Skye has been living out of her van since she left the foster care system and for the past few years she’s been investigating strange phenomena the government covers up. Recently, she heard about a blue box, a telephone booth, and a woman that seem to show up in a series of odd and important events throughout time. She goes looking for her, driving to places that experience strange events or where history is being made. When she finally finds her, a slim young British woman who refers to herself as The Doctor, she is surprised but after their first adventure-The Doctor was there to relocate a race of sentient plants that she had convinced to not take over Earth but there were a few dissenters- not disappointed. When she asks Skye to join her in the TARDIS, smiling sweetly with twigs in her hair, Skye doesn’t hesitate to say yes.
GOP presidential candidate Donald Trump’s victory in South Carolina, his expected victory Tuesday in Nevada, his poll dominance in the upcoming states, and the increasing unlikelihood of an “anybody but Trump” bandwagon coalescing fast enough around another candidate is causing a lot of pre-nomination autopsies about what in the world happened…
So what’s going on? I have a theory, but it’s very speculative and I will welcome pushback from actual experts in campaign politics.
Basically, I think the fault lies with political scientists.
To explain this, I need to start with pitch framing in baseball. Last month Fangraph’s Jeff Sullivan wrote something interesting about the waning ability of major league catchers to “frame” pitches — i.e., make a ball look like a strike to home plate umpires. In short, over the past year or so catchers who were historically skilled at pitch framing stopped having consistent success at it. What’s puzzling about this is that over the past decade, new data about the location of pitched balls made it easier for teams to use catchers who were excellent pitch framers.
So what happened? Sullivan’s hypothesis is that because of all the analysis of this phenomenon, umpires are now cognizant of pitch framing. They responded to the new data by becoming more suspicious of catchers who are really good at it:
Pitch-framing isn’t just some nerd interest. They talk about it on television broadcasts. They talk about it on the MLB Network, and they write about it on the MLB website. It’s still nothousehold information, like saves or RBI, but it’s known in the industry, and along with that comes knowledge of who’s supposedly good at it. …
It’s a really extraordinary situation. Pitch-framing research uncovered an area where teams could gain or lose rather significant value. Some teams acted on that, and some teams have benefited, but the unusual thing about this is it’s related only somewhat to actual on-field talent. The rest is in the hands of the umpires, and at some point, umpires were going to catch wind of what was taking place. And then they could have a response, because umpires don’t want to be manipulated, not intentionally and not for a team’s direct gain.
So, in other words, analysts noticed a real thing in baseball, analyzed it, and quantified it — but because the umpires care about this stuff as well, they internalized this analysis and changed the way they called the game, thereby obviating the analysis to some degree.
What does this have to do with Trump? Let me suggest the following hypothesis. For the past few years, political scientists and pollsters have developed a number of explanations, indicators and theories for why some candidates do well and others don’t. The Party Decides, for example, has been the primary theory driving how political analysts have thought about presidential campaigns. It seemed to explain nomination fights of the recent past quite well.
So why has it been proved wrong? My hypothesis is that GOP decision-makers also read the same analyses and concluded that they did not need to do anything to stop Trump. Sure, his poll numbers stayed robust even after he kept saying racist and insulting things, but there were good auxiliary hypotheses to explain why that was the case. They kept reading analysis after analysis in 2015 about how Donald Trump had little chance of winning the GOP nomination. They read smart take after smart take telling them that Trump didn’t have a chance. Even as the media covered Trump, even as late as the South Carolina debate, pundits were also talking about how his latest transgressive comment would doom his chances.
So GOP party leaders didn’t take any action. Except that the reason smart analysts believed Trump had no chance was because they thought GOP leaders would eventually take action…
Just as sabermetrics led to a change in how umpires called the game, political science led to a change in how party elites intervened in the campaign. Because the smart people said he had no chance, they presumed that they did not have to do anything. And now it’s too late.
Let me be very clear at this point: This is just a theory and I have almost no data to support it. This is an untested hypothesis. Like most of my analysis of the 2016 election cycle, it’s probably, mostly wrong.
But I wonder: Just how much of Trump’s rise came about because the people who could have stopped him read analyses asserting that he had no chance of winning? How much did political scientists refute their own hypotheses?
Very interesting. I’m posting this in part as a self-criticism, as I’ve been one of the people riding the “Trump won’t win because the Republican Party won’t let him” train. Most traditional logic is out the window for this election and Trump is currently on the mathematical course to winning the nomination, so who knows.
[Reformatted so that the italics are his emphasis, the bolding is mine.]
“Good is not a thing you are it’s a thing you do.”
In the future of the MCU I would love to see Kamala Khan get her own movie or television show. Given how we are getting Inhumans in AoS, an Inhumans movie, and a Captain Marvel movie there will be a perfect opportunity to introduce Ms. Marvel to the MCU. Kamala is very real teenager who is trying to fight crime, keep her new superheroine identity a secret, figure out how her religion and traditions fit with her life as an American teen, and keep up with school, friends, and fanfiction. She’s funny, brave, and enthusiastic (she reacts to meeting Wolverine the way many of us would!) and would be a breath of fresh air in the MCU with the youth, optimism, and diversity she would bring with her story.
*She’s my current faceclaim but I’d love for Marvel to cast an up and coming actual teen actress in the show/film
Instead of being passed from foster home to foster home young 0-8-4 Skye was adopted by Shield agents Nick Fury and Phil Coulson. Skye grows up in a stable and loving home and while their jobs mean they sometimes have to be apart they always make time for each other.
Daisy is majoring in computer programming and works part time in IT to pay for her off-campus housing with her friend Joey. Jemma is double majoring in chemistry and biology and spends most of her time in the library or the lab. They both meet in their college Geek Club and end up teaming up to make their costumes for the big Comic Convention in town. Jemma dresses as Doctor Who and Daisy as Rey and the two work out a buddy system to see the whole convention. Jemma has been to many before with her friend Fitz but Daisy has only slipped in past the security a couple times when she snuck off during the summer at her last foster parents house so she wants to see everything. The crowd nearly separates them until Daisy takes Jemma’s hand- they hold hands until tey realize at the end of they day they are still holding hands as they wait for the subway back to campus and instead o letting go Jemma only squeezes harder. Next year they’re going to make a couple’s cosplay.
Nick Fury is listening to the defunct SHIELD distress signal channel and using it to find agents left in the cold after the fall of SHIELD. While he doesn’t always swoop in like a guardian angel like he did for FitzSimmons many agents find themselves suddenly given passports, money, rescued from undercover ops, or released from international prisons without an explanation. He feels responsible for them because he was in charge when everything went to hell and he brought many of them or placed in them in the positions they are in and he still believes in SHIELDs founding goal of protection.⌋