Pourquoi les sondages politiques sont faux par essence et l’intérêt du vote “utile”

Quelques éléments pour éclairer les indécis et les personnes tentées par un vote “utile” à défaut d’un vote par conviction :

Les sondages sont presque, sinon tous réalisés par internet. 
Cela laisse de côté de grosses communautés, dont celles qui n’ont pas accès à internet (en particulier les classes pauvres ou rurales), celles qui n’ont pas le temps de se consacrer à ces sondages (classes rurales et/ou ouvrières), les personnes non ou peu francophones, ou qui n’ont pas la volonté de s’investir dans ces sondages.
Les instituts de sondages partent du postulat que les sondés représentent un échantillon suffisamment vaste de la population. Or la démarche qui vise à démultiplier leurs résultats pour établir un postulat global est plus de l’ordre de la supputation que des mathématiques, la méthode de sondage n’étant par définition, pas du tout scientifique. 

C’est ce qui explique que tous les sondages apparaissent comme faux ou très loin de la réalité une fois les scrutins passés. Par exemple, ils n’ont juste pas du tout pu prévoir, ou même envisager la victoire d’Hamon aux primaires socialistes. Hamon jouit d’un fort soutien rural et ouvrier : ces classes n’étant dans les faits pas sondées, les instituts de sondages ont supposé leur vote et… se sont plantés. 
Même logique dans les élections “surprises” de politiques FN : ce sont les votants issus des classes rurales et ouvrières et/ou pauvres qui les ont fait élire. Ces votants sont invisibles, peu importe le candidat. 
Pour rappel, si les sondages avaient “vu” juste à l’ère d’internet : Sarko réélu en 2012, pas ou très peu de FN aux législatives, Valls aux primaires PS et Juppé aux primaires droite. Voilà. 

Aussi, chaque parti politique y va de sa technique pour altérer les sondages : Par exemple, Mélenchon est réputé pour avoir une équipe d’une trentaine de “geeks”, dont la mission est de torpiller les sondages et d’assurer sa présence sur les réseaux sociaux par le biais des commentaires. Je le prends en exemple car son équipe est justement passée dimanche soir dans Capital, mais cela pourrait être n’importe qui. Les sondages font parti du jeu politique, au même titre que le traitement médiatique qui en est fait. Les sondages ne constituent plus des données fiables mais des suppositions. 

La seule vérité, c’est qu’il n’y en a pas : il n’y a pas, à l’heure actuelle, de statistiques scientifiques sur les intentions de vote. Le vote utile est donc caduc, dans le sens où il se base sur des informations interprétées.
En partant de ce constat (et c’est un conseil tout à fait personnel), ne faites confiance qu’à vous-même et ce en quoi vous croyez. Votez pour le ou la candidat.e qui vous parait aller dans le sens de votre vision de l’avenir, et uniquement cette personne-ci. 

Nous ne sommes clairement pas à l’abri d’une “surprise”, qu’elle soit bonne ou mauvaise. Vous avez pleinement le pouvoir de créer cette surprise. 


Basically a slightly modified RANT i made about @MARVEL as LEGNA on a fanfic(had literally nothing to do with the fic. Biggest tangent on a comment ever. but i did it, and i got to get it out of my chest, its been EATING at me for a while.)

My dumbass is starting to realize that 616 will only ever satisfy people with their stories on an Action level. Because, the thing is, these characters have being around a long time, and will be around for even longer. Because it is believed that the audience doesn’t wanna see their characters grow old, comics freeze them in time. This creates perpetually young characters with a bunch of action and shit going down, constantly, through a long period of time. Like, 40 years to the reader, equals, say, 10 years in the X-Men, for example. Add the fact, that the idea of writing a happy couple doesn’t appeal to writers, for the reason that the sole idea of keeping that up, for who knows how long, might bore the audience(completely debatable). The only couples that are allowed to be happy, these days, are the ones that might, in the real world, be given a harder time by our awful society simply for existing (Take Biracial Couples: jessica jones/luke cage, or Same Sex Couples: rictor/shatterstar). I reallyREALLYreally hate the ABSOLUTE FALSE idea that writing an established couple is the ruination of two great characters. (This implies that the most exciting thing that can happen to a couple is a dramatic rupture, almost as ridiculous as the idea that the very best thing that might happen to someone is being in a relationship). You can still write life partners, in an interesting, entertaining way, that stick together through thick and thin, regardless of how hard it gets(Mystique/Destiny, until Irene died). The way comic writers keep tearing people apart, for what almost appears to be a lazy try at the glorified “Gritty Realism”. ’S got me yawning at this point  ya’ll, tbh. We all have a pretty clear idea, how the X-Men would have been wrapped had it been meant to be a short story, or at least a story with a specific date of caducity. I am not ranting for the sake of Romy(ROGUExGAMBIT), because as much as I love the couple, that is neither here nor there. What annoys me is the fact that Rogue’s characterisation is a fucking tragedy (I’m using her, as an example, never mind the fact that most heroes act like goddamn teenagers in these books). No one who’s gone through the stuff she’s gone through, acts the way she does in the comics (the way she’s been written by certain authors). She’s literally the Token Angry Person. Know what I’d REALLY appreciate at this point? ACTUAL Gritty Realism. Not glamourised SuperBullshit. Give me Heroes in therapy. Give me Heroes with PTSD. Give me Heroes that switch sides(whether it’s for the better or as a mistake). Give me heroes that struggle with killing, and collateral. Give me Heroes that cash out in the pursuit of their own happiness. Give me Heroes with anti-climatic deaths. Heroes who struggle with addiction. Realistically positive things, even. Heroes who part relationships amicably. Give me Piotr Raputin AND Kitty effin’ Pryde, actually, compromising about their Personal Ideologies(They are both heroes who believe in the Greater Good. The only people who do not manage to compromise on these types of things, are those who care more about being right, than they do about their own happiness). Because, while I do believe, that a Superhero’s life would be HARD AS ALL HELL. Even more so as a couple, I also believe that surviving the amount of shit that they already HAVE together would create a very specific type of bond that isn’t addressed in 616!canon. Using Gambit and Rogue as an example: With that  whole SHITSHOW with Vargas under their belt among everything else… There is no way that a break up down the line would NOT have been cataclysmic, emotionally. To an extent that a civilian would never understand. That shared life experience is under NO circumstances on the same level as “Oh, we had even rented our wedding venue, and now we are perfect strangers” (which is totes what one would guess with the tepid, half-assed, pussyfooting BS we read about them now a days). This is: We have literally, in a relationship or otherwise, brought each other back from the dead and now we don’t talk anymore. I’m not touching the whole Antartica fiasco with a 10-foot-pole (they addressed it like, once.  Rogue absorbed Remy’s despair and desire to die, and I’m just here like… weak. WEAK. Like…….. Should’t we talk more about this??? Did she try to come back when his psyche faded??? Ugh. UGH.) Comics Rogue is super indecisive, right? She’s like I’ll follow u till the ends of the earth to save you from yourself, and 3 minutes later, She’s like: I need some space. I need some time. I need to be alone. Like ??????????????????  In their line of work where they could be dead tomorrow that makes no sense. The kind of perspective that sort of lifestyle grants you doesn’t fit the high school level coping mechanisms. Like, yeah. perhaps if you live under normal circumstances, with a 9-to-5 job thats like a thing. BUT THEY DO NOT??????????????? THEY LIVE UNDER THE MOST BATSHIT REALITY? Like if those were her legit emotional resources she would’ve offed herself years ago????? BUT LETS SAY IT IS A THING. Let’s say that she does have that impulse to push everyone who loves her away. Realistically, she’d done it like at first????? and then I don’t know, GROW UP? ???????????????????

and the worst WORST PART
Is that lazy writing has gotten her character to read as this petty, insufferable bitch that Gambit puts up with??????
that was not what her character was meant to be



AND TO CULMINATE THE RANT: I have no doubt in my mind that their relationship would have NEVER deteriorated to the point it is today, had writers not fallen into drama for the sake of it. To have her push him away, as if that should be the deciding factor of Remy Lebeau being or not an adventurer. She wants him=Relationship(boring). She doesn’t=He lives it up around the world. At this point. I swear. Even if a writer were like: Yeah, you know what? kiss and make up. In a minute, another would be like: OOC (TAKING INTO ACCOUNT SAID CHARACTER’S CURRENT DEVELOPMENT) SLEEZY AFFAIR ANYONE HMM?. Then, the next one, would make the other get kidnapped by aliens, and since it has no fixated ending it’ll just go on and on and on. Pulling them together and apart, for ~Shock Value~. 




fuck you for always.

TL DR: Real Life does, absolutely, deal with break ups and estrangement, and personal tragedy, and a whole lot of really REALLY shitty BS. But if I, as a 23 year old woman from a third world country, know enough about psychology, and wellness, and mindfulness, to fucking AIM to acknowledge and rid myself of toxic behaviour, to be better and HAPPIER. I have no doubt in my mind NEW YORK HQd Heroes, that are as well traveled as they are. Know as much as they do about the world, have just a bit more of a grip on their Emotional Inteligence than the cast of Jersey Shore. just saying’.

Quite Frankly? Like how much better would comics be, if we didn’t just get the Ultron’s back for the 67th time story, or “X” is back from the dead trope. IMAGINE if they used a mix of mundane/extraordinary elements to create a story. Like, i don’t know. Bobby coming out of the closet, and doing something lame like speed dating, and hanging out with Kyle and Jean Paul, and Star and Ric, while he tries to save the world. Like, give me SOMETHING heartwarming before you dash my hopes and dreams. Comics would be so much better if instead of trying to be a full on escape from reality with their far fetched, and at this point, quite honestly, pointless and repetitive adventures, we saw heroes, simultaneously, struggle with mundane, human problems, that they, in the end, managed to rise above of. TALK ABOUT WIN-WIN. 

Needless to say. I don’t believe that heroes are PRE-REQUISITELY supposed to come with an element of tragedy, or misery, in order to be a legit hero(SIDE-EYEING THE HELL OUT OF YOU DC COMICS

There are positive forces that push people into heroics, I like to believe. I do not subscribe to the idea, that it is a superheroes’ dissatisfaction with other elements in their life, that push them to be devoted heroes.

I introduce to you Caduce Mercur, a ceruleanblood troll made by me and my friend. She’s impatient and can be easly angered. She hates meeting new people unless she is accompanied by a little group of her friends. Her hobbies include Biology, Chemistry and Reading Books, especialy scientific ones and stories about thieves and Corsairs. She also enjoys participating in FLARP. She also holds interest in cooking and baking, but actually sucks at both.
She has a mutation, which makes both of her eyes have two pupils.


A couple of GW2 bust commissions for @caduceator! Really cute characters, drawing their sylvari was especially fun because that’s one of my favorite hairstyles in the game, haha, I went a bit wild with it. Thank you for commissioning me!

her presence casts a timid shadow
that makes my soul crush
into walls unknown to me
that had been separating
ambiguous concepts for ages,
lingering between the gentle touch of a key that fits
and the confinement behind your previously assigned ward.
so I wonder –

i) was there a time
when the white strands of carefully covert memories
didn’t crown your hair
forsaking past grace for present caducity?
you burnt those pictures away
without a second glance,
you sacrificed piece after piece,
ripping it off your healthy bones
without building a new self in return
and, while others blamed the lack of mortar
on the rotten cells of your labile mind,
never fighting the imminent disintegration
cast upon yourself with cruelty
by chance,
no one cared enough to realise
that maybe
you only set fire to yourself
because the vivid photographs of the days
before you kneeled
froze you in a time
you could no longer control.

ii) how long have you been standing there
in the doorframe,
hands behind your strenuous back,
mouth barely curling in a whisper?
have you drowned your thoughts
under the glimmering surface of deceiving judgement
or are they only spoken
to the particles of dust
floating through a room
stuck with a peculiar scent that kept us all away
amid all compassion?
you never opened the windows,
afraid the wind would blow
the little that was left of you

iii) why won’t you just leave me alone?
anger rises in veins that can contain it no more,
so I burst at you carelessly
because it’s easier to step on crooked hearts
than acknowledge their mere need for affection;
because the uneasy step
someplace, sometime, before someone
as far away as everything I’ve ever known
had rendered my empathy inexistent.
your fragile beingness baffles me,
the sudden void you’d leave behind would do
just the same.
I love you
but I don’t know how to,
so I close another door
and become complacent in the venom
of my own futility.

iv) they say schizophrenia
can be inherited
quite easily;
so am I shutting you down,
for fear of what I might become?

—  “inheritance is accidental”, luana gavan
Coppice — Vantage/Cordoned (Caduc.)

Noé Cuéllar and Joseph Kramer’s windblown recordings portray the inner life of their instruments. In the case of Vantage/Cordonedm, that’s a pair of prepared pump organs and various tape players manipulated to produce a bristly, granular stream of noise thick with debris; the clamor is evocative of industrial materials and broken mechanical bits like buzzing plastic frames, frayed wires, rusted brass reeds and over-stuffed bellows emitting air from all the wrong places. Their sound is broken and weathered and pocked with imperfections, but carefully controlled and recorded too, deliberately filled with the gritty life of distorted noise and malfunctioning equipment.

Keep reading

anonymous asked:

i was wondering if you could please rec some fics where merlin or arthur is an anonymous person online and the other is intrigued or if that's too specific, any online au fics?

Chatroom by neuroticnick
After breaking up with his girlfriend of two years, Arthur’s friend suggests he visit a chatroom to meet someone new. Arthur doesn’t expect any results, and only follows through with the idea for lack of anything better to do. But then he starts talking to the witty, intelligent, and absolutely hilarious user known only as MightBeMagic, and it seems like his friend’s advice wasn’t so bad after all.

Fan Favorite KMM
Arthur knew it wasn’t really a good idea to read the comments people made about him online.

Social Networking Encourages Stalkerish Tendencies by SecretForKeeps
In which Merlin is an adorable nerd and Arthur becomes a bit of an internet stalker. And everyone is on tumblr.

Skinny Love by jxnna
Arthur runs your classic comedy Tumblr blog, Emrys runs a posh hipster Tumblr blog, Merlin works in the cafe down the road, and Arthur ends up in the middle of a lot of things.

Something more than desperation by Anon
Arthur’s adventures through (a) internet dating and (b) love.

The Meat Feast by cornmouse
Merlin is a BNF fanartist for The Roman, a camp HBO gladiator show. He accidentally becomes involved with The Roman’s lead actor, Arthur Pendragon, over Skype without realizing it. Many pornographic shenanigans and misunderstandings ensue.

Pairing Pendragon/Merlin by Anon
Arthur is a BNF and Merlin is his prized beta

They Meet On Chatroulette by superfletch

Hesitation by sadtomato
“It was only three seconds of hesitation, but it told Arthur everything.” Merlin’s been lying about his age to Arthur, who he’s been flirting with online. What happens when they meet in RL? Will Arthur be charmed despite the lie, or will he…

/love by shesakicker
World of Warcraft. Arthur and Merlin meet in-game.

Caduceator KMM
Eleven months. Three days. Fourteen hours. Twenty-Seven minutes. Thirty-Two seconds.