earnings

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Will Q2 earnings and guidance throw the markets a life raft?

Risk off themes fueled by geo-political and economic challenges have allowed for an overlay of caution for equity markets. For what seems to be an eternity, investors have been struggling to price in the most likely outcome of the Greek financial crisis. More recently the sharp Chinese equity market correction has emerged to share the unflattering spotlight. Crude oil has felt the contagious impact of the unwillingness of investors to take a constructive stand on the market. Additional themes that will garner a great deal of attention in the near term are the anticipated announcement by the IMF of an alternative reserve currency this fall and the Iranian nuclear talks. There is suddenly no shortage of themes that appear to be speaking to caution.

All the themes that have dominated recent trading narratives will likely take a back to seat to our upcoming earnings season. AA reports Q2 results on Thursday. Though AA is no longer the bellwether it once was and certainly not a darling in the eyes of institutional investors, AA does have a global perspective that is increasingly germane when one looks to take the global economic temperature – geopolitics aside.

On  a year-to-date basis AA has lost 30.15% as of yesterday’s closing price. Clearly expectations for the metals space has been dramatically less than compelling. That difficult first half speaks directly to global industrial and consumer demand; from soda cans and autos to aircraft. We all know that demand has been weak. Our expansion has hit a rough patch in the first half of 2015. The EU has a long list of challenges – not the least of which is near zero growth and anemic demand. China’s formerly explosive economic expansion has clearly decelerated dramatically.

As with all earnings reports, investors look at quarterly results but also very keenly at forward looking guidance. In the case of AA that guidance will speak volumes. Does AA expect to see an uptick in demand – anywhere? Will there be any adjustments to earnings expectations? From the looks of things, AA will likely speak to themes we are all too familiar with; tepid demand, weak economic performance and pressure on profitability but strength in the aircraft manufacturing sector and robust demand for automobiles. In that case, even if Q2 results are better than consensus expectations, don’t look for markets to be thrown a flotation device. We may just have to muscle our way through this season of discontent.

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anonymous asked:

how do you afford all your clothes? :o

I use I-Say. It’s a website that gives you Paypal Gift Cards for filling out surveys hehe :) really nice tbh! i do surveys when im bored and i have already received a decent amount of gift cards so yay :)

p.s. make sure to verify your email, it’s really important and you’ll get extra points for it!