Daniel Castro and Alan McQuinn wrote a report for the Information Technology & Innovation Foundation (ITIF) called “The Privacy Panic Cycle: A Guide to Public Fears About New Technologies”. The authors want to highlight the dangers associated with
“the cycle of panic that occurs when privacy advocates make outsized claims about the privacy risks associated with new technologies. Those claims then filter through the news media to policymakers and the public, causing frenzies of consternation before cooler heads prevail, people come to understand and appreciate innovative new products and services, and everyone moves on.”
It’s a niece pice of research, intersecting the better illuminated areas “moral panics” and “technopanics”, and - of course - criticizing the hype of the hype cycle for new technologies by Gartner. Worth a read.
3D Printing Market to Double In Size Each Year Until 2018, Reaching 2.3 Million
The 3D printing market is growing rapidly. A new report from Gartner indicates that the number of 3D printers will reach over 217,000 which is double the 108,000 shipped in 2013. And this doubling will continue. Gartner forecasts that the 3D printing market will double it’s size every year until 2018 when it will amass 2.3 million worldwide shipments.
Gartner’s top strategic predictions for 2016 and beyond (my 2¢)
Daryl Plummer, VP of Gartner, announced Gartner’s Top Predictions during Gartner Symposium/ITxpo in Orlando. It’s all about digital business, the race against competitive autonomous machines, IoT and smart devices talking to each other, the relationships between people and machines et cetera. Usual stuff, if you’re following. Therefore, let’s see what 27 analysts (!) have produced:
By 2018, 20% of all business content will be authored by machines.
By 2018, 6 billion connected things will be requesting support.
Interesting narrative development. They’ve probably thought: We’re oversaturated of simple IoT devices forecasts. So let’s add “they need support” and create something unique and new. Well done. I wonder what would happen if 6 billion devices request suppport at the same time? Denial-of-service.
By 2020, autonomous software agents outside of human control will participate in 5% of all economic transactions.
Hm. Just 5%? What about all the fintech bots and algorithmically driven agents that conclude deals in milliseconds, execute VC investment decisions, support financial advisors with automated advices and the general development of electronic trading? What about the Blockchain? And don’t forget the socio-tech trend, that rich people increasingly prefer to get their financial advice from robots. Pent-up demand.
By 2018, more than 3 million workers globally will be supervised by a “roboboss.”
Trending topic atm, so I’m surprised to see it here. But a quick internal search shows, that the issue had already been adressed last year. Furthermore, there are a lot of portents for a Mechanical Turk economy. In a probable future, we’ll only get jobs because we’re cheaper than machines. With the words of Lilly Irani: “Automation doesn’t replace labor. It displaces it.”. Highly recommended talk: Johannes Kleske - Mensch, Macht, Maschine. Automatophobia.
By YE18, 20% of smart buildings will have suffered from digital vandalism.
YE18? Do we see here the the emergence of a new calendar1? Anyway, digital vandalism in smart environments is just another term for hacked infrastructure. It’s an unsettling thought and YES we need better security and privacy systems for home automation, smart homes, offices, their APIs etc. But I’m looking forward to friendly art hacks where nobody gets hurt. And keep in mind: Not everything has to be connected. Be sure to read “Understanding the connected home” by Peter Bihr and Michelle Thorne for more informations about the ecosphere of smart homes, UX and future settings. Futures noir.
By 2018, 50% of the fastest-growing companies will have fewer employees than instances of smart machines.
Digital Transformations = speed, cost savings and productivity improvements. I don’t know current market stats and figures but if you’re looking at the success of UBER, WhatsApp, Airbnb, Alibaba etal and A16z presentations you’ll see the gigantic market power of software driven companies. The interface is where the profit is. Software is eating the world.
By YE18, customer digital assistants will recognize individuals by face and voice across channels and partners.
Ahm, I don’t understand this one tbh. According to Gartner, a customer digital assistant is powered by facial recognition, voice identification, emotion detection, natural-language processing and audience profile data. A pimped up Siri or PS4 if you like, that has access to your profile and interaction data. Think of a mobile (!) skype call with an animated character instead of using the amazon website. Confused.
By 2018, 2 million employees will be required to wear health and fitness tracking devices as a condition of employment.
By 2020, smart agents will facilitate 40% of mobile interactions, and the post-app era will begin to dominate.
Another trending topic. Big fan. Instead of using apps, we’ll rely on textinterfaces and (human/bot) agents in the future. Hybrid AI, Intelligent Assistants, social robots, domestic AI, on-demand mobile Virtual Assistants, Personal Assistants or Assistive Intelligence. Call it as you like. We’ll have to face NLP- and machine learning driven software and hardware, orchestrating our life over APIs and hidden backchannels. But first we have to talk about trust. AI.
Through 2020, 95% of cloud security failures will be the customer’s fault.
People have always been the greatest security risk. Don’t know why that should change, or is worth mentioning. No brainer.
You have to admit, that they know how to write predictions and forecasts, although 27 authors are 22 too much (somehow they have to justify their prices). No matter. There’s enough background material if you’re willing to sign up. The predictions are therefore more conjectures - reasoned speculations about the future - than mysterios omens based on augury or hepatoscopy (= hype cycle methods).
However, the underlying dystopian echo is surprising. A lot of the predictions advertise futures with a bad aftertaste. Even the summary sounds like a prelude to a mediocre near-future robo-corporate-surveillance-scifi flick:
The dramatic rise of smart machines and autonomous devices is driving radical shifts in business practices and individual behaviors. Enterprises and individuals face the urgent need to define and develop harmonious relationships between people and machines.
Either way. At the end, all of the predictions above are marketing material. If you’re afraid, ask Gartner. If you want to make money, ask Gartner. If you want to know more, ask Gartner. If you want to know what the future brings, ask Gartner. Don’t believe me? Here’s Gartner’s top 1 recommendation:
Use Gartner’s predictions as planning assumptions on which to base your strategic plans.
At least they’re honest. And now: Everyone please stand up and follow Gartner into the future.
Footnote: Spelling and Grammar unaudited.
Sjef enlightened me: “YE18 = 18th cycle of the rule of our Lord Kanye, may the Futch be upon him.” Praise shingy'ism. ↩
Gartner Highlights Top 10 Strategic Technology Trends for 2015
Gartner unveiled the ten technology trends to watch out for in 2015 while at the Gartner Symposium/ITxpo in Orlando this week. The trends cover three themes: the merging of the real and virtual worlds, the advent of intelligence everywhere, and the technology impact of the digital business shift.
More and more activities in ERP solutions is automation, the system analyzes the data, predicts and suggests solutions but the final decisions always belongs to the user of the system.
Gartner research firm predicts that spending on enterprise applications will amount in 2019 around the world over 201 billion dollars, an increase that is generated mainly by three factors: development of functional projects related to digital transformation and modernization of systems. Under the concept of modernization lies the monolithicity of reduction systems, increasing their flexibility and increasing “self-service”.
ERP’s self-service system involves the collection of data from multiple sources, intelligent interpreting them and taking action based on analyzed information with minimal user. Self-service solutions can independently analyze not only the growing number of data generated by people but also by all sorts of devices and such devices are connected to the Internet, Gartner analysts think, will be 26 billion in 5 years. - Automating systems has obvious benefits: reducing costs, saving time, the ability to focus on key business processes. It makes it easy to carry out changes in the organization by the ease of the system adapt to new conditions. The philosophy of self-driving ERP is based on the automation of previously manual tasks, reduce or completely eliminate the need to enter data through the use of intelligent recommendations for their implementation. - says Jacek.
via Gartner Blog Network gbn-feed – Gartner Blog Network http://ift.tt/1UlHBeg Jake Sorofman A cliché is a phrase or idea that, while often founded in truth and good intention, mutates over time into something more insidious. Clichés are what happens when simple becomes…
The Hype Cycle is a graphical presentation developed and used by IT research and advisory firm Gartner for representing the maturity, adoption and social application of specific technologies. The five phases include (1) Technology Trigger, when a potential technology breakthrough kicks things off; (2) Peak of Inflated Expectations, when early publicity produces a number of success stories—often accompanied by scores of failures; (3) Trough of Disillusionment, when interest wanes as experiments and implementations fail to deliver; (4) Slope of Enlightenment, when more instances of how the technology can benefit the enterprise start to crystallize and become more widely understood, and (5) Plateau of Productivity, when mainstream adoption starts to take off.
Hung LeHong, Gartner Fellow: boundaries between industries, industry sectors and industry role are being kicked down by digital technologies:
“In the digital future, a human can talk to a ‘thing’ such as requesting a driverless taxi, just as easily as a ‘thing’ such as a building, can contact a human maintenance worker because the building predicts that a surge in foot traffic means the garbage cans must be emptied soon.
“Digital technology is improving our products, services and processes, our customer and constituent experiences, and the way we work in our enterprises and within our partner. We do what we normally do, but digitalization allows us to do it better or develop better products.”
For me, this chart does a great job illustrating how we are just now embarking on a realistic journey down a path to a visionary future we once only dreamed and made fictional movies about. In just 5-10 years from now, according to Gartner, we’ll be living a life where language is no barrier (speech-to-speech translation), we can create anything we want at home (3D printing), where cars will drive themselves (Autonomous Vehicles ) and we can monitor and manage our health without having to wait in incredibly long health care lines (Home Health Monitoring).
This chart also helps set my own expectations about where we are at in our technological evolution. The START - which is an incredibly exciting time. We are sitting at the “Peak of Inflated Expectations” where we can clearly see all the possibilities like a wide-eyed newborn child - giddy and filled with wonder.
(NOTE: Click on the Image to Enlarge via Forbes.com)
“In a report from Gartner (via Kurzweil) the analyst company predicted a
massive 64% compound annual growth rate for “enterprise” 3D printer
shipments through 2019, which will “require a rethinking of assembly
line and supply chain processes to exploit 3D printing”.
Samsung KNOX Recibe la Clasificación de protección más ‘Fuerte’ de Cualquier Plataforma de Seguridad en el Informe Gartner de Seguridad de Dispositivo Móvil.
Lima, Perú, 28 de abril del 2016.— Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. anunció que Samsung KNOX 2.6 recibió la clasificación de protección más “Fuerte” de cualquier plataforma de seguridad móvil en el informe de “Seguridad de Dispositivo Móvil:…