When one is investing, one is dealing with the future. None of us - regardless of intellect - have actually been in the future, so we don’t know ourselves what we are talking about. Again, refer back to the Taleb book, we fool ourselves; we believe that we’ve seen the future and we do so by constructing conventional analysis. The city invests billions of pounds investing in specialists to be experts, and so we do fundamental analysis. But its just a flight of fancy. Unless we develop time machines and travel into the future, its a folly. So, we respect the need for conventional thinking - we certainly do our own conventional, pragmatic analytical thinking - but we make money by being emotionally intelligent and seeking opportunities through paradox and irony, which is the undoing of conventional thinking.
— Hugh Hendry, hedge fund manager, on his company’s philosophy - “Pragmatism - not idealism. Conviction is overruled if the market does not show confirmation.”