guestimating

In the crock pot: black beans, onion, bay leaf and fire roasted jalapeños - I’m living dangerously and using 4. I add already boiling water to these at about 3:1 ration with the beans and leave them on high until they smell really good - maybe 4-5 hours. #vegan #guestimating (I also added two cloves of garlic) (at My Little Pink House )

4

Cape tests!

This the mock up! Because I had to go patternless I have to guestimated literally everything on this ludicrously designed shit but it turned out great!

So I’m going to transform this into a traceable pattern and then remake this better but here’s the test for ya.

filbypott asked:

I'm trying to design some psychic monsters and I'm having trouble deciding how many PE points to give them. I know it's more guestimation than following a strict formula, but I have trouble gauging how many PE points are too many or too few for its function.

Unfortunately, we are not equipped to answer rules questions through Tumblr and other social media platforms. Heading to the Rules Questions forums is going to be your best best to get this answered!

meaningfulprocrastination asked:

Hey, Keep up the awesome work translating and all that. Your blog has literally become one of my favourites :D Btw, do you when the new album will be coming out? I'm so keen for it. Cheers :D

Hey there. Thank you! Aww that’s so sweet of you :)

Well they were supposed to go to Mexico in late January-early February to start working on the new album, but I guess they got busy. So maybe after Thailand they will start recording the new songs?

I know nothing about how much time it takes to produce a record and get it all done, but if I were to guess, I’d say their new album should be out sometime in the 2nd semester of 2016…

(I love your username btw lol…I can relate ;D)

anonymous asked:

I had my first riding lesson yesterday and the instructor asked me how much I weighed and then she had me weigh myself on a scale in front of her before she introduced me to my lesson horse. Is this normal? She said it was part of making sure the horse was a good match for me but I just felt really uncomfortable about it...

Weighing riders (rather than guestimating weight) is not the norm at most stables I’ve been at, but it’s very pragmatic. Though they shouldn’t have asked you to self report weight as most new riders probably don’t know their weight in gear, and weighing you after asking you your weight seems a bit lacking in tact, would probably have come off better just to weigh you straight up. It’s probably nothing judgemental about you though, I expect that the instructor is just knowledgeable enough to know that most horses can only carry 10-15% of their bodyweight without undue suffering (up to 20% if they’re thick boned, thick loined, and well conformed), so it is important to make sure that riders and gear are both suitably matched to the horse. Personally as a hefty 5'10" rider there are a lot of horses I can’t ride, so I’m pretty sure your instructor would have weighed me also, had I been in your position. Give the instructor the benefit of the doubt unless they did something else to make you uncomfortable, odds are it wasn’t mean spirited, and they care about their horses but just need a bit more tact with people (not uncommon with horse people, mind).

Also p.s.: if you do happen to have a muffin top as well, let me just say that the riding pants made out of that otherwise reprehensible jeggings fabric are super comfortable and much more forgiving than the vice like waistbands of most jodphurs.

New Hampshire: The Return of the Comeback Kid?

It appears all but certain that Bernie Sanders will beat Hillary Clinton in the New Hampshire Primary tomorrow (2/9). As Sanders currently enjoys a double-digit lead in the polls, seemingly the only drama in the race will be the margin of victory.  Indeed, much attention is currently being placed in how much Clinton can cut into the lead. If she beats expectations, many will be tempted to frame her performance as a victory in the mold of her husband’s surprising 2nd place finish in the same state in 1992, when he was given the label of the “Comeback Kid”.

Five Thirty Eight takes a look at this issue in detail with an article published 2/5.  The author “guestimates” that Hillary will be able to spin her loss as a positive if she goes down by single digits.  Conversely, if Sanders wins by 15 points or so, he’ll look like the candidate to beat as the campaign moves to South Carolina. 

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/bernie-sanders-needs-a-big-win-in-new-hampshire/

Given some momentum in the polling on Clinton’s side, it would seem logical that the final margin of victory in the granite state would be somewhere in the middle; that is, more than 9% and less than 15%.  But it is instructional to drill down into the numbers a bit.  As noted in previous posts, the latest Monmouth poll has copious data of interest. 

http://www.monmouth.edu/assets/0/32212254770/32212254991/32212254992/32212254994/32212254995/30064771087/2114e68d-b5a1-46c5-a375-2d112a71d050.pdf

From the link above:

“Democratic voters are significantly more likely to prioritize shared values (63%) than the ability to win the White House (23%). Another 13% feel there is no need to choose between these two concerns. Sanders voters are much more likely to place a premium on shared values (82%) over electability (10%), while Clinton supporters are more divided between shared values (43%) and electability (37%).”

These numbers indicate that Sanders’ lead is not going to evaporate overnight.  His supporters are passionate and unlikely to leave him at the altar. 

Are there any other factors one should consider in the final 24 hours of this heated race?  I would propose 2: Undeclared voters, and the elephant – or in this case, donkey – in the room, Bill Clinton. 

In New Hampshire, voters not registered with any party can vote in either primary.  However, Republican and Democrats cannot vote in the opposite party’s primary.  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Hampshire_primary  How, if at all, will this affect the Clinton-Sanders race?  It really is hard to know. In the Monmouth poll, “Likely Republican Primary Voters” include 29% Registered Independents, while 28% of Likely Democratic Primary Voters are Independents.  With so much extensive polling done, it would be a surprise if independents delivered a shock to either candidate.  On the other hand, it’s entirely believable that staff members on each campaign wake up in the middle of the night envisioning the nightmare scenario of independent voters deciding at the last minute to chose their opponent’s candidate over, say, Trump or Kasich.

Now to the most famous political husband of all time: William Jefferson Clinton.  He had been staying quiet for most of the campaign, but after his wife’s disappointing finish in Iowa he re-emerged in the attack dog role.  Among his many criticisms of the Sanders campaign were charges of “sexist” and “profane” attacks against Hillary supporters online, mocking Bernie for accepting money from wealthy donors, and, according to the Washington Post article cited below, “selling pipe dreams to supporters”.  The last charge particularly calls to mind Bill’s miscalculation in 2008 when he called Obama’s candidacy “the biggest fairy tale I’ve ever seen.”  These comments shouldn’t have anywhere near the affect in this year’s primary as they did in the long term nomination race in ’08, but they may slow a bit Hillary’s momentum in New Hampshire.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2016/02/08/bill-clinton-unloads-on-bernie-sanders-ahead-of-crucial-new-hampshire-primary/?wpisrc=nl_az_most

7 weeks... ish.

My guestimation is that I’m approximately 7 weeks pregnant judging by when I think my last period started. If you want to know more about my backstory and about me, check out my about page. Right now, I’m feeling just generally blah. Between the morning sickness, the exhaustion, a general level of nausea all the time, and the random aches and pains (that I keep vigorously googling, and are apparently normal) it makes classes and homework hard. My neighbor and good friend refers to the baby as “Blueberry” because What to Expect tells me that’s the approximate size of my little parasite right now. It’s sort of endearing really when she asks how the Blueberry is doing and tells me to be careful on ice so that I don’t hurt the Blueberry. It’s nice to have support. Many of my friends are clearly against my decision to continue my pregnancy. I’ll admit, I’m not in the ideal situation to have a baby, but I’m dedicating myself to getting there. When I’m lying in bed, awake way too late for my own good, I occasionally indulge in a baby name site or two. For whatever reason, it seems to calm some of my fears - humanizing this unknown entity I’m growing inside of me. 

Drummers!

What is a good starting set from PDP, Yamaha, or Ludwig?
Or any other recommended brand that has good quality.
Just a basic set, snare and stand, 2 rack toms, floor tom, bass drum and pedal, high hats and a cymbal, don’t really care if it’s crash or ride.

I’m just looking for a good basic set to practice and get better. Possibly around $400 ish dollars?
I’m not entirely sure what those sets run for I’m just guestimating at this point

vine

Its snowing again. People doubt my guestimation that this shit will be here till May. I have no such doubts.

We’re watching Puppy Bowl. Who comes up with the breed descriptions for these puppies because they’re WAY off. They say Sassy here is a Boston Terrier. It’s obvious she’s a mix but there is NO Boston Terrier in this dog. 

They’re saying Tate is a Chow/labrador mix. WHAT?!!

Don’t get me wrong, I think it’s great that they’re promoting rescue/shelter dogs and trying to find homes for them. I just think they need to do better with the breed descriptions and I know they’re giving their best guestimate but some of them are extremely off. I know some folks like to know what they’re getting when they adopt a dog but it’s kind of a disservice to claim a dog is a mix of a breed(s) when it’s obvious that they’re not. They’re better off just calling those dogs “All American Breed” when you really can’t figure out what they are. That way, your guess as to what the dog is a mix of is as good as anyone elses, lol.

Wedding Preparation Post 1

Wedding Date: September 17, 2016

225 Days to Go

Feeling: Calm

Since this is the first post I’ll catch you up to speed on what I’ve done so far. First and foremost…mutually decide upon a budget. Then guestimate how many guests you plan to have. If you can, even start collecting emails and addresses of people you know you are going to invite (I have found this is the most difficult part, especially for family members and friends that are from out of town).

Last Summer, I started looking up venues online at WeddingWire and the Knot (two VERY useful tools). After seeing a few venues, we finally made a decision on Wood Ranch Golf Club in Simi Valley. I absolutely LOVE our venue. We’re going to hold both ceremony and reception at this location. The ceremony is outdoors with a beautiful gazebo overlooking the golf course. Then the reception area is very roomy and beautiful.

Secondly, we ended up attending a bridal show where we found two of our wonderful vendors (our photographer and our DJ). Next, I started looking for an officiant and booked him by November. I also was able to find a beautiful wedding dress, that I can’t wait to show off. (If you are comfortable with the idea, renting your wedding dress is a more cost effective idea). I have also picked the awesome women in my life to be in my bridal party (1 maid of honor and 3 bridesmaids). 

In late November, we had our engagement photo session, and by mid-January we had all the photos ready for download. I plan to use these in our Save the Date emails.

Since then, I really haven’t done much wedding planning. I’m on Pinterest and weddingwire here and there, but really haven’t done much. It’s time to get back in the swing of things. lol. 

Recommendations: Start a Pinterest board and share it with your bridal party so you can bounce ideas off each other, or just to share what your plan is. Bridal shows are very useful. Start early on your guest list. Make sure to not invite too many unnecessary people, remember…the cost goes up with every mouth you have to feed.

Don’ts: Do not break your budget. Stay within your means. There is always an alternative to what you think you want.

Up Next: Wedding Cake. Hair & Make-up.

Stay tuned!

Free video course: applied Bayesian A/B

Free video course: applied Bayesian A/B

Free video course: applied Bayesian A/B testing in R – As a “thank you” to our blog, mailing list, and Twitter followers (@WinVectorLLC) we at Win-Vector LLC have decided to re-release our formerly fee-based A/B testing video course as a free (advertisement supported) video course here on Youtube. The course emphasizes how to design A/B tests using prior “guestimates” of effect sizes (often you…

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