deduction!!!

When 16 year old John Paul Getty III was kidnapped in 1973, his billionaire grandfather refused to pay $17 million ransom. After the kidnappers mailed Getty’s ear to a newspaper, his grandfather only agreed to pay $2.2 million because that was the maximum amount that was tax deductible.

He loaned an additional $700,000 to his son (the kidnapped kid’s father) under the conditions that he would repay him with 4% interest. Talk about an awesome grandpa, right?

The Toad Question

Part 1 | Part II | Part III

It was late, really late. Neville knew he shouldn’t have stayed until dark in the greenhouses, but he just couldn’t stop planting the Asphodel until there was enough for Professor Sprout’s next class with the first years. 

The sound of the door opening startled him and he quickly realized he had been caught. Either Filch or Sprout had seen the greenhouse’s lights on and had come to find him and deduct house points. 

“Sorry,” he called as he stood up from the ground, only to be startled again. It wasn’t Sprout, and it definitely wasn’t Filch. Pansy Parkinson was once again, a few feet from him. 

“Is that all you know how to say?” she spoke, her voice filling the empty space around them. 

Neville didn’t know what to answer, but he didn’t have to, because Pansy was already moving closer, leaning over the working table that separated them and placing a small, familiar toad in the middle. “I think he’s sick. I was on my way to the Hospital wing when I saw these lights were on. I figured you should know what’s wrong with him.”

Her words weren’t kind, but they weren’t angry either and Neville looked up at her and noticed that her eyes were glassy. She stared right back, her breathing too fast for someone who was simply standing, hands holding onto the table.

She gulped. 

Neville clicked into action and got a closer look at Juniper. The small animal looked tiny in the big wooden table, and his eyes were closed. He seemed to be breathing, but very slow and deeply. Neville tried to remember if anything like this had ever happened to Trevor. 

“Does he usually escape? Like, to go outside?” Neville asked and then cleared his throat. 

“Yes,” she shrugged like it was obvious. “But he always comes back. He’s very smart.”

Neville thought that might be a jab at how not smart his own toad seemed, but she didn’t appear to be mocking him, and her eyes were trained on her pet.

Neville poked and pet the toad all over his head, back, and legs, trying to get a reaction out of him. Although  not very enthusiastic, he responded normally and even jumped twice when Neville poked his legs. 

“He’s usually not this still,” Pansy’s voice was soft and concerned, and Neville felt a small pang of pity. Thankfully, he would be able to give her some good news, even if he didn’t quite know how to explain them to her. 

He scratched his head. “Well, I think he’ll be alright. He probably just needs some rest.”

Pansy frowned. “From what?”

Neville was momentarily distracted with the way her delicate eyebrows drew together.  

“It’s spring,” he said with a shrug. “During this time male toads usually spend a lot of time… Um, finding mates.” Neville was sure that his ears were completely red as he tried not to look directly at her, occupying himself with petting Juniper again.

A small giggle threw him off, and if Neville hadn’t seen with his own eyes that it was Pansy who was starting to laugh, he would have never believed it. She covered her mouth with her hand and threw her head back in laughter. Neville couldn’t help but think that the lines that formed next to her eyes made her look beautiful, and he allowed himself to chuckle a bit.

Pansy’s laughter started to fade and she quickly wiped her eyes with a finger. “Are you sure that’s all?” Her voice was still tinted with mirth.

“I’m not a healer.” Neville shrugged. “But every spring Trevor looks very tired just like this. It worried me at first but it turns out it’s normal. Just make sure he has plenty of water available.”

She nodded and picked up Juniper from the table, a relieved smile on her face. Pansy’s nails were now pink and contrasted nicely with Juniper’s skin. The fact that she was calm made Neville feel secure, and even a bit confident, so he assumed it would be safe to ask her his question. 

“Why do you have a toad?" 

Pansy raised her eyes slowly from the toad in her hands and Neville’s heart jumped in fear. Her face was back to the cold indifference he usually knew her for, her eyes even narrowed in a disgusted scowl. 

"That’s none of your business, Longbottom,” she spat, and without another word, she spun around and left. 

Neville was left with a feeling that he wouldn’t normally associate with Pansy Parkinson. He would have guessed anger, humiliation, or fear.  

But never sadness.

  • Sherlock: Can I borrow a pen?
  • Anderson: I don't know, can you?
  • Sherlock: Yes, and I might add that colloquial irregularities occur frequently in any language, and since you and the rest of our present company perfectly understood my intended meaning, being particular about the distinction between 'can' and 'may' is purely pedantic and arguably pretensious.
2

Trumpcare would make deductibles rise by thousands, breaking Trump pledge for lower costs

  • The Republican health care bill has had its fair share of bad news over the past week, with dozens of House Republicans balking at the legislation, and putting the ACA repeal’s future in serious jeopardy.
  • But the outlook for the bill’s success dimmed even further on Wednesday, when a new Kaiser Family Foundation analysis showed the GOP’s proposed bill — the American Health Care Act — would cause deductibles in a typical health care plan to rise by more than $1,500.
  • The finding would break a fundamental promise Trump made to Americans, telling them his plan — which he continues to back 100% — would bring “lower numbers” and “much lower deductibles.” Read more (3/22/17 11:41 AM)

That one time Holmes stared at Watson’s face and eyes from across the room then gave a 395 word description of what Watson’s exact thoughts were in that moment based on the sparkling of his eyes and the quivering of his lips and interrupted when he noticed Watson touching his old wound and thinking about the senseless horrors of war

Is Sherlock Watson good enough for you?

I just realized that in this godforsaken scene:

When Sherlock says “I think it could work”

He’s saying I think the name Sherlock Watson could work”

And then John, still laughing, realizes what he just heard and does a sort of puzzled look back up at Sherlock:

And Sherlock just:

And in conclusion, we’re not exactly looking at an aborted declaration of love.

8

Poor reactions to Sherlock’s writings

And one more:

Eye Accessing Cues

The EAC model is very useful in the world that is lie-detection. EAC stands for Eye Accessing Cues, this is when one can see what someone thinks about, just by looking at their eyes.

This is the model:

  • When someone looks upwards to the left they remember an image, however, up to the right they construct an image.
  • If they look in a horizontal line to the left, they remember a sound, if they do this but the right they construct a sound.
  • Down to the left, they have an internal dialogue and down to the right, they experience a kinesthetic feeling (can also be smell and taste).

Something many seem to believe is that this is a very safe method, it is not extremely reliable. It requires some control questions.


Control questions are any questions that are like these:

  • Did your breakfast look tasty this morning? (To remember an image - up and to the left)
  • How do you think it would sound if your favourite band would play at a concert near you? (Constructing a sound - horizontally to the right)
  • How would you feel if you happened to hurt your best friend? (Emotion - downwards to the right)
  • How would you articulate a speech at your best friend’s wedding? (Inner dialogue - Down to the left)

When you ask the control questions it should be in an atmosphere that’s calm and comfortable, otherwise, the person will probably stare into your eyes or just look away. Don’t tell them that you’re going to ask them control question. Try this model and see that it’s fun.

This does not apply to every person, but if you ask the control questions and observe the eyes, you know if they do follow it. One thing to add is that left-dominant people seem to do the opposite of what I’ve explained.


Lying

Now if you want to see if someone is lying with this method make sure they follow this model. If they construct an image or sound when they should remember an image or sound, then this could point to a lie. If they say something like “It felt so horrible” but they look down to the left for an internal dialogue, they could be lying. But you should always try and find out more before accusing someone of lying.

And with that, I’ll see you my irregulars.

The absolute basics.

Let’s talk about the absolute basics in deduction. Seems like there’s a lot of people that misunderstand them, even other deductionists. This post is made to correct some of these misunderstandings.

What do we deductionists do? We gather information and make conclusions about that information. The premise is simple. Is it simple to get to the same level as Sherlock? No. Do I know of someone that is on the same level as Sherlock? No, and I know quite a few deductionists. But here’s the big reason why I don’t know of anyone at the same level as Sherlock, it’s not that Sherlock is fictional, it’s because of perfect situations that Sherlock is in. These happen, but not as often as Sherlock finds himself in them.

The way with OCC:

First of all, you should try and remember OCC. This the order in which you as a deductionist should operate.

Observation – Here you observe the place or person you are deducing. There are things to look for if you have the knowledge, some says you should observe everything, and sure, you should do that in a perfect world but you won’t be able to use everything you observe so that will only waste your time when you get into higher ranks of deduction. And if you want to know what to observe than all you need to do is practice.

Conclusion – The second step is to come to a conclusion from what you have observed. This is the deduction, we will talk more about this later on in this text. This will require both logic and knowledge. If you lack in one of these then you’ll need to train that.

Confirmation – Now this is something most deductionist don’t do because they are scared of failing. If you don’t confirm if you are right you’ll hinder your own progress extremely. If you can confirm, always try to.


The parts

Now, most break down deduction into two parts, logic and knowledge. I think that the knowledge part needs to be split into two parts. Absolute knowledge and statistical knowledge. This is important, I’ll try and explain why but first you need to know about the three kinds of deduction.


Deduction –

This reasoning is used when you have one or more statements that you combine to reach a logical conclusion.

The reasoning is that if the statements are true and clear the conclusion must be true.

An example of deductive reasoning:

Statements:

  1. Pink is not a natural hair colour.
  2. Emily has pink hair.

Conclusion:

  • Someone/something has dyed Emily’s hair pink.


This is deduction in which you use absolute knowledge to make a deduction. And if you truly use absolute knowledge then the conclusion will be correct.


Induction –

In inductive reasoning, you come to a conclusion that’s probable. The statements are viewed as strong evidence for your conclusion.

An example of inductive reasoning:

Statements:

  1. There are marbles in this bag.
  2. All 8 out of 10 marbles I have seen from this bag are black.

Conclusion:

  • All marbles from this bag are black.

This doesn’t tell you if the conclusion is true or not but thanks to the strong evidence of the statements you’re presented with, it’s probable that the conclusion is true. This is statistical knowledge and will be true most of the time.


Abduction –

In abductive reasoning, you have the statements and from that, you make an educated guess about what the conclusion might be. This reasoning is looking for the best explanation.

An example of abductive reasoning:

Statements:

  1. The grass is wet.
  2. The grass is usually dry.


Conclusion:

  • It has rained.

This is something we deductionists often do. We always look for the best explanation based on the evidence we are provided. This, if done correctly, will also most often be true. This will often be your own conducted statistical knowledge.


The reason why “knowledge” should be split into “absolute knowledge” and “statistical knowledge” is that if you have the logic you’ll never be wrong with absolute knowledge, but with statistical knowledge, you can still be wrong. Some tell you that logic is more important than knowledge and vice versa. This couldn’t be more wrong. Logic and knowledge are equally important. Those who don’t agree probably don’t know that much about the category they are dismissing. Logic and knowledge should work together alongside each other.

But if you want the “WOW effect” one of these triumphs over the other. If you do a deduction via logic people can see your train of thought quite easily, especially if you explain it. If you do deduction via knowledge then people won’t be able to follow your train of thought without that specific knowledge. And more people have a good logical mind than specific knowledge about everything. Something magicians have as a catchphrase nowadays are “People aren’t stupid” and that is true. If you, the reader of this thinks that most people are stupid then you need to come out of that bubble of yours.


Some other things.

So can you yourself measure how good you are at deduction? No, not really. You’ll always be biased towards yourself. So if you like yourself, you’ll probably think that you are better at deduction than you really are. If you think the worst of yourself then you’ll probably think you are worse than you really are. Then we have the “Dunning–Kruger effect”, most of you will probably, in the beginning, think that you are better at deduction than you really are, because of the Dunning-Kruger effect. It predicts that beginners rate themselves to be better than they really are while experts rate themselves to be worse than they really are. So no you can’t measure your skill level yourself.

This point I’ll make now is kind of connected to the previous one. Don’t assume you are right. That would be really stupid. If you assume you are right, you’ll fall for confirmation bias. This is when you look for things that would prove what you believe to be true, and miss things that disprove your theory. One more reason this is bad, I know of deductionists that don’t want to accept that they’re wrong, even if it’s confirmed. They think the one that tells them they’re wrong are lying. Extremely bad.

The pattern.

Your knowledge about deduction will improve. In the beginning, before you start deduction you’ll probably not know about it at all, you’ll have an unconscious ignorance towards it. When you start reading about it, you’ll probably understand that you don’t know much about it. So you’ll have a conscious ignorance towards it. After trying it out and really learning you’ll start noticing that you can deduce some things, you’ll have and conscious knowledge towards deduction. When you’ve become an expert to master you’ll make deductions without thinking that much, you’ll have an unconscious knowledge about deduction.


Pattern:

  1. Unconscious ignorance
  2. Conscious ignorance
  3. Conscious knowledge
  4. Unconscious knowledge

So, how do you get better in deduction? Practice, it might sound cliché but it’s true. But however, you can shorten the time quite much, if you confirm your deductions. The second C in OCC is extremely important. If you don’t know what you are doing wrong then you can’t improve. You won’t get better just from reading this. So go out there and make deductions and most importantly confirm your deductions.

If you want me to write a post about confirming your deductions about people without the fear to fail (because if you fail they won’t know that you’ve failed) then write to me about that. A lot of people seem to be afraid of saying their deductions out loud.

And with that, I’ll see you my irregulars.

It was my responsibility to do this, therefore I am not sorry.