future predictors

Each day the sun rises and sets. The moon pulls the tides. Our hearts beat. Our loved ones love us back. And we share our inhales and exhales with the great organism that is our tiny planet.
But, as you watch the sun rise again tomorrow morning, think to yourself: past performance is not a predictor of future results. And then force a smile, drink another cup of coffee, and try not to look down as you walk across the soil that will eventually fill your lifeless lungs and repurpose your corpse.
—  Welcome to Night Vale - Episode 24

And as the sun sets, I place my hand upon my heart, feel that it is still beating, and remind myself: Past performance is not a predictor of future results.

[Image Description: a screenshot from Shroud of Darkness featuring Ahsoka and Anakin. They sit across from each other while a hologram of Anakin Skywalker demonstrating a lightsaber form glows between them. Superimposed over the image is text from Welcome to Nightvale: May we all remember what it was like to be so young. May we remember it factually, and not remember anything that is false or incorrect. May we all be human–beautiful, stupid, temporal, endless.]

Study: gun owners with a history of alcohol abuse are much more likely to commit crimes
Alcohol may not be the first thing that most Americans think of when they think of violent crime, but a growing body of research keeps proving that America’s favorite drug is a big contributor to crime and violence. Consider the latest evidence: A new study, by researchers at the Violence Prevention Research Program at the University of California Davis, found that alcohol may be a much better predictor of future crime, including violent acts, than whether you have a criminal record at all. The researchers looked at a sample of more than 4,000 handgun buyers in California, using data that ran from 1977 to 1991 to take a longitudinal look at criminal histories starting 15 days (the waiting period for gun purchases in the state) after they made a buy. Read more

Call me crazy, but I’ve been counting objects. I don’t write meta, but I wanted to chip in with my two cents. The best predictor for future behaviour is past behaviour, so these are my predictions for what to expect from season 4.

Now, I know very little about cinematography, so if there are rules about how to count these things, I have probably broken them. I’ve simply put down every time someone mentions, touches or in any way interacts with an object on screen. I have also included objects that are ignored by the characters but are prominent on screen because of the way they are filmed. If two people in the same scene interacts with the same object, I have noted it twice.

These visualisations show which objects appear in which episode. I also have statistics on the characters, so I am planning to make more visualisations if you like these.

When I started this meta-adventure, I had help from


Thanks a lot for helping me get started!

Edit: I’ve just checked TAB and my numbers are off on several measurements. Gngh! I’m looking into it and will get back to you!

Car the week: BMW Next 100

On its 100th birthday, BMW unveiled the Vision Next 100 concept – a vehicle incorporating many of the technologies and that the automaker believes will shape the way we drive in the coming century.

If the progress of the last century tells us anything, it’s that long-term prognostication is next to useless; could the aircraft engine-designers of Bayerische Motoren Werke circa 1916 have conceived of the streamlined 1936 328, let alone the brand-new M2? If road cars look anything like this in 30 years, we’d frankly be surprised.

So maybe don’t take the Next 100 as an predictor of future-car aesthetics. Instead, consider it a visualization of technologies and trends that seem destined to shake things up in the coming decades. With that in mind, here’s what the Next 100 says about what’s to come – good, bad and neutral.

WTNV: Three Years Later

Friendly reminder:

The anniversary episodes may as well be named
“Something Awful Happens To Carlos.”

Year One: Bleeding out in a bowling alley while his not-boyfriend breaks down in tears on-air

Year Two: Trapped in a desert hellscape as the universe essentially tells him he does not belong in Night Vale.

Year Three: Not looking good. (And that was BEFORE Kevin showed up…)

Then again, “Past performance is not a predictor of future results.“
*crosses fingers*
*crawls under desk*

Thoughts on Episode 81 - After 3327:

  • Cecil is so, so inconsiderate of his interns unless they seem to achieve a level of success similar to Dana’s
  • “Past performance is not a predictor of future results” is a phrase that crops up an awful lot
  • Nick Teller’s invisible ship is a reference to The Philadelphia Experiment! Nice!
  • Nikola Tesla was alleged to have worked on The Philadelphia Experiment, or at least his discoveries allowed it to be possible after his death
  • Nick Teller sounds an awful like Nikola Tesla