how is bulgaria better than this

Good afternoon folks - and welcome to our first odds map of Eurovision 2017. Every year, I take odds from as many bookmakers as I can - of songs winning, reaching the top 10 or qualifying from the semi-finals - and aggregate them. I then convert their odds to the percentage of probability they imply: decimal odds of 5 or fractional odds of 4/1 imply a 20% chance, for example. Today, we’re going to have a look at the current odds given for songs to win Eurovision 2017.

At the minute, the bookies seem pretty confident about the prospect of our first Big 5 win since Lena’s: according to them, Italy have a mammoth possibility of getting a third victory, the first since Toto’s in 1990 - with 39.7% chance of winning the contest, three times as much as any other country. Lagging behind them, but still able to join a rarefied group of only 4 countries given more than 10% chance of a win, are the perennially highly-rated Sweden (12.6%), along with a country that made a huge splash on their return, Bulgaria (13.1%) and, given their third strong year in the odds, something of a nascent powerhouse in Belgium (10.4%). 

Three more countries join the select group of 8 whose songs have a 1/20 (5%) chance or better of winning. Australia (5.1%) has been consistently highly rated by oddmakers since joining the contest, and Armenia (6.1%) with 9/10 qualifications and 7/10 top 10 finishes are seldom underestimated, but the biggest - and for me, most pleasant - surprise of this year is to see Portugal (8.1%), with its nigh 60 year history of being underesteemed at the contest, up there as the song with the fifth best odds of winning. (I will make a little confession - in 30 years’ viewership, I’ve never felt so close to being “done” with the contest as I was last year. My hopes for Portugal’s timeless and moving song are a big part of what have kept me interested in 2017.) The top 10 is rounded off by the stylish effort by Azerbaijan (4.8%) and Russia (4.9%) - because, even though it seems that they will not send another singer, bookies don’t want to take the risk of them having to pay out if they do.

There are some remarkable geographic divisions when it comes to odds of winning - which I’ve tried to make stand out even further in a second map, where we divide this year’s songs into three categories. At the top of the pack, we have songs that are considered to have more chance of winning than the average song this year (the sum of probabilities calculated by bookies always exceeds 100% - because of this overrounding, our 43 songs this year have a total probability of winning of 160.5%, thus 3.73% average.) The second category are countries that do not pass the average song’s odds, but do have a higher chance of winning than the purely mathematical average of 1/43 (2.33%). The last category are countries that have a lower chance than that average. 

From this, we see an exceptionally poor showing from central Europe, with Poland (2.4%) being the only country narrowly rated above the purely statistical average. Years of dubious selections and underperformance have taken the shine off the once much-vaunted Nordic superpowers - these days, it feels like Sweden et al, and indeed, only Denmark (and if one includes them in both this and the Baltic branch, Estonia) exceed the statistical average (2.6% each). The Baltic countries, whose collective star has been in the ascendant for the past two years, seem to be slipping too - whilst the biggest contiguous group of countries tipped for the top this year are in the east of the Balkan peninsula - where we find not just 2nd placed Bulgaria, but also Serbia, Romania (3.9% each), Macedonia (3.4%) and Greece (3.1%) amongst those with better than statistical average odds. You can check a full list of current odds below.

We will come back to look at the odds at regular intervals before Eurovision - one can only wonder how much they will change in the next few weeks, especially as pre-parties and other opportunities to hear the songs live can make a big impact. Will our winner this year be one of the current top 5? 

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Like i dont get it… if you are going to be a bitch and take every single deduction from Tasevas routines and then you give better scores to Zeng how im supossed to learn and believe this results? Like none of them has godly conditions but one is OBVIOUSLY BETTER THAN THE OTHER ONE and it SHOULD SHOW IN THE RANKINGS

Can Griskenas up her D?? Im sick at judges giving away scores to Zeng solely bc muh multi-continentality and being extra hard with Taseva bc shes Bulgarias second gymnast, at least Griskenas scores are justified

Fuck this shitty idea that we need more countries/continents represented THE SPORT NEEDS THE BEST AT THE TOP… if you want american countries at the top then you need to promote the sport better, you dont inflate scores to show that their program is growing at the cost of other programs

spoopylucius  asked:

Viktor and Ron. I need HS Riktor.

  • okay, so, as much as mrs weasley wanted to take in an exchange student - there’s not a terrible lot of room left in her house, not with all the kids, so the arrival of the exchanges arrives without much fanfare for the weasleys
  • it takes ron plenty of time to notice they’ve arrived - he only realises that the exchange has taken place when he’s trying to get into the canteen at lunch and it seems twice as packed as usual (honestly, what did they build it for if it couldn’t take any damn students?)
  • he doesn’t pay them much heed that first day, but when he comes in to school the next day, scrabbling in late, he almost runs headfirst into an exchange student looking with bewilderment at his timetable
  • “sorry,” ron blurts out, his britishness never failing
  • the exchange barely seems to have noticed; he’s built like a brick wall, with a shaved head, so someone light like ron maybe doesn’t even register on his radar
  • “excuse me,” he says, voice thickly accented with some kind of european accent ron can’t peg because it’s not a) french, or b) german, “i do not know where this class is”
  • ron squints over his thick hands and at the timetable; he swallows, because this exchange is - he doesn’t really know how to explain it to his own head, but his stomach is dropping and feels strange and his head is half-becoming mush as he realises how close he is to the exchange
  • ron’s just barely realised he’s gay: he feels like his mind is going to blow
  • he focuses on the timetable, though: he’s here to help the student, not eye him up, right? right. 
  • “oh, i’ll take you there,” he offers, because trying to direct anyone across the labyrinth of school corridors is nigh-on impossible without physical direction; he sets off down the maths corridor, past the bright rows of colourful bubble-writing declaring maths (which is not fun) to be fun (no; it’s hell - to ron, anyway)
  • “so, are you an exchange student?” he quips curiously 
  • “yes,” the exchange says, in what’s almost a bark, “from bulgaria”
  • “i like bulgaria,” ron says (he knows nothing about it). “what’s your name? i’m ron”
  • “viktor,” says exchange. “your school - it is, i am not sure how to say, very… difficult?” 
  • ron attempts to decipher this; he’s never been good at languages, so he certainly can’t ask viktor to say it in another language. “do you mean it’s hard to get around? like, complicated? like a maze?”
  • viktor nods. “yes, like a maze. i am sorry. my english is not good.”
  • “better than my french, mate,” ron laughs, delivering viktor safely to his chemistry classroom, just past maths. “here we go. i’ll see you around?”
  • viktor nods. “i will see you later,” he says, and it’s a statement, not a question; ron heads off to his own class, rather confused to this conversation ending, his heart still pounding - viktor looks so good, after all, and has this kind of presence that seems to take up the whole corridor
  • and he does see viktor around: it’s lunchtime when viktor appears again, striding faultlessly and confidently up to ron where he’s eating lunch with harry and hermione, just outside the school building
  • “ron,” he says, and then doesn’t seem to know what to say after that
  • “do you wanna eat lunch with us?” ron says helpfully, and viktor nods, squashing up at the free end of the bench and crushing the friends together; harry doesn’t look too pleased, but hermione just smiles politely
  • “are you enjoying your time here, viktor?” she asks
  • he nods. “yes,” he says, “but i like most the people”
  • ron goes red, because viktor looks right at him when he says this
  • and, to make matters worse (or better), they share their next class: it’s ron’s hated, maths, but viktor seems to understand it so naturally, and, sitting next to ron, leans over and explains it in as gentle a tone as possible 
  • he finds it hard to explain with english as his second language, but ron guides him through it: and at the end of the lesson, he thinks he might’ve learned more in that hour from viktor than he’s learned in years of public schooling 
  • he can’t wait for maths the next day; he smiles at viktor, and he can actually finish the textbook work this time, suddenly understanding what he’s meant to be doing 
  • hermione laughs at him at lunch - viktor tags along, of course, but she waits until he goes to get a drink of water to laugh - and elbows him: “so, got a thing for krum, have you?”
  • “what? i have not!” ron says, deeply offended by this accusation 
  • “you do so,” hermione insists, and ron sighs; he can’t keep anything from her, can he?
  • “okay, just a little bit,” he says defensively. “i like him. i think he’s good-looking”
  • she giggles. “you two would be good together,” she advises, and somehow, ron doesn’t think it’s a joke
  • it’s the end of the next week and the end of a glorious week of maths learning with viktor that anything really moves; ron’s heartbeat has been fluttering more, and he swears he’s been feeling more of an atmosphere from viktor
  • viktor follows him out of class, taking him aside to the nook where the elevator is, suddenly looking awkward in his physical space where beforehand he’s always looked so effortlessly confident 
  • “ron,” he says slowly, “i would like to go on a date with you this weekend, if that is alright” 
  • ron’s grin blossoms on his face; he can’t remember the last time he’s been this happy - the chudley cannons winning the football league doesn’t even touch this
  • “hell yeah, it’s alright,” he says eagerly. “i would love to”
  • and viktor’s smile, too, is just amazing

send me a hp pair and i’ll write high school headcanons!

It always amazes me how many people speak such good french! I mean, the language is difficult (let’s be honest) but they manage to speak it even better than some French! With the slang and little expressions too!

Today, I had a chat with a colleague from Bulgaria and her french was amazing! A lot of other colleagues from Romania speak it so well too! It’s so wonderful! They’re not even required to speak French as it’s a worldwide company and only english is required. 

At the same time, I look at our politicians who can’t speak two words of english.

Seriously, we’re so lazy.

So yeah. Kudos to all french speaking people around the world. You’re doing great!