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CSBB: I Thee Wed (16/16)

Once upon a time, Princess Emma and Lieutenant Killian Jones stole away into the dark of the night to elope. In the morning light, however, they must face the repercussions of their actions before they can live their “happily ever after.” This is where their story begins…

Rating:
M (Mild smut)

Other Pairings: Snowing

Author’s Note: 
Oh my god, it’s over. I finished by @captainswanbigbang fic. Thank you for everyone who stuck through this story. Your comments gave me life, and I cherish them all. One final thank you to @wexyuk . Special shoutout to my artists who also served as secondary readers, @piratesrumforswan , and @just-be-magnificent . Also, now that the story is over, feel free to shoot me some asks and I can provide commentary, my thought process, and reveal plotlines that changes over the course of writing this. 

[Ch. 1][Ch. 2][Ch. 3][Ch. 4][Ch. 5][Ch. 6][Ch. 7][Ch. 8][Ch.9][Ch. 10][Ch. 11][Ch. 12][Ch.13][Ch.14][Ch.15]

Read on AO3!

Chapter 15

Emma sat curled in the windowsill of the library, watching as the snow drifted down and began to blanket the grounds. If it kept this up, guests would be delayed in arriving to the ceremony, or might find the roads too treacherous to navigate, and choose not to come. There was a time not too long ago that Emma might have taken pleasure in that, too exasperated with the whole ordeal to even want people in attendance.

But then she stared at herself in her wedding dress, her mother glassy-eyed beside her, and Emma began to feel excited for the ceremony. Her first one with Killian had been perfect by virtue of it being the day she married her husband. It would forever remain perfect in her eyes. But now she had to admit that there were vital elements missing to that wedding, the presence and support of her family being first and foremost. It would be nice to have them present as she said her vows to Killian, and she took comfort in the support.

Unfortunately, her desires to have her parents present at this wedding only made her wish she had gotten through to Liam. She had yet to hear anything from him, and tempted as she was to hunt him down and drag him to the ceremony, she knew that would not be received well. Even worse, Killian hadn’t made any moves to reach out to his brother either, stubborn in his refusal to apologize any further. Emma wanted to smack their heads together and force them to speak, to do anything at this point, but she knew reconciliation was something they had to decide for themselves. She could nudge all she wanted, but they were the ones who had to take the next steps.

It was maddening. 

Keep reading

“Prepare For A Future Downturn”

Rather than a thoughtful discussion on ways to sustain the current renaissance of global economic growth, the leader of the IMF, Christine Lagarde, and leader of the World Bank, President Jim Yong Kim, plan to focus the next meeting of finance ministers and central bankers from 189 countries next week in DC on preparing for the next downturn. Reforms are needed to extend growth and mitigate against downturns rather than preparing how to respond when the next downturn occurs. They just don’t get it!

Barron’s lead article this weekend was titled “Melt Up Before The Storm” reflecting the continued skepticism by the pundits about the very foundation for the strong stock market performance. The experts clearly remain stuck in the past rather looking over the rainbow toward the future. They fail to recognize the positive implications of massive fundamental change everywhere.

Are you aware that the Fed is forecasting a high for the Federal Funds rate this cycle at 2.75% in a few years? Yep, a high! What does that say about their forecast for future inflationary pressures? Virtually all monetary bodies, including our Fed, fail to fully comprehend the massive impact of technology/disruptors and globalization that are putting downward pressures on all pricing.

Let me ask if you understand why global interest rates are so low, especially at this point in an economic cycle? The markets get it even if the monetary authorities do not! If bank liquidity and capital ratios are rising too, what does all this mean for the stock market multiple not only on next year’s earnings but also out 2 to 3 years? Why can’t the market sell at 24 times earnings with a 2.5% 10-year treasury and rising bank liquidity? And what if tax reform cuts corporate taxes by 10 to 15%, which increases S & P earnings to $150+ per share in a few short years. Now do you get why the market is performing so well? The market has a funny way of not letting people in who have failed to recognize the obvious which has been staring them in the face for so long and unfortunately continue to use the past to guide them rather than looking forward.

Since starting in 2013, Paix et Prospérité has had an exceptional few years correctly understanding the global political, economic and financial dynamics and inter-relationships. We have been tested at times and have had to make minor adjustments along the way but the key was sticking to our disciplines, successfully recognizing the longer-term trends, controlling risk and staying the course. That’s what George Soros taught me 30 years ago when I was CIO of the Quantum Fund. He was a great mentor, and I appreciate the 8 years that I was there before I started out on my own.

Let’s take a look at what was reported last week and whether it supports or detracts from our current view that non-inflationary growth is accelerating along with corporate profits while interest rates remain low by any historical measure at this point in an economic cycle:

  1. Clearly some U.S. economic statistics are being influenced by the two hurricanes but the undertone is one of accelerating strength along with rising optimism that a tax reform bill will be passed over the next few months cutting corporate taxes, offering a tax holiday to repatriate overseas cash and a middle class tax cut: wholesale sales rose 1.7% in August and are up 7.2% year over year while August inventories rose only 0.9% month to month and 4.5% year over year which means that the inventory to sales ratio has declined setting the foundation for an acceleration in sales ahead; employment declined by 33,000 jobs in September greatly influenced by the hurricanes but the unemployment rate actually declined to 4.2% while the participation rate rose to 62.1% and hourly earnings increased 12 cents or are up 2.9% year over year which was greatly influenced by the storms most penalizing low wage earners; durable good orders increased 1.7% and shipments rose 0.3%; the trade deficit declined in August to $42.5 billion heavily influenced by the storms hurting the ports; the Merkit services index stood at a strong 55.3 while the price front showed some acceleration and the PMI Output Index fell to 54.8 - most likely influenced by the storms; auto sales accelerated to over a 17-million annual rate, the strongest level for the year, most likely benefiting from the storms as over 500,000 cars need to be replaced; the CNBC economic survey revealed consumer optimism at a 10-year high which bodes well for a strong holiday season and was fully reflected in the National Retail Federation increasing their forecast to near 4% growth this year and finally the ISM Manufacturers Index rose to 60.8, the employment index rose to 60.3, new orders rose to 64.6 and the production index rose to 62.2.
  2. The Republican-controlled House passed a $4.1 trillion budget last week, which was the first step toward tax reform as it leads next to a legislative process called reconciliation during which tax reform will take place and can pass the Senate by a simple majority. While we fully expect changes in the bill to occur, the odds of passage over the next six months continue to rise which the financial markets have clearly noticed. Secondly, the Treasury issued a report Friday revealing guidelines for loosening financial regulations to “encourage” growth in the capital markets to boost the economy. And finally, it is clear by statements of Fed members this week that the Fed will remain one step behind until inflation accelerates and after the benefits of any tax reform are seen if they are stimulating the economy.
  3. Eurozone economic growth accelerated at the end of the third quarter as indicated by a final Eurozone composite output index of 56.7 and a business services activity index of 55.8, both up from the prior period. The ECB held meetings last week to discuss how to scale down its huge bond buying program while trying to understand the recent strength in the Euro and corresponding weakness in inflation. We expect the dollar to continue to strengthen as we said a few weeks ago as the odds of passage of Trump’s pro-growth, pro-business agenda improves which will go a long way to assist the ECB to curtail some of its aggressive easing policies.
  4. Japan’s business confidence is at a 10-year high, which Prime Minister Abe is using to his benefit having called a snap election for October 22nd to increase his majority over the government to further his party’s economic agenda.
  5. China’s Central Bank announced targeted easing to boost small business loans without aggravating high corporate debt. Listen closely to what is said and comes out of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party beginning October 18th and then the meeting between President Trump and President Xi Jinping in November. Don’t expect any trade moves by the Trump administration until after those meetings, if at all, as we expect negotiations between the leaders to resolve many of the issues. Also do not expect trouble with North Korea to escalate during this period, as it would embarrass the leader of China, which just won’t occur.
  6. The World Bank raised its growth forecasts for developing East Asia and Pacific for this year and next to 6.2% and 6.1% respectively while raising the spectra of trade protection penalizing these numbers.
  7. OPEC and Russia are clearly working to extend their production cuts well into 2018. Clearly the first-time visit of Saudi King Salman to Moscow to meet with President Putin says it all.

Let’s wrap this up.

While the majority of the pundits/hedge remain out of sync with the financial markets hoping for a correction to increase their exposure, the markets just won’t let them in. It is hard to imagine a better environment for investing as global growth is accelerating but not inflation; interest rates are staying low although the yield curve continues to steepen; earnings growth is accelerating; the probability of passage of tax reform and other parts of Trump’s pro-growth, pro-business agenda is rising; and Trump will be meeting with the head of China next month which should be a lid, at least temporarily, on an escalation of tensions with North Korea. I look for many positive developments from their face-to-face meetings that clearly are not discounted in the markets.

We continue to emphasize in our portfolios the large money center banks that will benefit from loan growth accelerating and a steepening yield curve; U.S. domiciled multinational industrials that will benefit from accelerating volume, tight cost controls and substantial gains in profits, cash flow and free cash flow; technology at a fair price to growth like Cisco, Microsoft and Oracle; the financially strongest and lowest cost industrial commodity stocks including domestic steel and aluminum including Alcoa and Nucor; and special situations like Dow-DuPont, Huntsman, FMC and Praxair.

One word of caution as we enter earnings season. There will be many anomalies as the hurricane will penalize many companies’ third-quarter earnings reports so look through that windshield rather than at the rear-view mirror and take advantage of any negative market reactions which are not deserved.

So remember to review all the facts; pause, reflect and consider mindset shifts; always look at your asset composition and risk controls; do in-depth independent research and …

Invest Accordingly!

Bill Ehrman
Paix et Prospérité LLC

anonymous asked:

dream roles?

i have a lot of dream roles, dear goodness. i am a soprano with a belt and a range that can go down a bit, so i can also play mezzos, so i have a lot of dream roles. in no particular order, here’s my list: 

1. christine daaé - phantom of the opera, love never dies (soprano)

2. baker’s wife - into the woods (mezzo-soprano)

3. evelyn nesbit - ragtime (mezzo-soprano)

4. mother - ragtime (mezzo-soprano)

5. amalia - she loves me (soprano)

6. ariel - the little mermaid: the musical (soprano)

7. leading player - pippin (tenor/contralto)

8. louise - gypsy (mezzo-soprano)

9. roxie - chicago (mezzo-soprano)

10. eliza hamilton - hamilton (soprano)

BONUS:  peggy schuyler/maria reynolds - hamilton (mezzo-soprano)

youtube

Jann Halexander ITW / Extrait reportage Les 20 ans de Bi'Cause 8 juillet…

3

i kinda cheated a little bit but i think i made it look cool enough to still work
✨✨redbubble✨✨

Good News Is Good For The Financial Markets

What a week! Trump addressed the United Nations National General Assembly; the Fed met; and the next, and most likely final, attempt to repeal/amend Obamacare has gone down in flames, yet again.

Consensus was: Trump would make a fool of himself in his address but did not; the Fed would hold off on raising rates but begin shrinking its balance sheet, which it did; and John McCain in a sign of defiance against Trump came out against and essentially blocked the Senate Bill to revise the healthcare bill. Trump supported his base by trying. Now it is full steam ahead on taxes, then trade, and finally, the infrastructure. All good for the financial markets.

It is finally clear that good news is good for the financial markets. I have written about this now and again over the past few years. And this is how it should be.

The key risk that remains is geopolitical: North Korea and Iran. The truth is that there is always conflict in the world that we must be aware of and factor into our investment decisions. The good news is it appears that China is fully on board to help us with North Korea, shown by their decision to curtail exports of energy products to them. The quid is an apparent pause in additional trade sanctions/tariffs from Trump/Ross against China for now. But if China does not voluntarily cut down on dumping of steel, aluminum and other products, Trump/Ross will impose added sanctions/tariffs down the road so this is not a dead issue, just dormant for now.

While there has been a sentiment shift to the more positive side, most of the pundits still remain cautious. One of the lead articles in this week’s Barron’s was to “prepare for the next move down.” I still have not seen anyone talk about preparing for the next leg up. I continue to say that the path of least resistance is up, which has proven correct since I mentioned it a few weeks ago.

Paix et Prospérité continues to outperform all indices for all the right reasons. We see global growth accelerating but not inflation; interest rates staying ridiculously low for this stage in a global economic recovery but with the yield curve steepening; the dollar finally strengthening as it appears that Trump will pass parts of his pro-business, pro-growth agenda over the next six months and earnings taking off as volume improves while costs stay under control. But not all markets or stocks are equal. That is our strength!

Let’s take a look at key events reported last week and see how they support, or not, our investment thesis:

  • The United States appears ready to become the engine of global growth in 2018 even after a pause in the third and fourth quarters caused by the two horrific hurricanes. Total damages and work stoppage exceeds $300 billion. That will all reverse and add to growth in 2018 and beyond.

    Here are just a few of the data points reported last week that support a strong base for acceleration in growth in 2018:
    • U.S. household net worth hit another all time high at $96.2 trillion
    • Holiday retail sales are projected to increase 4.0 to 4.5% in 2017 topping the 3.8% gain in 2017
    • Housing starts, impacted by the hurricanes were down slightly but permits rose a surprisingly 5.7%
    • The Business Roundtable index of hiring plans rose to a six-year high of 80.2
    • Senate Republicans are actively considering a $1.5 trillion-dollar tax cut over the next 10 years with a corporate rate falling to around 20%
    • It is worth adding that Daimler is investing $1 billion in an Alabama plant that will hire 600 people initially
    • Trump and his administration are emphasizing that tax reform is number one on their agenda with trade and infrastructure close behind
    • Toys “R” Us filed bankruptcy, another brick and mortar retailer bites the dust thanks to Amazon!
  • Just a few comments on the Fed decision last week, which was no surprise to us, as you know. While the Fed penciled in one more rate hike this year, officials pushed out their inflation expectations while lowering their path of interest rates over the next few years. Officials raised their forecast of growth to 2.4% in 2017, 2.1% in 2018 and 2.0% in 2019, which is the year that the Fed expects inflation to finally reach its 2.0% threshold. Policy makers expect 3 hikes in 2018, 2 in 2019 and 1 in 2020. Longer term the Fed expects interest rates to peak out at 2.75%, which is just incredible. Remember double-digit rates? I do!
  • The Fed will only reduce its holdings of all securities by $10 billion a month initially increasing by $10 billion each quarter to a maximum of $50 billion from October of next year if all goes well. Janet Yellen commented many times at the conference call after the Fed decision that low inflation is just transitory. I disagree and so does the BIS. Globalization is here forever putting pressure on pricing and inflation as well as the disruptors.
  • Growth in the Eurozone remains well above expectations as the 18% increase in the Euro year to date has not penalized exports for now. Eurozone consumer sentiment hit a 16-year high, which will provide support to surprisingly strong growth for the foreseeable future. Don’t forget that low inflation helps real disposable income and keeps the ECB from raising rates. The Eurozone PMI hit a multi-month high of 56.7 last month, too.
  • Growth in Japan should remain strong for the remainder of the year at least. The BOJ maintained its overly accommodative stance on Thursday maintaining its targets at around zero for government bond yields with short-term deposit rates of minus 0.1%. The Bank maintained its target of purchasing 80 trillion of government bonds over the next year. It was reported last week that exports rose at the fastest clip in four years in August expanding 13.4% despite a strong yen.

Let’s wrap this up!

The financial markets continue to rise on a wall of worry as most market participants look through the same prism of the past while not looking forward. I have been successfully managing money for 40 years and have rarely seen an environment so conducive for profitable investing both on the long and short sides of the markets as exists right now: economic growth is accelerating while inflation remains controlled; earnings growth is accelerating too as volume is finally growing with costs under control and financial risk has diminished as banks continue to increase their capital and liquidity rations.

Add to all of this the prospect of Trump passing tax reform, trade relief and a huge infrastructure program. None of this is reflected in the market yet as few believe that Trump can pass any of his pro-business, pro-growth agenda. But, I saw the pendulum begin to swing when he fired Banyon and Preibus then reach across the aisle to Schumer and Pelosi. Trump is a New Yorker and more a centrist than a right-wing conservative, as he has appeared to be to garner votes and support. But think about this: the Democrats need to be part of the solution and the right-wing Republicans have nowhere else to go without being labeled obstructionists. Some of Trump’s agenda will pass, and the markets will have a true Trump rally.

We continue to emphasize the large money center banks as the yield curve continues to steepen as the Fed remains one step behind; the U.S. domiciled multi-national industrials which will benefit from global growth and a weak dollar year-to-date; technology at a fair price; industrial commodity stocks including domestic steel and aluminum which will benefit from a huge reduction in Chinese capacity over the next few years; and special situations like Dow/DuPont, Huntsman and Praxair.

Remember that good news should now be considered good for the markets; so review all the facts, pause, reflect, consider mindset shifts, look at your asset composition and risk controls, do independent research and as always,

Invest Accordingly!

Bill Ehrman
Paix et Prospérité LLC

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Black River Sons, un an d'existence mais beaucoup d'expérience pour ce groupe lillois qui nous a asséné une bonne rasade de southern rock sur la scène du Raismesfest. Du groove et de la guitare à foison, de quoi taper du pied en s'envoyant une bière bien fraiche. Bon trêve de bla bla, goutez la partie live et vous comprendrez qu'il y a de quoi faire monter la température, même en hiver avec les fils de la rivière noire !

Arsène Wenger about Alexandre Lacazette

I believed that first of all he adapted to […] the way we want to play football because he connects well with the other players. He is disciplined (and) he works hard for the team. On technical and tactical aspect I’m very pleased. He still needs to adapt to the physical aspects of Premier League. That will probably take a little bit of time but otherwise there is no other problems. 

anonymous asked:

Thank you for writing I Thee Wed; it's such a lovely story ❤️ and I must admit I'm not usually a lieutenant duckling fan, but this story is so great. I can't wait to see where it leads. Hopefully a happily ever after possibly with a sweet little prince or princess 😊 but thanks again for writing! It is much appreciated! Have a great day!

Thank you so much for your nice comments! You’ll have to see what happens! A new chapter will be posted on Wednesday, and as a hint, Killian and Charming interact!