conservative estimates

Inform yourselves!!

Everything hurts today, so I thought I’d make an argument cheat sheet for the all the nonsense.

1. Trump supporter: “The military is no place for a social experiment! MAGA”

You: There are already transgender soldiers in the military. A conservative estimate is that there are 2,450 transgender soldiers actively serving and 1,510 in the reserves. They are already fighting and dying for you. (RAND)

2. Trump supporter: “We shouldn’t have to pay for their weird surgery! MAGA!!!”

You: You are right to be concerned about military surplus- but that surplus doesn’t have anything to do with these soldiers. Admitting transgender soldiers may increase costs between $2.4 and $8.4 million, but that is a tiny fraction of the overall budget. It will likely have little impact on the $6 billion we already spend for soldiers’ health. It’s, at most, 0.134%. (RAND)

3. Trump supporter: “You looney! Millions of dollars is millions of dollars!!! MAAAAAGA!!!!!”

You: Ok- let me put it this way. We spent $84.24 million dollars on erectile dysfunction drugs in 2014. Caring for these soldiers only costs a small fraction of that. (Military Times).

4. Trump supporter: “I don’t want anyone who’s mentally ill in the military! MAGAGMA!!”

You: Well, lucky for all of us, being transgender is not a mental illness. The American Psychological Association says, “A psychological state is considered a mental disorder only if it causes significant distress or disability. Many transgender people do not experience their gender as distressing or disabling, which implies that identifying as transgender does not constitute a mental disorder.”
Many people who are transgender do, in fact, suffer with depression or anxiety- but not because they are trans. They suffer because of lack of social support and bigotry they experience.

5. Trump: “Look- a hot dog is a hot dog and a taco is a taco—if you can’t tell the difference, you’re crazy. GMAMAG”

You: It’s more complicated than that. Your gender is not based on sexual characteristics alone. In fact, recent research suggests the brain structures of trans individuals have distinct similarities to their preferred gender than their natal gender. It’s frankly biology. And, if we want trans individuals to AVOID mental illness, the best treatment can be to let them transition in peace and without harassment. (Scientific American).

6. Trump supporter: “Have you ever heard of a trans hero?! They must not be doing anything even if they are there! MMMMM!”

You: Yep. Kristin Beck. She has a purple heart and was a part of Seal Team 6. She’s a badass.

7. Trump supporter: “Can you imagine how uncomfortable the other soldiers must be?! MAMA”

You: They’re soldiers. They’re fine. Good leadership makes a team cohesive- and other countries have already had success with having soldiers who are transgendered. (RAND).

8. Trump supporter: “I still don’t like it. MAGAZINE”

You: Well, we’ve established that these soldiers are already hard a work, cost very little to accommodate, are of sound mind and body, and have already been heroes. I’m not sure what you have left to be upset about.

9. Tum supporter: “VOMITS DISCRIMINATION.”

You: K…. bye.

(This was posted in a comment section on Facebook. To protect her, I will not post her name. But this isn’t mine. However, very informative. Also, she gave permission to post elsewhere. So, there ya go.)

A lovely batch of Tumblrs

Got a minute? Of course you do. Just a minute. Just click on any of these links below. 60 seconds to allow yourself to decompress. Let go of stress. Enjoy these affirmation-loaded, self-care heavy, soothing-as-heck Tumblrs:

Originally posted by pinklilies

Positive Pastel (@positivepastel)

An aptly titled Tumblr, for sure. Take a visually soothing scroll through this (mostly) soft pink curated blog. 

Their mission: “hope to make your day a little brighter.”
Their rate of success: we’ll estimate a conservative…100%.

Motivational Tattoos (@motivationaltattoos)

Originally posted by motivationaltattoos

Motivational Tattoos has the one-stop shop for anyone who wants to buy inspiring temporary tattoos, self-care printables, and dissolvable paper in the shape of a thought bubble all in one stop. Something weighing you down? Write it down, place it in some warm water, and watch that heavy thought melt away.

Originally posted by gentle-reminder

Gentle Reminder (@gentle-reminder)

The phrase “gentle reminder” might conjure up the image of old emails and texts from a passive-aggressive someone-or-another. That’s not this Tumblr. Gentle reminder: It reminds you, gently, to do nice things for yourself.

Originally posted by livingstills

Living Stills (@livingstills)

Remember when people were calling beautiful, artsy GIFs “cinemagraphs” because they seemed to be too beautiful to be called GIFs? @livingstills is full of those GIFs—beautiful, calming GIFs from the outdoors. It’s the second best thing to actually being in nature.


North Carolina needs $900 million in Hurricane Matthew aid. Trump is offering $6 million.

  • The Trump administration will grant just $6.1 million of the $929 million in federal aid North Carolina requested to fund the state’s recovery from Hurricane Matthew, Gov. Roy Cooper announced Wednesday.
  • That’s less than 1% of the “conservative” estimate of what the state says it needs to cover damages from last October’s devastating storm.
  • “Families across Eastern North Carolina need help to rebuild and recover, and it is an incredible failure by the Trump Administration and Congressional leaders to turn their backs,” Cooper said in a statement. Read more (5/12/17)

Alternate Title: 50%* of Figure Skating History in the Last Decade 

(*) conservative estimate
Red = current world records (as of May 2017)
This list is not exhaustive, many wonderful things he achieved have been left out due to lack of space and a desire to keep this post within not-too-extremely unreasonable length
This list will need to be updated in due time


Yes, self-driving cars will kill people. Human-inspired tech will determine who they save.

  • We’re on the brink of a new era of transportation, with self-driving cars making decisions as we take the back seat.
  • One analyst recently made a “conservative” estimate that 10 million autonomous vehicles would be on the road by 2020.
  • But this future also forces us to confront an ugly question: If an autonomous vehicle has to suddenly choose between killing two people, whom should it choose?
  • A recent study from the University of Osnabruck in Germany examined how human drivers would react to a sudden ultimatum. Read more (7/6/17)

follow @the-future-now
Map of massacres of Indigenous people reveals untold history of Australia, painted in blood
Research based on colonial or settler accounts and Indigenous oral history mark the thousands of first nations people killed by Europeans in frontier wars
By Calla Wahlquist

It is the untold history of Australia, painted in blood.

The numbers are staggering, but lead researcher Lyndall Ryan said they were conservative estimates.

This is the amount of distance Revali crosses to fight Ganon immediately after the “Return of Ganon” memory. In total it adds up to 666.81 px, with the map itself being 621 px across.

Given that Hyrule is just 9027 meters wide and that Revali moved 1.07x as far as that, this means Revali traveled a distance equal to 9658.89 meters in an unspecified timeframe. We can get a conservative estimate though.

At the beginning of the “Return of Ganon” memory we can see that it’s dawn, and during “Despair”, by which time Revali has already lost, the Moon is out. Both of these are pretty vague times, but we can guess about 16 hours have passed. Give or take a few hours.

Crossing 9658.89 meters in 16 hours comes out to 0.17 m/s. This would make Revali’s cruising speed just 0.38 mph. It’d probably be faster to walk.

Being more generous and saying he took the trip in 1 hour? Still just 2.68 m/s. About 6 mph. Either way, it seems like flight is a little overrated here.

EDIT: Done as a response to this post.

anonymous asked:

in stormcast you mentioned that every other johnny is bi/pan but ults johnny is gay and also mentioned that you went through a lot of careful examination to come to that conclusion? is there anything that stands out about why ults johnny is clearly more boy leaning? (i really ought to start signing the, what, four anons ive asked about ults johnny as like ultimate anon or something im really just very desperate for people to actually talk about 1610)

Hi Ultimate Johnny anon! I’m more than happy to chat about 1610 with you – I think ultimately (badumpsh) we’re going to have to do a proper 1610 Johnny issue of Stormcast, when I can mention Ultimate Marvel without prompting the Yuuhy edition of “we need to delete 45 minutes of this.” So as per usual “careful examination” means “a lot of twitter conversation between your @johnnystormcast hosts and also @teenbrigade“ but yeah okay I’m about to scan the text waaaay too closely for a sec. Here’s my reasoning behind the headcanon:

So first off, while 616 Johnny has a truly disastrous love life, Ultimate Johnny has basically no love life. Two issues is a long relationship for him and he has no actual serious relationships. He expresses a lot of interest in girls initially within his story, but with one notable exception that I’m going to get to later, it’s entirely on the physical side. (Again, as opposed to 616 Johnny, who wants to Fall In True Love and Get Married. I have a lot of thoughts about 616 Johnny and the typical male superhero model but that is another post entirely.) As one of his girlfriends notes, “It’s like your afraid of your own feelings.”

But with guys? Ultimate Johnny pays a lot of attention to guys. He comments to Ben that his eyes are the same before and after the accident, which is notable because Johnny knew Ben for like five whole minutes before they were transformed, so he must have really been looking at his face in those five minutes. Later, when Ben is pursuing Liz Allan, who has fire powers in Ultimate Marvel, Johnny asks him if it’s not some sort of weird power transference thing and it’s not him Ben’s really in love with. When Ben molts his rocky shell, Johnny as well as Sue (who would propose marriage to Ben at the end of this story) gets touchy. (Ask me about how the Storms have similar taste in men, a totally different post altogether.)

And then there’s Peter. Ultimate Johnny adores Spider-Man like, from the first minute. At the bonfire on the beach in Ultimate Spider-Man #68 (a group date, which is Ultimate Johnny’s favorite kind of date, and I’m going to get to that), he says “I love that guy” when Spider-Man comes up in conversation. He’s awestruck and impressed by Spider-Man when they meet face-to-mask for the first time (which is specifically on Mary Jane’s suggestion that Peter should go cheer Johnny up). Peter is Johnny’s inspiration to use his powers to help other people. Later, after the mask comes off, he uses Peter as an excuse to get out of a date he doesn’t want to be on and generally seems to want to be around him, showing up at his school after a bad date and going to the beach with Peter’s group of friends.

After his father dies in the Ultimatum wave and the Fantastic Four break up, Johnny disappears for a while. When he makes his return (exhausted and beaten up, something that’s never explained) it’s to Peter’s house in Queens, not to his sister. Peter seems to give him a sense of security – he’d rather repeat high school and live with three other teenagers in Queens than go stay with Sue in her science tower.

Look at how cute this hug is.

In fact, the only girl 1610 Johnny displays 616 Johnny’s tendency to go “hi we just met but I LOVE YOU and we should GET MARRIED I’ve already named our 8 children which I will stay-at-home parent” is Ultimate Jessica Drew, who is not the 1610 counterpart of 616 Jessica Drew but instead a clone of Peter Parker.

Johnny doesn’t know she’s Peter’s clone but he does know she’s a spider-powered brunette and at one point asks Peter if she’s his cousin, so I think it’s fair to say the resemblance to Peter probably plays into things here.

After Peter’s death, instead of staying with May Parker (like Gwen does) or returning home, he goes with Bobby Drake (another resident of May Parker’s Home For Wayward Youths) to Kitty’s mutant underground in the Morlock tunnels, where his main connection is to Bobby. 

Ultimate Johnny also really, really, really likes double-dating. He mostly suggests it with Peter and Bobby, but he went on a double date early in Ultimate Fantastic Four with Ben&Alicia where Alicia set him up with one of her friends. He proceeded to be completely uninterested in Alicia’s friend. 

On the last double date we see him go on (which is almost certainly the last double date period, since after Peter’s death Bobby and Johnny join the mutant underground, ultimately leading to Johnny’s capture and imprisonment), he has this conversation with Bobby while walking home:

“But would you want to kiss a girl who only wanted to make out with you because you were Iceman?” is some pretty big character development for a guy who claimed to be a totally different celebrity to score a date with a girl at the beginning of Ultimate Fantastic Four. Notably at this point we don’t really see Johnny pay romantic attention to any girl. So I do headcanon that Ultimate Johnny used double dates as a way to go on a date with a guy he liked (primarily Peter and Bobby) without ever actually having to ask the guy out. 

I think a lot of Ultimate Johnny’s story is about him learning what he actually wants: his desire to be around people his own age (USM 68), his desire to be a superhero (USM 69), his desire to live with Peter and May Parker and to have a normal, stable life, and I think ultimately his desire to be romantically involved with a man. But also the Ultimate universe is dead now and Johnny was pretty much totally out of the picture by the end of it so. Jazz hands.

Life is short, though I keep this from my children.
Life is short, and I’ve shortened mine
in a thousand delicious, ill-advised ways,
a thousand deliciously ill-advised ways
I’ll keep from my children. The world is at least
fifty percent terrible, and that’s a conservative
estimate, though I keep this from my children.
For every bird there is a stone thrown at a bird.
For every loved child, a child broken, bagged,
sunk in a lake. Life is short and the world
is at least half terrible, and for every kind
stranger, there is one who would break you,
though I keep this from my children. I am trying
to sell them the world. Any decent realtor,
walking you through a real shithole, chirps on
about good bones: This place could be beautiful,
right? You could make this place beautiful.
—  Maggie Smith, “Good Bones”

LaVeyan Satanism is a religion founded in 1966 by Anton Szandor LaVey. Its teachings are based on individualism, self-indulgence, and “eye for an eye” morality. Unlike Theistic Satanists, LaVeyan Satanists are Atheists, Agnostics and Apatheists who regard Satan as a symbol of man’s inherent nature. According to, LaVeyan Satanism is a “small religious group that is unrelated to any other faith, and whose members feel free to satisfy their urges responsibly, exhibit kindness to their friends, and attack their enemies”. Its beliefs were first detailed in The Satanic Bible and it is overseen by the Church of Satan.

LaVeyan Satanism, often referred to simply as Satanism among most adherents, was founded in 1966 by Anton LaVey. Its teachings are based on individualism, self-control, a morality based on severe retribution on people who aggravate you, drawing influences from the rituals and ceremonies of occultist Aleister Crowley, and the philosophies of Friedrich Nietzsche and Ayn Rand. Employing Crowley’s terminology, its adherents define Satanism as a “Left-Hand Path” religion and philosophy, rejecting traditional “Right-Hand Path” religions such as Christianity and Wicca for their perceived denial of life and, as in Christianity, emphasis on abstinence. Unlike Theistic Satanism, LaVeyan Satanism does not involve the literal worship of any being other than the self, but rather uses “Satan” as a symbol of carnality and earthly values, of man’s inherent nature, in what it calls ‘ritual psychodramas’.

Anton LaVey established Satanism’s first and largest religious organization, the Church of Satan, in 1966, and codified Satanic beliefs and practices in The Satanic Bible in 1969. The Church of Satan acknowledges that there are many Satanists around the world, including both members and non-members. It rejects the legitimacy of any other organizations of Satanists, dubbing them reverse-Christians and pseudo-Satanists. Although exact numbers are not known, conservative estimates are that the number of adherents run into the thousands.

In 1969, LaVey published The Satanic Bible, which, even to this day, remains the most authoritative literature on the subject of LaVeyan Satanism, outlining the basic concepts, philosophy and rituals of the religion. A companion book, The Satanic Rituals, published in 1972, presents an array of rituals associated with Satanism throughout the ages, but not necessarily central to the Church’s belief system.

old people always talk about having a mid life crisis but ive already had like 5 and im not even 30

Untimely Ripped

Until I was rushed into emergency surgery, there was nothing really unusual about my pregnancy. I was perfectly healthy for nine months. I went to doula-guided community yoga classes where we processed our pregnancies in group talks and learned about safe, empowering natural alternatives to the Patriarchal Medical Establishment. I sailed into and out of appointments with my OB/GYN (who I went to because I was pretty sure I’d want that epidural in the end, no matter how patriarchal it was). I didn’t have a single complication or complaint to report. And then I actually went into labor, and everything went wrong at once.

Keep reading

Zoos Kill Animals

Not long ago, the European Association of Zoos and Aquaria (The EAZA) gave a conservative estimate that up to 5,000 animals are killed by European zoos every year. The BBC however, has stated that there is good reason to believe the numbers are actually higher and that it continues to grow. This practice is not isolated to European zoos either. Zoos across the world, including in the United States are infamous for killing their animals.

The next time you are in a medical office that continues to keep a physical appointment book as well as an electronic one, please inform them that by conservative estimates, they are wasting over $3,000 per year in hourly salary alone.  (This doesn’t even take into account THE HUNDREDS OF MISTAKES AND LOST APPOINTMENTS.)

If they can’t be arsed to bring their offices into this century to make their patients’ lives easier, then maybe we can appeal to their greed.

Admin J


The Stats on the Homeless

Every year an estimated 2 million or more people spend time homeless, or houseless, in America. With added economic hardships and the continuing recession, these figures are most likely a conservative estimate. You might think of homeless people as uneducated, drug-addicted, dirty, unstable people who are just too lazy or crazy to have a job, but that’s only a small fraction of the millions of Americans who are without a home. Let’s learn who the homeless really are.

Grace is going abroad! (and she also needs help)

Hey, everyone! I know I don’t usually post things, but this is very exciting to me.

Earlier this year I earned a spot in the prestigious CBYX scholarship. A scholarship that allows 250 American children to study in Germany (as well as 250 German kids to study in the US) 

This means that next year I’ll be studying in Germany for an entire year. The best part is that since it is a scholarship I don’t have to pay for any of the exchange fees (almost 9,000 US dollars on a conservative estimate.) Those of you who know me know that my family isn’t the most financially secure, so this would be impossible for me if it wasn’t paid for. 

However, the scholarship doesn’t cover everything. The scholarship doesn’t cover domestic travel costs (i.e. a plane ticket from California to D.C.) It also doesn’t cover ‘personal money’ over in Germany. This personal money is used for things such as; any meals that aren’t covered by a host family, personal hygiene products, transportation costs. Basically, anything that isn’t room and board, meals that the host family will provide, and the program fees. 

My mother was required to promise that she’ll send me at least $200 a month, this is a lot for my family. So I’m going to ask that people might donate whatever they feel appropriate. I completely understand if you’d rather donate to someone in a worse situation than I am (they need it more). Also, this is ongoing for the entire year I’m there, so if you want to donate but can’t do it now, there will be another chance.  But! if you donate to me and feel like you want something in return you can contact me and you and I can talk about getting you on the list of people to whom I am emailing pictures of Germany. 

My PayPal is  Even the smallest donations are so appreciated. I love you all!


↳ as seen on Cosmos: A Spacetime Odyssey

The Royal Library of Alexandria, or Ancient Library of Alexandria, was one of the largest and most significant libraries of the ancient world. It was dedicated to the Muses, the nine goddesses of the arts. It flourished under the patronage of the Ptolemaic dynasty and functioned as a major center of scholarship from its construction in the 3rd century BC until the Roman conquest of Egypt in 30 BC. With collections of works, lecture halls, meeting rooms, and gardens, the library was part of a larger research institution called the Musaeum of Alexandria, where many of the most famous thinkers of the ancient world studied.
The library was created by Ptolemy I Soter, who was a Macedonian general and the successor of Alexander the Great. Most of the books were kept as papyrus scrolls, and though it is unknown how many such scrolls were housed at any given time, their combined value was incalculable. The library is famous for having been burned resulting in the loss of many scrolls and books, and has become a symbol of the destruction of cultural knowledge. A few sources differ on who is responsible for the destruction and when it occurred. Although there is a mythology of the burning of the Library at Alexandria, the library may have suffered several fires or acts of destruction over many years. Possible occasions for the partial or complete destruction of the Library of Alexandria include a fire set by Julius Caesar in 48 BC, an attack by Aurelian in the AD 270s, and the decree of Coptic Pope Theophilus in AD 391.
The library’s index, Callimachus’ Pinakes, was lost with the rest of the library, and it is not possible to know with certainty how large and how diverse the collection may have been. At its height, the library was said to possess nearly half a million scrolls, and, although historians debate the precise number, the highest estimates claim 400,000 scrolls while the most conservative estimates are as low as 40,000, which is still an enormous collection that required vast storage space. This library, with the largest holdings of the age, acquired its collection by laborious copying of originals. Galen spoke of how all ships visiting the city were obliged to surrender their books for immediate copying. The owners received a copy while the pharaohs kept the originals in the library within their museum. [x]