improving the odds

Come Inside

Summary: Dean’s in a mood…

Square Filled: Breeding Kink

Pairing: Dean x reader

Word Count: 1,100ish

Rating: explicit (smut (unprotected sex), language)

A/N: Written/created for @spnkinkbingo

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“He focused his power like he did in the fitness test, and used the throw from combat training. It’s not just that he’s learning from his experiences. He’s using every trick he’s picked up to improve his odds.

My Top 5 Shaw Moments

Shoot Week Day 2 - Favourite Shaw Moments 

(My top 5 Root moments are here.) 

1. Shaw’s sacrifice (411) 

I really appreciate that the writers gave Shaw this outstanding sendoff. They could have easily written Shaw out of the story to accommodate Sarah’s pregnancy by having her leave for Barcelona with Tomas in 407, but it wouldn’t have been true to her. Instead, Shaw chose to stay with the team and in particular, Root. Shaw’s defining trait is her unwavering loyalty. So when the team found itself in a dire situation, of course Shaw came to the rescue (and of course their odds improved dramatically; Shaw is such a bamf). Shaw immediately understood what needed to be done and didn’t even hesitate as she sacrificed herself for her friends and for the world. Everything about this scene was hauntingly beautiful – the blue tones, Root’s agony, the devastating music, the slow-mo, and Shaw’s defiant smirk in the face of death. What a hero.

2. “You were my safe place.” (504) 

I spent the entirety of this episode whispering variations of “I love you so much” and “Oh Shaw, my darling smol child.” Because we were deep in Shaw’s mind, we got to witness her at her most vulnerable. Her confession about Root being her safe place was so powerful, and, in addition to the fact that she killed herself 7053 times to keep Root safe, conveyed the profoundness of her feelings for Root. 

3. “A good soldier does both.” (216) 

This is essentially Shaw’s mission statement and summarizes her actions not just in Relevance (which is still the best character introduction I have ever seen), but throughout the show. Again, Shaw’s main quality is her loyalty. She is a soldier and will always do her job. However, she is also true to her friends. After completing her main mission (protecting the program), she avenged Cole. It’s striking to me that Shaw only killed Wilson, who had placed the hit on her and Cole and was therefore most directly responsible for the latter’s death. Shaw never takes lives needlessly. 

There was an interesting parallel to this scene in 513 as well. Shaw temporarily put aside her hostility toward Blackwell to guard the Machine as She was dying, but found him later and killed him. Therefore, she both protected the program and exacted her revenge. 

4. “The voices are there. You just have to listen.” (305)

This scene gave us insight into how Shaw feels things and emphasized that there is, in fact, nothing wrong with her. It was a lovely quote, and I was thinking about it heavily during the scene in 507 (QSO) when Shaw deciphered Root’s coded message hidden in the static. In that moment, Shaw quite literally listened to the faint static, and in turn, figuratively listened to her muted feelings. The fact that she quickly realized what 4AF meant indicated that she, like Root, had constantly been reminiscing about their last private conversation together before Shaw was captured. 

One of the reasons why I think Root and Shaw’s relationship works so well is that Root recognizes that it has never been a question of “turning up the volume” on Shaw; rather, it’s simply about listening and encouraging Shaw to listen as well. It’s about Shaw tuning into the noise and hearing an underlying “symphony.”  

5. “If you were a shape, you were a straight line. An arrow.” (513) 

This was such a deeply moving message of unconditional love. POI celebrates Shaw for exactly who she is - an arrow. She is emotionally and operatively constant, unwavering in her purpose. She’s perfect, and I love her with everything I have. 

Good afternoon, folks, and welcome to today’s statistical map - our second look this year at the bookmakers’ odds on who will win the contest outright. To get the broadest possible array of odds, we look at over 20 different betting agencies and make an aggregate of their odds. We then convert these decimal odds into percentage probability.

Two weeks ago, when we took our first look at the winning odds this season, we were at the first of the year’s crucial betting junctures: the point at which all songs had been out for a few weeks, major blogs started posting opinion pieces and the public response to this year’s songs could already begin to be gauged. Today, we reach a second critical point - all the preparties have been and gone, and 36 countries’ representatives have performed live at least once at them. Whilst the pre-parties gain the attention solely of the hardcore fans, they give the bookies a chance to evaluate an artist’s live performance and adjust their odds accordingly - in some cases, drastically.

So, what has happened in these past two weeks? My odds map, originally splattered with lighter hues and brighter colours signifying greater probability of winning, has become rather more sombre. Only five countries’ odds have improved; two countries’ odds have stayed precisely the same, and the remaining 36 countries’ odds have worsened. Two thirds of these countries (24 precisely) have seen their odds fall enough to fall at least one category on this map.

This is something that happens pretty much every year - the favourites’ odds continue to improve whilst others must tighten their belts. It is not always the case that the favourite gains so much in such a short amount of time. This year’s bookies’ favourite is Francesco Gabbani, and his odds of winning have shot up from 39.7% to 49% - a 23.4% increase in real terms - in a mere fortnight. Only Bulgaria and Sweden continue to be rated as having more than a 1/10 chance of winning after Belgium plummeted out of that group after some arguably shaky preparty performances. 

Only 13 countries have a chance of winning the contest that is higher than their purely mathematic one in fourty-two odds. Even more embarrasingly, for over half the field, the eliminated Russia are considered by the bookies to have more of a chance of winning than 23 of the other countries. At the very bottom of the pack are three countries who are considered to have less than a one in 200 chance of winning - Czechia, Slovenia and San Marino.

Tomorrow, we will take a look at how the odds changed and who have been the biggest winners and losers in the last fortnight according to the bookies!

project freelancer may have been intended to create a super-competent group of lone wolf soldiers, but the narrative wants you to know that no man is an island. it does this by only permitting the people who choose to co-exist with a group for a Just Cause to live, and killing people who act alone, whether for selfish reasons, just following orders, or pure misfortune.

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anonymous asked:

Yo, if your personal mode of transportation is emblazoned with American flags, although not in itself racist, it seriously improves the odds that you are racist, correct?

It takes it to basically 100%.

ML au fanfic Idea

Adrien wakes up  floating 20 feet in the air. He thinks he is flying and enjoys floating, until he notices that there is a crowd of people watching an ambulance.

He floats down there and sees his himself, or specifically his body being put into the vehicle. He naturally freaks out.

“Do you really have to shout? Your dead, it happens.” a voice from behind him says.

It is a black haired individual with green eyes (light green on the whites of his eyes, and dark green irises) wearing a I’m with stupid t-shirt and jeans.

He reveals himself to be a death god, or grim reaper or whatever. Calls himself plagg.

Adrien finds it hard to believe that this guy is basically death.

Plagg smacks him on the back of the head and says.

“Its idiots like you that make wearing this shirt all the more essential. You are floating in the air and you just saw the ambulance take your body. Use your head!”

Plagg reveals that Adrien isn’t 100% dead. He is only in a coma. But that he will die within a week or so. He then says his spirit was suppose to not leave his body yet, but he has one of those “Weird souls” that makes him defy norms. 

A red haired girl shows up and chews out Plagg for not explaining the important part of the ordeal. She calls herself tikki.

Plagg sighs but decides to explain.

“Technically you weren’t suppose to die yet. You also did a heroic act, and you are a goody goody, so we can give you a chance to come back to life. But you have to do something in order get that second chance.”

So plagg explains that he has to Fulfill the requirements. Problem is he is a spirit and needs someone living in order to help him do the tasks.

So Adrien needs to find a living person that can see him.

“You need to find someone who has a strong spirit that can see you, or someone that has a strong connection to you, like a family member, a close friend, a significant other. Someone that cares about you greatly. That doesn’t guarantee that they will see you but it improves the odds. If they have both, that would be great.” Tikki explains.

So now Adrien needs to find someone to help him comeback to life.

anonymous asked:

So I recently came out and even tho I have quite a lot of bi friends, I dont feel like they want to go to a gayclub with me. So my question is basically How do I know if a girl is gay/bi? (Im a girl) I feel like I dont have "gaydar" Or something hahah

Well, clubs aren’t everyone’s idea of a good time. They can be a ton of fun, but some people don’t like the noise, crowds, etc. If they say they are bi, though, that means they are, even if they aren’t into the idea of going to a gay club. If they haven’t said anything, there are a few things you could think about to try to improve your odds. Keep in mind that none of this is foolproof, though. We are a diverse group and there’s never going to be a surefire way to know without talking about it explicitly.

- keep an eye out for queer style elements: colorful hair, short or androgynous haircuts, undercuts; wingtip shoes and doc martens; flannel shirts, button-down shirts, especially buttoned to the top button or with short sleeves that are cuffed; piercings, especially septum (although this is increasingly coming into the mainstream); short nails. Keep in mind that style ranges widely based on what country or region you are in, the gender expression of an individual, as well as their age and their personal taste and style!

- LGBTQIAP+ cultural references. Honestly the #1 way I figure this out is by being facebook friends with them and then noticing that they like or share a TON of LGBTQIAP+ news, memes, etc. In conversation, possible references might include the show The 100, Tegan and Sara, Hayley Kiyoko, Orphan Black, Orange is the New Black (although this is pretty mainstream as well). Talking about a celebrity coming out is a pretty big sign too. And remember you can do these things as well to signal to potential other lesbian/bi/pan women!

- listen to the language they use. This mostly applies for people who might be out but you don’t want to ask and it’s not on their facebook profile. Someone who uses gender neutral language to talk about dating and relationships might be bi or pan (or lesbian!). Listen to pronouns if they talk about an ex, as this is a common way people signal their orientation. 

This is by no means an exhaustive guide, and of course you’ll never know for sure without communicating about it, but it’s somewhere to start!


A few years back there was a funny show called “My Name is Earl” starring Jason Lee. The premise was that Earl, a petty crook, was going straight and correcting all of his past wrongs because of “karma” which he defined as “do good things and good things happen”. Every time he would stray from this path something awful would happen to him. Cute premise but not quite right.

Karma cannot be seen as a punishing or rewarding force. This would have the same problem as that of an all powerful God namely that plenty of bad things happen to good people. There are no “lords of karma” who judge and mete out punishment and reward. Some Buddhist traditions teach this idea to the lay people in their sanghas merely as an incentive to do good and with the assumption that a farmer or shopkeeper is not going to understand the intricacies of the dharma. Buddhist teachers are specifically prohibited from teaching those who are unready.

Karma is cause and effect. Every event is actually a culmination of a nearly infinite number of causes. Some we cause. Some others cause. Some are caused by external factors. I sail my sailboat (I cause) into the wind (external cause) and a coast guard cutter nearly tips me over (others cause) and I spill my drink all over my new shirt. We only control a part of the causes so at times bad things will happen to us even if we act rightly. However, it is given to us to IMPROVE OUR ODDS through right action and compassion. It is not given to us to know all of the effects of our actions. An action taken today my have causes which do not manifest for years.

This is how karma works.

Always On My Mind

Word Count: 2046
Author’s note: Damnit! This got away from me, and is going to have to be a multiparter.
Tags: @medicatemedrmccoy, @yourtropegirl, @outside-the-government

Originally posted by karlurbvns

You’d taken the position at the bar out of desperation, and on a Friday night, that desperation rolled into a little bit of regret. Regret that you were stuck behind the bar. Regret that you weren’t on the dance floor. Regret, sometimes, that you weren’t just at home, tucked under a blanket on your couch watching TV. Tonight was one of those nights when you longed for the comfort of the knit afghan your mother’d given you last Christmas. It was cold, it was wet, and no one was braving the miserable weather to come for watered down beer.

You turned the TV sitting on the bar to face you, adjusted the rabbit ears until the picture was slightly less static and turned the volume up a little. You loved those Duke boys in their skin tight jeans, and the cook loved the chase scenes in the General Lee.

You heard the bar door slam and glanced up. A group of loggers, probably just in from a distant cut. You hoped they just wanted some grub and to head home because Manimal was on after Dukes of Hazzard, and you didn’t want to miss out on any of the studmuffins in the Friday night line-up. It was sad, but Luke Duke just did something to you, with those tight jeans and rolled up sleeves.

There was a thump from the table of loggers and you sighed and grabbed a notepad. You tucked your shirt in, and lost a button up top, hoping for better tips. Or any tips. It was a quiet night. You filled a pitcher with Bud, and filled a tray with glasses before heading to the table.

“Evenin’, boys. Bud’s on special tonight, figured you’d want to share a pitcher.” You placed the tray on the table and poured their first round. The guy closest to you smiled and you damn near melted. Luke fuckin’ Duke had walked into your bar, tight jeans, flannel shirtsleeves rolled-up and all. “You boys gonna need menus?”

“You on it?” He smirked. You bit your lip and tried not to smile, and failed.

“Might be a bit out of your price point, sweetie.” You winked, and his buddies instantly started ribbing him about striking out. “The special tonight is bacon cheeseburger, home fries, and coleslaw. But lemme grab you menus.” You turned to walk away, making sure your hips swung just enough that it looked casual and not deliberate.

“And another pitcher, honey, you sayin’ no is a tough pill for Gav to swallow,” one of the other loggers laughed as he called after you. You held your hand up to acknowledge you’d heard him and collected menus and a second pitcher before turning around and heading back.

“Let me know when you boys are ready to order,” you smiled, holding on to the cute one’s menu until last. “I’ll just be at the bar, watching my boyfriend Luke drive that Charger.” You caught the handsome one’s eye again and smiled.

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  • Liara's all but worked herself into the ground. She's about to fall into her terminals from exhaustion. Shepard comes by in her PJ's to say goodnight.
  • Shep: Liara I...Oh God.
  • Liara: Whu...?
  • Shep: Liara, when was the last time you slept?
  • Liara: I don't...can't. Need to do this, very important.
  • Shep: *croses arms* You collapse and you aren't doing anyone any favors. Go to bed.
  • Liara: Inasecond. Need this
  • Shep: *sigh* Come here.
  • Liara: to finish...
  • Shep: I'm not leaving until you're in bed.
  • Liara: ...
  • Shep: *crosses the room and holds her from behind.*
  • Liara: Muuhh, what are you doing?
  • Shep: Helping. *carefully removes coat*
  • Liara: Shepard I...
  • Shep: Am about to fall asleep standing. Go to bed Doctor T'Soni, that's an order.
  • Liara: I...I must...
  • Shep: Glyph? Save all work.
  • Glyph: At once.
  • Liara: Shepard, you don't understand, I have to...
  • Shep: Is someone going to die if you stop now?
  • Liara: N-no, but...
  • Shep: Then come here.
  • Liara: Shepard I...I...what was I saying?
  • Shep: *Smiles* you were giving me your gloves.
  • Liara: *very sleepy smile* I doubt that. *surrenders gloves anyway*
  • Shep: *Sheds away remainder of essential clothes* Bed. Now.
  • Liara: If I could just have another minute...
  • Shep: Nnnn. No.
  • Liara: Just a...*Shepard picks her up* Ahm.
  • Shep: No. Bed.
  • Liara: *softly* Need to finish calculating probable...
  • Shep: Mine.
  • Liara: Odds improve chance by .03%, need to run through...
  • Shep: *Carries her to bed and settles her under covers* Mine.
  • Liara: Then recalculate with different base of...
  • Shep: *Crawls in with her* Nnnnn. Hush. Sleep.
  • Liara: Can't leave out third excepted *Shepard kisses her* Mmmmmmn.
  • Shep: *turns out lights and pulls her into spooning position* Mine.
Pokémon Red/Blue question!

Hey guys! A friend and I have been rewatching all the Pokémon seasons as of late which brought up the question of some really early rumors we remembered being spread around as children playing the first games!

For the general lack of internet and ways to spread around rumors, almost everyone I know had heard some form of “Mew is under the truck next to the S.S.Anne and you can move it using strength”/ “exposing pikachu to a waterstone makes it evolve into a new Pokémon called pikablu” / “hold down+B to improve capture odds” / “Bills secret garden”

What I want to know is the country you live in, your age when you first played Pokémon Red/Blue and what version/variation of the above rumors you heard or believed!


Yep, automatic external defibrillators.

Found out in CPR class yesterday that you need a prescription from a doctor and then you must register the device.

So, it’s easier to get a gun than a device that improved the odds of surviving cardiac arrest from 5% to 65%

When are we going to say no to killing tools and yes to saving tools.

Creepypasta #362: Idiot's Guide To The End Of The World

1. If the world is ending, your first goal is to determine why. Zombies? Aliens? Nuclear war? Giant meteors? Flesh-eating nanobots? Understanding the threat early will improve your odds.

2. Ditch your friends and family next, preferably before they die in your arms. The Apocalypse is not the time to deal with emotional baggage.

3. Find a group of plucky survivors with a wide range of skills. But more importantly, none of them should be better looking than you. This way, the others will instinctively trust you and value your good genes. The only exception is if the group happens to include one beautiful person who is a true idiot. Beautiful idiots make excellent distractions when they die screaming, thus allowing everyone else to escape.

4. Cultivate your common sense. Authoritative leaders go crazy, super-intelligent nerds get smacked down by hubris, and heart-of-gold badasses get eaten while being stupidly heroic. Common sense will save your ass.

5. Befriend an animal. Their hisses and growls may come in handy. (But don’t get too attached. See tip #2.)

6. At the darkest moment, abandon your common sense to chase after the smallest, most wildly improbable hope you can find. You’ll only get one shot at this, so time it perfectly (or risk becoming the beautiful idiot).


The message goes on from there. It’s almost amusing, for spam. Looking up from your phone, however, you notice the people around you are all looking over each other’s shoulders and comparing screens.

Did they all get the same…?


Dozens of message alerts go off at once. You look down again.

Fun’s over. Get ready.

Credits to: IPostAtMidnight