Even without factoring everyone’s particular strengths and weaknesses, there is a 4.16 percent chance of victory. And in the beginning, with everyone rushing toward the horn-shaped, weapon-filled “Cornucopia” building, those chances become totally random. What if you’ve trained for the past month to grab the spiked mace, only to watch the jerk from District 7 run away with it? And if you’re trained with any kind of long range weapon, those first few minutes are going to be the most dangerous, because bows work way better when you’re twenty feet away from someone than knee deep in their personal space.
Those first few minutes are going to be a bunch of people swinging wildly with weapons possibly not built for swinging wildly. Your odds of winning, or at least not being decapitated by multiple ubiquitous swords become way better if you can train in something long range, and immediately leave the frenzy. If you try to do your dystopian warrior-slaying in the big melee, your chances are basically randomized. Learn how to use a bow and get the hell outta dodge. Then pick people off as they try to figure out what to do with a little dagger in a massive jungle. If it helps, repeat “I’m Jennifer Lawrence. I’m Jennifer Lawrence” to yourself.