for that exact reason

Survivorship Bias

I have posted about survivorship bias and how it affects your career choices: how a Hollywood actor giving the classic “follow your dreams and never give up” line is bad advice and is pure survivorship bias at work.

When I read up on the wikipedia page, I encountered an interesting story:

During WWII the US  Air Force wanted to minimize bomber losses to enemy fire. The Center for Naval Analyses ran a research on where bombers tend to get hit with the explicit aim of enforcing the parts of the airframe that is most likely to receive incoming fire. This is what they came up with:


So, they said: the red dots are where bombers are most likely to be hit, so put some more armor on those parts to make the bombers more resilient. That looked like a logical conclusion, until Abraham Wald - a mathematician - started asking questions: 

- how did you obtain that data?
- well, we looked at every bomber returning from a raid, marked the damages on the airframe on a sheet and collected the sheets from all allied air bases over months. What you see is the result of hundreds of those sheets.
- and your conclusion?
- well, the red dots are where the bombers were hit. So let’s enforce those parts because they are most exposed to enemy fire. 
- no. the red dots are where a bomber can take a hit and return. The bombers that took a hit to the ailerons, the engines or the cockpit never made it home. That’s why they are absent in your data. The blank spots are exactly where you have to enforce the airframe, so those bombers can return.

This is survivorship bias. You only see a subset of the outcomes. The ones that made it far enough to be visible. Look out for absence of data. Sometimes they tell a story of their own.

BTW: You can see the result of this research today. This is the exact reason the A-10 has the pilot sitting in a titanium armor bathtub and has it’s engines placed high and shielded.

Sean Bean hiking up to the Lord of the Rings sets bc he’s afraid of helicopters is even funnier when you hear that Viggo Mortensen did the exact same thing, except Viggo’s reason for hiking to the sets was bc he wanted to be authentically travel-worn

Like literally you have Boromir doing this pretty cool thing bc he’s scared to death of the alternative while Aragorn just does it for The Aesthetic™

hey please don’t go around telling people “i KNEW something was off about them!” when people are outed as abusers. cause that’s just furthering the idea that you should always be able to tell if someones abusive.

the bottom line is sometimes you really can’t tell. and you’re not a terrible person for not noticing. keep the blame on the abuser please, not the fans, not the friends. this is not the time to earn Superiority Points.

The whole mess about difficulty modes in video games is so weird to me, because I’ve seen it before. The tabletop roleplaying hobby went through exactly the same thing decades earlier.

I remember the flamewars about how games where you didn’t die instantly at zero hit points were coddling unskilled players and bringing about the downfall of “real” gaming.

I remember it being seriously debated whether making games more mathematically accessible was worth the potential loss of granularity - and, indeed, whether people who were bad at math “deserved” to play at all!

Heck, even a lot of reasoning was word-for-word identical. Folks used to argue with a straight face that of course your new character should start at level 1 when your old character died, no matter what the party’s average level was, because you had to earn the right to enjoy the game “properly” by slogging through multiple sessions with a character who’s bad at everything first.

It’s that noxious combination of “all games should be difficult to play because I’ve invested my entire identity in having mastered that difficulty” and “I want games that don’t cater to the exact mode of play that I prefer to fail, and I want the exact things that I dislike about them to be the reason that they fail“ - well, it’s awful familiar, is what I’m saying.

I won’t say that the tabletop roleplaying hobby ever entirely got over it - the “games that don’t cater exactly to me should fail” attitude still strongly informs the “Edition Warrior” mindset in D&D circles, for example - but the broader community basically came to a consensus that people who think like this are assholes decades ago, so watching video games describe the same trajectory evokes a strange mix of nostalgia and exasperation.

DOCTOR DREAMY | PT.1

pt1 | pt2 | (ongoing)

pairing: jimin x reader

genre: fluff, slight angst, eventual smut + expecting parents au

word count: 4,724

request: sperm donor ex-boyfriend jimin 

description: Okay, maybe in hindsight asking your ex-boyfriend, who you never really got over, to be your sperm-donor wasn’t the brightest of ideas.

cr.


“I want to have your baby,” is a particular string of words that is only considered acceptable in a certain number of situations.

Maybe between two lovers getting lost in the moment of their heightened feelings, and somehow the words just slip — that’s probably the most common occurrence of the phrase. Or maybe it’s a night out, alcohol in your system, and the words just sort of spill past your lips to the most ridiculously attractive stranger you’ve ever seen before you can even think to stop them. Even that, can still be considered at least borderline passable usage of the phrase. Hell, even the instance of a teenage girl proclaiming her love for her favorite celebrity with the heavy proclamation is still considered normal for the most part.

These, along with a few far-fetched others, were the only situations you could think of that allowed for the usage of those six words to be passable, yet, here you were, uttering that exact phrase, when you were in absolutely none of them. You weren’t getting caught up in the moment with lust-glazed eyes, you weren’t drunk and spewing nonsense at a bar to some guy, and you most certainly weren’t some star struck teenage girl staring up at her celebrity crush’s poster.

No, you were none of those things.

Instead, you were sitting across from your ex-boyfriend telling him that you wanted to have his baby… Yeah, totally passable usage of the phrase, right?

Keep reading

You’ve recently joined a cult surrounding a goat. The goat isn’t the prophet, the Devil, or anything else extraordinary. It’s just a simple goat, and you only joined to find out what the cult is preaching in the first place. You later discover the other members joined for the same exact reason.

jumping on the “humans are space orcs” bandwagon, I’m just imagining what our food must look like to an outsider

like imagine trying to explain that we eat spoiled food. like, sometimes it grows bacteria on accident and we dislike it, but sometimes we deliberately expose it to bacteria so the exact same reaction can happen but for some reason this time we’re okay with it and call it stuff like “wine” and “cheese” and “yogurt”

we eat capsaicin, a natural pesticide and fungicide. and we think adverse reactions to it are so funny that we make videos that are just people eating extremely hot things.

we eat halite, a literal fucking rock, with such frequency that a dish is not considered properly seasoned without it.

turducken exists

On Oak’s Forced Leave

Hi friends. I know we’re all super pissed about Oak being asked to leave Great Comet to make room for Mandy Patinkin (I am too. Like I was looking forward to seeing him for months, and now I can’t) but I’m seeing a lot of posts on here that include some info that is just wrong, and wanted to clarify them. So here.

1.) Oak being dismissed had nothing to do with race. Let me explain, because I know that it 100% looks like it does, but it really doesn’t. Oak, while having a lot of fans in the Broadway community, is a total unknown outside of it. Mandy Patinkin is famous in film, television, and theatre (I mean, he was Inigo Montoya). While they are replacing a black actor with a white actor, that’s immaterial. What they’re really doing is replacing someone who won’t sell tickets (at least, extra tickets) with a celebrity who will (at premium prices). Is that better? Not really. But it’s an important distinction that a lot of people haven’t been making. 

2.) He did not have “a week and a half” to sell tickets. I keep seeing this point, and it’s confused me greatly. Oak has been announced to take over Pierre since February. That was about five months ago. Any pre-sale that was going to happen would’ve already happened by now, and obviously same day sales weren’t good. They were expecting Oak to be a draw, but he wasn’t. Not Oak’s fault, but it’s just a fact. 

3.) They’re not blaming Oak for not selling tickets. A continuation of the second point, no one is putting the success of the show on Oak’s shoulders (if anything, they’re putting it on Ingrid’s). However, they found someone who could make the show more successful, and he happens to be taking over Oak’s role. This does not mean that Oak was unsatisfactory in any way, shape, or form, and no one is trying to imply that. 

4.) This is not the first time Great Comet has done this. Brittain Ashford was asked to go on vacation to make room for Ingrid Michaelson, for the exact same reason that Oak is ending his run early, and no one batted an eyelash. The only difference is that Brittain is coming back when Ingrid leaves, while most people in the business are pretty sure they have another celebrity lined up for Pierre, hence Mandy only performing for three weeks. 

5.) He’s still getting paid. Just like Brittain, Oak is going to be fully compensated for the time he’s off. That doesn’t make things better, but please don’t think they’re just throwing him out on the street or something.  

6.) What About Denée, Amber, Nick, Blaine, Azudi, Shoba, Paul, Summaya, Lulu, Andrew, Brandt, and Heath? If you’re wondering who those people are, they’re the other PoC in the cast of Great Comet, which has won multiple awards for its commitment to diversity this season. To further break those numbers down: four of them (Denée, Amber, Nick, and Paul) are in lead/supporting roles (out of a total of ten), one of which, Natasha, is the absolute archetype of “white Russian princess.” Not to mention that one of Natasha’s understudies, Shoba Narayan, is literally the only actress of Indian descent (that I know of) on Broadway right now. The Comet team has gone to great lengths to make their show as diverse as possible (they literally have their swings learn both “male” and “female” roles, and you can see same-sex couples at multiple points during the show, and it has a largely female creative team), and frankly it’s a little bit insulting to see people acting like Great Comet only casts PoC “when it’s convenient for them.” 

7.) It was not Dave Malloy, Mandy Patinkin, or Rachel Chavkin’s fault this happened. I’ve seen people attacking Dave and Rachel for allowing Oak to be replaced, and Mandy himself for replacing him. Not okay. If you want to blame anyone, blame the producers. Dave and Rachel have literally no say beyond: “Yeah. We’d love Mandy to be in it. Not sure when, though.” and Mandy just gave them the times he was free between shooting the next season of Homeland, and it happened to be the last three weeks of Oak’s run. 

8.) This is all about making money. Broadway shows aren’t cheap to run in general, but a show like Comet is an absolute beast. 30+ cast members, a huge band, a giant crew, etc. Their weekly running costs are probably somewhere in the range of 700k-800k a week. Since Josh left, they’ve been making ~900k a week, which is fine, if they want to be in debt for the next ten years. Comet had a huge amount of money put into it, and the people running it are definitely feeling pressure from investors to pay it back. This means they have to stick a celeb in every once in a while. 

9.) I still don’t think it’s okay. This all being said, I think it was an absolutely shitty move on the producers’ part (they could’ve handled it a lot better) and am livid. (Though, I do have to admit I love Mandy Patinkin. I just wish he came at a different time.)  But while I’m angry, I think it’s important not to make this into something it’s not. 

Okay. That’s all. 

Nothing More [ I ]

Genre [Rating] : Angst

Length: 6.8k

Pairing: Baekhyun x Reader

Summary: Watching the man you love love someone else was the most painful feeling in the world.

Part Two: Part Three: x   Part Four: x  Alternate Ending: x

Originally posted by progamerbyun

The rain fell just loud enough for you to hear, the skies a beautiful but somber grey and the world feeling otherwise silent. The birds weren’t chirping. The neighborhood seemed empty. It was just you. You and your empty apartment and your thoughts. The all consuming thoughts that made the silence seem so loud. His voice just kept replaying in your head, like the soundtrack to the otherwise quiet moment.

“I think she’s the one.”

Keep reading

10

Super Lovers 2 
#5 black and white

@sixpenceee This is a story for you, this literally just happened to me about an hour ago.

I got home from work today and I was singing in the bathroom while I was taking off my makeup. My boyfriend and I record covers of songs and I started to hear music from the living room so I stopped singing to listen. I was hearing a cover we did of Nutshell by Alice in Chains and I thought my voice sounded really good in this particular recording so after a few seconds when my boyfriend walked into the bathroom I asked him which specific audio he played because I liked it.

He looked at me really confused and asked “What do you mean?” I asked him again and he still looked baffled and said slowly “I was playing guitar… I could hear you singing. You sounded really good.” I just stared at him, slowly starting to realize what just transpired.

I thought my boyfriend was playing a recording because I could hear my own voice, or something like it. He thought I was singing from the bathroom for the same exact reason except I wasn’t singing. I don’t know who or what was. I am having a hard time wrapping my head around this, although I am not particularly surprised as weird things seem to gravitate towards me.

in the end, it mattered.

So, I… was not expecting to open up the news tonight and feel like I’d been kicked in the stomach. I’d barely even thought about Linkin Park in years. They were my brief, embarrassing nu-metal mallgoth phase. They were everyone’s brief, embarrassing nu-metal mallgoth phase. Then they were the band even nu-metal posers made fun of. By that point 15-year-old me had plunged down the rabbit hole and discovered Rammstein, and the Smiths, and the Sisters of Mercy, and KMFDM, and I had so much awesome music to wallow in that I barely had time to feel self-conscious that I’d never really stopped loving Hybrid Theory. (Although I did, a little, because I was 15 and nothing was too stupid to feel self-conscious about.)

But holy fuck did I love that album. “Crawling” is the first music video I have any actual memory of seeing on TV. Linkin Park was the first rock concert I ever went to. (And fuck you, they were awesome.) I loved it for the exact reasons my entire age cohort found it embarrassing as soon as we were out of middle school. It’s a primal scream of rage and anguish, artfully bottled up and beautified, that manages to articulate a lot of the nuances of how people hurt each other and what it’s like to be hurt so badly you can barely hang on. Which means it had its finger squarely on the pulse of what it’s like to be 14. Stuck in a rat cage with a few hundred other rats, all of you hopped up to the gills on hormones, clumsily figuring out all the ways people can hurt each other, how and when to protect yourself, how to judge others’ behavior. And because people learning how to judge get awfully enthusiastic about it and nobody likes the primal anguish or the pants-on-head stupidity of their 14-year-old self, it didn’t take long for us to start finding Linkin Park embarrassing. Their angst is utterly sincere, and sincerity is uncomfortable. Especially when it reminds you of the utterly sincere, solipsistic, overblown, ridiculous angst over trivial shit that your adolescent hormones were pumping through your veins in middle school. Getting over yourself is healthy.

Coming back to listen when I’m pushing thirty, though, nothing on Hybrid Theory makes me think about my mid-teens melodrama. Some of it makes me think about friendships and relationships that turned into the kind of fucked-up shit that makes me want to grab my past self and shout “run while you can.” But most of it–speaking as a grown-ass adult here–most of it makes me think “holy shit, I want to find whoever did that to this kid and kick their ass six ways from Sunday.” It is so fucking unbelievably obvious in retrospect that none of the shit Chester Bennington is screaming about is something you just get over once you’ve grown up a little and escaped the shitheads you went to high school with.

Transmuting pain into art is a natural, almost universal impulse; doing it well is hard. Getting close enough to grab the beating heart of it, pulling it out to dissect it, ruthlessly rearranging it into something with structure and clarity, stepping back far enough to judge what you’ve made… the strange, disconcerting realization that you’ve turned it into something beautiful. Something that will appeal to other people, make them relate it back to their own pain even if it’s not the same. (Something vulnerable that can be criticized and judged and sneered at.) Maybe at first it’s for your own benefit, help you process and understand it, let out a bit of that primal scream… but let me tell you, the first time someone says “thank you” or “I needed this” or “you articulated what I couldn’t” or “this got me through a dark place”… that doesn’t just make it worth it, it humbles the shit out of you. And it makes you want to keep doing it forever. It turns the pain into shared understanding and an offer of comfort.

Unfortunately, it doesn’t make the pain go away.

Chester Bennington was really fucking good at transmuting his pain into art and offering it up with utter sincerity.

So RIP, dude. I don’t know the details of what you were going through, but you gave the world a pretty good glimpse of the broad outlines. And that glimpse got a lot of kids through adolescence, my dumb ass included; I can only imagine what it did for people who were going through the same stuff as you. Life may not be some fairy tale where turning your demons into art is always enough to save you from them, but I wish you’d made it. You saved a lot of other people. Whatever peace eluded you here, you deserve to find on the other side.

johnny said jaehyun is rly bad at taking in compliments and flush in embarrassment so he always teases jaehyun by praising him a lot. he said its cute to see jaehyun like that and jaehyun’s ears always turns red when he’s shy

I wanna talk about this interview...

A lot of people have been passing this image around the internet and laughing about how its yet another example about how much Harrison gives no fucks about Star Wars, and isn’t his honesty hilarious, and blah blah…

But did anyone actually watch this interview?

Because…I honestly loved this moment so much for the exact opposite reason. 

Yes, Harrison gives this joke and everyone laughs at his bluntness. But then IMMEDIATELY afterward he clarifies that he isn’t really looking forward to watching the Han Solo movie because he thinks it will be strange to watch someone else be Han. 

Everything about the rest of that interview - his statements, his tone - make it clear that the reason why he isn’t looking forward to the Han Solo movie is because HE is Han Solo and he is going to have a hard time passing along that mantle to someone else. 

It’s not that he doesn’t care. 

It’s the opposite. 

Harrison Ford has made a real effort in these past couple of years to reverse the idea that he hates Star Wars. He was so unbelievably happy and gracious at the Celebration panel this year. He’s been outspoken about how he is happy to be a part of it and how grateful he is to George Lucas and the fans. He has acknowledged that Star Wars was the catalyst for his entire movie career and credited the fact that he is still working today to the fans.

And he seems sincere. 

I don’t know why people want to hold on so desperately to the image of resentful Harrison Ford. 

Because he hasn’t existed for a long time. 

Joseph is not a bad person

Yeah, I said it, the thing that so many people in this fandom are not happy to admit. Joseph is not a bad person, not by a long shot. Hell, there are far more issues with Robert than there are with Joseph - the only real moral difference between the two is that Robert gets a happy ending, and Joseph does not. That is literally it.

“But Joseph cheated-” Yes, yes he did. Joseph cheated on Mary with Robert, and he cheats on Mary with the MC. However, there is clearly a lot more to the Joseph/Robert story than we know, so there’s nothing that we can glean from it other than speculation. Somehow, a lot of people like to speculate that Joseph is the bad person because…Robert said so? Why on Earth would we believe one person? Even Mary doesn’t say her husband is a bad man, and she has every right to do so as his wife. Robert is not reliable. Then, when Joseph cheats on Mary with the MC, the two of them are actively about to get a divorce.

That’s it. Those three things, the two instances of cheating and Robert saying that Joseph isn’t a good person is literally all we have to say that Joseph is a bad person. That is it. The cult ending is still not in the game, and literally everything else is entirely speculation. There is no other evidence saying Joseph is a bad person.

“He lost track of his kids-” At a park, in the morning, in a safe neighborhood. Yeah sure it’s a little squiffy, but if we’re going to get on Joseph’s case for that then we should also be yelling at Mary for not only losing track of Crish, but completely disregarding her husband’s concern for the toddler.

Joseph actively gets upset if you lie on his route, Joseph actively tries his best to make sure that his youth party goes well, that his children are happy. He encourages his children’s weird behaviors and appears to have a good understanding of his autistic son as well. He spends time to create a man cave for him and the MC to relax and joke in, he supports Damien and all the other dads despite their gender and sexual alignment. He actively tries to help Hugo with Ernest and doesn’t lose his temper at the clearly troubled kid. There is so much good to this man, and this fandom is reducing him to an abusive manipulator based on no evidence other than “Robert said so”. The devs themselves have said before that you can’t take everything in this game at face value, and Robert is friends with Mary. I go into this more on another one of my posts, but Robert only ever sees Mary upset, so he only ever hears that Joseph is at fault. Is it so hard to imagine that maybe Robert is over reacting because he’s being over defensive of his friend? Is it really?

And as for Mary - again, Mary never says her husband is a bad man and, honestly, she’s more at fault for the shitty place their marriage is in than Joseph. That might be a touchy subject for some, but I’m serious. Mary goes out drinking most nights, she flirts with almost every man she meets, staying out until God knows when having ‘fun’ with Robert. Neil and Robert may insist that she isn’t cheating, but uh, flirting is still cheating. It is still 100% cheating on your partner to go out and flirt endlessly with another person. It is not okay, and will never be okay. She also lowkey makes fun of his religion, is obviously super flippant about caring for her children (she let her kids watch an R rated movie, and didn’t seem to care one lick about Crish), and is incredibly passive aggressive. Hell, at some points in the game, she is just aggressive towards the MC and Robert has to tell her to back off.

Mary is not a bad person, nor is Robert, but that’s kind of my point. None of these people are bad people, but somehow this fandom has turned Mary and Robert into pure cinnamon rolls and Joseph into a literal demon because…I don’t know. I really don’t know. There’s even a comic going around that keeps getting reblogged with tags like “yeah, fuck Joseph!” “Joseph is so cruel to Mary” “I wish Robert and Mary would get together and leave Joseph”. These tags are incredibly upsetting because of how short minded these people are. The comic has Mary coming home late at night with Robert practically shouting a song at the top of their lungs. People somehow see this as harmless fun and Joseph is totally just ruining it by being a bad husband…But seriously?

First of all, walking around incredibly drunk and screaming songs in the middle of the night is public indecency and you could have the cops called on you for disturbing the peace. Would you be happy if your drunk neighbor woke you up at night? What if you had a baby, like Craig?

And, secondly…How on Earth is Joseph the bad one in the situation for ‘stopping their fun’? Humor me for just a second if you’re having trouble understanding me. For just one second, imagine Mary is a man. We’ll say his name is Marty. Marty has a wife named Josephine. Marty goes out most nights to get incredibly drunk with his female friend, Robin. Josephine knows and has seen how Marty gets when he’s drunk, she knows how Marty flirts with the girls at the bar, sitting next to them, wrapping his arm around them, getting them to buy him drinks with a wink and a smile. Josephine has to put the four kids to bed each night - the autistic one, the hyper ones, and the toddler. Josephine waits up for her husband to come home, nervous for her safety, and nervous that…What if tonight was the night she brought another woman home? Or, came back in the morning smelling of another woman’s perfume? Then, she hears the tell tale singing of Marty and Robin on the way home, followed shortly after by the Crish’s cry and a light across the street turning on…

Does any of that sound even remotely okay? Could you imagine if the situation where truly reversed like that, with a husband getting hopelessly drunk most nights, flirting with women, and coming home late? Do you still think that he is totally at fault for being angry that his wife came home drunk? Honestly, there is no difference between the people telling Joseph to go fuck himself for ruining his wife’s ‘fun’ and the men I’ve seen my father hang around with joking about how my own mother was his ‘ball and chain’ for the exact same reason. There is a good reason my mom and dad are not together anymore.

Mary is clearly an alcoholic. Even if she’s not an angry drunk, I’ve known plenty of people and read plenty of stories of children who were raised with drunk parents. You usually only hear about the father, so again if you’re having trouble understanding why Mary’s alcoholism is an issue then imagine she’s Marty. Imagine Marty as a father who is constantly drunk or with a drink in hand, a father who accidentally lets you watch movies that you know you shouldn’t watch, a father who just waves you away and ignores you, a father who disappears every night…Why is mommy the only one home at night? Why are they fighting? Is it your fault?

That got a little heavy, but at this point I just want this to stop. I am so tired of going into the Joseph tag and finding nothing but hate post after hate post after hate post. I am so tired of seeing posts blaming Joseph for Mary’s alcoholism and Robert’s…Issues when we all know damn well that can’t possibly be the reason. Robert was a terrible person in his past and he’s upset about it, and we really don’t know what’s going on with Mary. We don’t, sans speculation. End of story. There is no way we can reliably blame Joseph for everything, and it’s even getting to the point where the anti-Joseph posts are actually becoming abusive to Joseph using Mary AND Robert as the assailants.

tl;dr: Joseph is not a bad man, Mary and Robert are not flawless, the way Mary acts is seriously problematic, and some of stuff you guys are posting is actually kinda hurtful. Can we reel a back a little?