Global climate models aren’t given nearly enough credit for their
accurate global temperature change projections. As the 2014 IPCC report
showed, observed global surface temperature changes have been within the range of climate model simulations.
Now a new study
shows that the models were even more accurate than previously thought.
In previous evaluations like the one done by the IPCC, climate model
simulations of global surface air temperature were compared to global
surface temperature observational records like HadCRUT4. However, over the oceans, HadCRUT4 uses sea surface temperatures rather than air temperatures.
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i. wolf - tailor ii. me and the devil - soap&skin iii. i followed fires - matthew and the atlas iv. patron saint hunter - timber timbre v. fresh blood - eels vi. the wolf - fever ray vii. bloodheat - archie bronson outfit viii. biting down- lorde ix. skin - zola jesus x. wolf - first aid kit
From Hawaii’s flurry of hurricanes, to record high sea ice in
Antarctica, and a heat wave that cooked the Australian Open like shrimp
on a barbie, 2014 saw some wild weather. How much of that was tied to
climate change is what scientists around the world tried to answer in
the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society’s annual attribution report, which was published Thursday.
What they discovered was that the clearest impacts of warming could be found in heat-related events,
from heat waves on land to unusually hot ocean waters. Other events,
like droughts in East Africa and the Middle East, California’s intense
wildfires, and winter storms that continually swept across the eastern
U.S., were harder to pinpoint. In part this is because such events are
inherently complex, with a multitude of factors influencing them.
For example, while the East African drought was found to be both more
likely and more intense because of warming, the situation in the Middle
East was less clear, with no discernable climate change connection to
the various factors that influenced it. Likewise, no direct push from
climate change could be found in California’s wildfire activity, though
it is clear that it is increasing the overall wildfire risk there.
And while some events, like the U.S. winter storms and the record
high Antarctic sea ice extent, could be pinned to a particular cause,
that cause could not be linked to climate change. For other events, like
the drought in Brazil and flooding in the Canadian prairies, humans
influenced the likelihood in other ways besides the greenhouse gases
that continue to be emitted into the atmosphere.
What was clear, though, is that the fast-growing field of what is
called extreme event attribution is gaining momentum. Researchers are
casting a wider net for extreme events to examine and continually
refining their methods. Attribution work has traveled a considerable
distance since its inception just over a decade ago.
“Extreme event attribution” is a new topic for me. Very cool science right thar.