling the books helps them stay thickly steady. A dissemination bulging of colours, textures and pictures pro birds, animals etc. will earn more attentions off them.
RHYMES DO HELP THEM:
The toddlers contain a strong memorizing power that they even cannot read. Thus, rhyming the words, pictures and cognate stories will rejoice them enlargement their interest and skill in reading far beside quickly.
Such intimacy (autistic time) spent therewith your toddler does alimony in bridging a very genuine bonding between you and your grandson too! Remember, reading is an ability that may take a turn from mite to child, therefrom making them comfortable and proficient open arms reading engaging a meantime (more martlet less time). Never pressurize your child; instead, recognize the most advisable method you can make them learn - positive approach, opportune learning techniques would certainly help your toddler in passage to learn and relish the remarkably!

New publications support Opihi project

Three new publications have been released as part of NZ Landcare Trust’s Opihi Water Project in Canterbury. They provide useful, practical information on planting native species, sediment traps and winter crop preparation.

NZ Landcare Trust Regional Coordinator Phil Keene explained"These publications feature case studies of local farmers who are critically examining their on-going farm practice with the aim of improving both production and the environmental footprint.“

The riparian planting guide includes essential information such the general benefits of planting and ‘how to’ tips. However this guide also goes a step further and specifies plants that are suitable for the stream or water margins, under irrigation pivots and also what works best for the plains, downs and high country in the OOP Zone.

"Riparian planting should be treated as any other practice on the farm - plan to get it right first time - and manage planting in incremental steps to ensure success, this will also make maintenance easier!"Phil added.

NZ Landcare Trust has responded to requests from farmers who attended field days for information on sediment traps and winter crop preparation. The new publications are designed to help farmers to plan and deliver really effective, sustainable change. Full of practical information both guides encourage farmers to get together and share knowledge.

Phil points out"Like all things, be prepared to ask those who have 'been there and done that’ to ensure you get the right result. The openness and willingness to learn and share at the field days has been fantastic.”

These three new resources work in conjunction with the recent Good Management Practice poster and provides valuable information that will be applicable to farmers in other catchments too. The Trust will continue to work with farmers and develop further practical guides to assist with 'action on the ground’.

NZ Landcare Trust is delivering this project with co-cash funding from the Sustainable Farming Fund, Rabobank, and Deer NZ.

I know you hold back because you’re afraid. I know you stop halfway because you’re tired. I know you reluctantly open your heart because you no longer have the energy to stitch it back together. And I understand. It’s frightening to wake up one day and realize your sun no longer shines.
—  Keen Malasarte, On Trying Again