battleground state

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New study projects a stunning drop in 2018 millennial voter turnout in battleground states

  • The 2016 presidential election — and its outcome — may have given plenty of Americans a new sense of urgency when it comes to civics.
  • But a new study projects that 40 million Americans who voted last year will likely not show up at the polls for the 2018 midterms.
  • And that two-thirds of those “drop-off” voters will be millennials, unmarried women and people of color.
  • The report, just out from the Voter Participation Center and Lake Research Partners, “Comparing the Voting Electorate in 2012-2016 and Predicting 2018 Drop-off,” notes that many of those expected not to cast a ballot next year live in key battleground states like Arizona, Nevada, Florida and Ohio. Read more (7/21/17)
nytimes.com
Move Left, Democrats
Focus on progressive Obama coalition defectors, not on conservative white working-class voters.
By Steve Phillips

The math underlying that conclusion is incorrect (Mr. Trump picked up not “millions,” but only 784,000 white votes in the 10 battleground states he won by single digits). And it misses the bigger — and more fixable — problem of white Democratic defections to third- and fourth-party candidates.

Hillary Clinton lost the decisive states of Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan by 77,744 votes; the number of Democratic votes dropped significantly from 2012 levels, and the Republican total increased by about 440,000 votes. The third- and fourth-party surge, however, was larger than the Republican growth, with 503,000 more people choosing the Libertarian or the Green candidate than had done so in 2012. When you look at the white vote in those states, the picture is even more stark.

In Wisconsin, according to the exit poll data, Mrs. Clinton received 193,000 fewer white votes than Mr. Obama received in 2012, but Mr. Trump’s white total increased over Mitt Romney’s by just 9,000 votes. So where did the other 184,000 Wisconsin whites go? A majority went to third and fourth parties, which, together, received 100,000 more white votes than they did in 2012.

In Michigan, where 75 percent of the voters were white, Mrs. Clinton received about 295,000 fewer votes than Mr. Obama did, but the Republican total increased by just 164,000 votes. The ranks of those voting third and fourth party leapt to more than 250,000 last year from about 51,000 in 2012, and Mrs. Clinton fell short by just 10,704 votes.

In Pennsylvania, the Democrats’ problem was not with white voters, but with African-Americans. Mrs. Clinton actually improved on the Democratic 2012 results with whites, but over 130,000 unenthused black voters stayed home, and she lost by about 44,000 votes.

I’ve been asked “Why did HIllary Clinton lose?”

I’ve seen people say “Hillary lost because of Tumblr-styled intolerance and bigotry” or “Hillary lost because of the left’s fear-mongering.”  Both of which are utterly false and are nothing more than the masturbatory bullshit of people on this site.

This is why Hillary Clinton lost.

Because the Democratic Party was too corrupt and too right-wing in the eyes of the American People.  They ran a candidate that nobody believed in, which was the only way that Donald Trump could win, who 2/3rds of Americans thought was a liar on Election Day.  Following that, of All Trump Voters the Supreme Court and the Debates were two of the most important factors.  The largest factor was that people wanted change and didn’t care who gave it to them, or how the change occurred.

Clinton lost because nobody trusted her and she represented the establishment.  Trump won because, even if even less people liked him, more people thought he’d change the system.

It wasn’t identity politics.  It wasn’t tumblr-isms.  It wasn’t even Nazi-Punching.  It was the Supreme Court.  It was ISIS.  And, mostly, it was trying to fix Washington.

It’s really that simple.

trueromantic1 replied to your post: Today has been a shitstorm for 99% of the country…

Damn, what happened now?

it’s really this whole week so far…

  • the senate has voted to repeal the affordable care act and the final vote is up this week (no replacement at all)
  • transgender individuals are completely banned from serving in the military
  • what has always been a non-political speech and event, addressing the Boys Scouts of America, 45 made it all about him and politics; bringing up his “huge” electoral college win, “fake news”, mocking Hillary, slamming President Obama, thanking the boy scouts for their votes (!!!!), just negative negative negative and then boosting his own ego

Quote from the New York Times - “He recounted the battleground states he won in last year’s election. He said Hillary Clinton “didn’t work hard” in Michigan, eliciting boos at the mention of his opponent’s name. He resurfaced his grievances with “fake news” and repeatedly doubted that the news media would report the size of the jamboree crowd. And when he landed on the second point of the Scout Law — loyalty — Mr. Trump interrupted himself to say, “We could use some more loyalty, I will tell you that.”

It just keeps getting worse and worse. I still haven’t been able to wrap my head around the complete ban of all transgender people from the military.

You can’t blame black people for Clinton’s loss

According to exit polls, 88% of black people voted for Hillary Clinton, compared with 37% of white people. Clinton lost key battleground states like North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida, but those losses do not lie at the feet of black voters. This election was a statement from a whiter, wealthier electorate.

follow @the-movemnt

On Tuesday, more than 128 million people voted for our next president. Nearly half were elated with the results: a Donald Trump victory.

Though he failed to win the popular vote, Trump won 29 states (as of this writing; still waiting on Arizona and New Hampshire) and prevailed in key battleground states, including Ohio, Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Exit polls show that a majority of white people — spanning all age ranges — voted for Trump. Non-college-educated white people especially loved him. And though it’s true that his support was overwhelmingly white — the majority of people of color voted for Clinton, according to CNN’s survey — there’s a striking caveat: Twenty-nine percent of Asians and Latinos and 8 percent of black people voted for Trump.

But 69 million people chose someone else. Many were turned off by the business mogul, who once described Mexican immigrants as rapists, called for the deportation of Syrian refugees, advocated banning all Muslim immigrants, touted the benefits of the unconstitutional stop-and-frisk program and had once been sued by the Justice Department and accused of housing discrimination.

It made for a contentious and fraught campaign. Early on Election Day, we asked our readers and listeners to tell us what they thought about the future of race relations in the U.S.

“I’m scared for myself, my children, and my family,” wrote Fallon Banks, a black woman whose father is an immigrant from Cape Verde. “I’m scared that folks are going to pretend that this election is about social stratification, when it is clearly about protecting white supremacy.”

Many of the responses we got — nearly all of them, in fact — looked like that. They centered on the fear, dread and resignation that some Americans are feeling. The vote totals present two very different outlooks inspired by the president-elect. Here are some perspectives, most from the America that had hoped for something else.

The Outlook On Race After Trump Victory: Fear, Resignation And Deja Vu

Photo: Yana Paskova for NPR

if-blogs-were-real  asked:

Ok so like Kossith, right? It's been bothering me we keep getting these hints about thier origins without real answers (among several other things but hear me out i'm trying to stay consice) they came from elves most likely mixed with dragon blood (as hinted by cassandra & bull), the pyramids of par vollen entry: returning after having found the Qun. Painting in the lost temple of dirthamen: scaled, horned, tails(before the Qun??) They went north?? (battleground state & freed are slaves) hold on

By the way i’m sorry if that made no sense i’m working on a story & started thinking too hard & went down SEVERAL rabbit trails & youre the first person that came to mind who enjoys headcanon discussion stuff (you really inspire me with your awesomeness. I love your blog/art/writing/all that other sentimental jazz)

I am pleased to hear it. I really do enjoy trying to formulate theories and extrapolate based on what tiny clues the canon gives us. (And thank you for the kind words. <3)

As far as I’m concerned, we really don’t know enough about the Kossith to completely narrow their origins down to a single theory. There are a lot of possibilities. Some things we do know about the Kossith/Qunari and their connection to dragons:

  • Corypheus says that the Qunari race isn’t a race but “a mistake” suggesting that they were created rather than simply being the result of evolutionary forces. Whether this magical/genetic manipulation happened before or after the existence of the Kossith is unknown. The Kossith could have already existed and merely been the subjects of experimentation OR the Kossith may have been created from something else. 
  • Considering the source of that information, it would not be unreasonable to assume that this process was happening sometime within Corypheus’s lifetime - but given that the orb granted him information about ancient Elvhenan that he couldn’t have otherwise known, it’s also possible that whatever happened to “make” the Qunari what they are occurred well before his time.
  • Bull’s talk of dragon’s blood as part of their breeding: “A few of the Ben-Hassrath have a crazy old theory. See, the Tamassrans control who we mate with. They breed us for jobs like you’d breed dogs or horses. What if they mixed in some dragon a long time ago? Maybe drinking the blood, maybe magic, I don’t know.”
  • Ogres are the descendants of Kossith/Qunari broodmothers. We know that many (if not the majority) of them came from a colony of Kossith that settled in what is now Ferelden. They were wiped out ages ago, before the arrival of the Qun.
  • They say that we can’t be certain what the Kossith looked like before the Qunari started enforcing selective breeding. While this is largely true, I think that ogres give us a definite clue as they pre-date Qunari exposure to the Blight. The fact that they have horns does at least suggest that it was a typical trait among the Kossith. Their stature is another thing to consider. If the Blight did not alter their height, then the Kossith could have been huge compared to modern Qunari. For the majority of darkspawn, they appear to have roughly the same proportions as their non-corrupted counterparts (with the exception of the genlock redesigns where Alphas are slightly taller than humans despite being dwarven in origin). So there is a possibility that the Kossith were significantly taller than other races, but the jury is still out. 
  • While the ruins in Par Vollen are believed to be human in origin (humans are depicted as the majority race in their artwork and Par Vollen is theorized to be the original home of the human race before they migrated further south), they do feature images of horned figures placed in positions of power and authority. I think it is very likely that these were Kossith - but what they were doing there, why they left, and what their relationship was to the native humans is unknown.

You’re not the first person I’ve heard make a connection between the Scaled Ones and the Kossith. Personally, I think they are two different races. But just to clear some things up:

The scaled ones do not have horns, but are described as having scales and incredibly sharp teeth and talons. They are an intelligent race, communicating in their own language, having their own ritualized religious practices, etc. From the limited eyewitness information we have, it appears that they could have a religious belief tied around the blood of dwarves… which considering the suggested dwarf/titan connection and the extreme power in Titan blood (ie lyrium) could mean that the Scaled Ones are a very ancient race who remember when the Titans thrived. 

Another possibility is that the Scaled Ones were another failed experiment by the same people responsible for creating the Kossith/Qunari. The similarities between them and dragons are very noticeable, though they seem to have traits that the Kossith/Qunari lack. It is quite possible that whoever is responsible for the creation of the Qunari and the Scaled Ones was looking for some specific feature that dragons possess and made more than one attempt to isolate and breed it. 

As for right now, there are tons of possibilities out there and many theories that could be developed to try and explain the clues we’ve got. I do like the idea that the elves were the ones behind this experiment. Even if that’s not how the canon plays out, it makes for an interesting idea. I wouldn’t be surprised in the slightest if the wars between Elgar’nan and the Forgotten Ones encouraged one side or the other to try and develop their own form of super soldier, so to speak.

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Farah Goes Bang dir. Meera Menon

The road-trip comedy of Farah Goes Bang follows a woman in her twenties, Farah Mahtab, who tries to lose her virginity while campaigning across America for presidential candidate John Kerry in 2004. 

Farah and her friends K.J. and Roopa follow the campaign trail across historic Route 66 on their way to Ohio, the central battleground state of 2004, seizing control of this charged moment in their lives and the life of their country. Roopa aspires to a job in politics, K.J. brawls her way through a personal motivation to end the war in Iraq, and Farah struggles to locate not just her desirability, but her desire. 

Katy Perry, Jennifer Lopez, Jon Bon Jovi Team Up for Clinton Performance Series ‘Love Trumps Hate’

Hillary Clinton’s campaign announced that Katy Perry, Jennifer Lopez, Jon Bon Jovi, and other artists will travel to battleground states for a performance series called “Love Trumps Hate.”

More artists will be announced in the coming days.

The campaign said that the intent of the series is to “energize our supporters and encourage them to turn out to vote on Election Day or to take advantage of early voting options in their states.”

They will also help organize volunteers for the final weeks of the campaign.

A flood of actors and musicians are expected to descend on swing states in the remaining three weeks of the race, just as they have in recent cycles. Perry and Bon Jovi also campaigned for Barack Obama, and Lopez appeared in a Latinos for Obama video for his 2012 reelection campaign.

Bon Jovi and Perry already have been on the campaign trail for Clinton, and Perry performed at the Democratic National Convention, in addition to numerous Clinton fundraisers.

A new poll shows the health care bill could crush Senate Republicans
The poll numbers for Senate Republican candidates take an approximately 30-point hit when voters learn they’re supporting their party’s bill to repeal and replace Obamacare, according to a poll set to be released on Friday. The poll found that, in a vacuum, voters in 10 battleground states are split almost evenly about Republican senate candidates — with 21 percent of voters viewing them favorably and 20 percent viewing them unfavorably. Read more

anonymous asked:

Who are you voting for the election

Modern day American elections are a paltry appeasement of the masses so that we may reaffirm that we are a “democratic” country and simultaneously ignore the fact that corporations, interest groups, lobbyists, and career politicians will continue to run this country the way that best benefits them.

For presidential elections, if you are lucky enough to live in a “battleground state,” you may feel that your vote has more of an impact, but you are, of course, wrong.  In the history of this country a state has never sent its electoral votes one way or another based on a single vote–your vote.  If you want one of your votes to finally matter then move to a small village and vote for their mayor.

The indirect system of voting we have in presidential elections is a relic of the past that further decreases any sort of power voters may think they have. But it doesn’t matter, because even if it were based on popular vote, your vote would not matter.

When public figures ask people to go vote, they do it because they think a certain demographic is more likely to hear their pleas.  For example, if I made a series of posts on my tumblr account saying “Go vote!” this benefits the Democratic Party, and more specifically Bernie Sanders, because the biggest faction on tumblr that is eligible to vote, if they do vote, would vote for Bernie.  Similarly, if Fox News asks their viewers to vote, they are hoping more Republicans will go vote. “Young people–go vote!” is conveniently targeting one of the Democratic Party’s main supporting blocs–younger voters.  It’s not out of their noble belief in the democratic system–it’s an attempt to improve the odds of their desired outcome.

Making a tweet at your governor asking him to fix something is infinitely more powerful than actually casting a vote in a gubernatorial election. Picketing outside The White House is infinitely more powerful than casting a vote against the President.  Writing a political tumblr post is infinitely more powerful than casting a vote for your interests.

Clinton Guy #1: “So this week, we’ve had bad polls come out of battleground states, Hillary’s health has been shown to be in bad shape, people still don’t trust her, and we’re being mocked for attacking a cartoon frog. What can we do to turn this around and get back on top of things?”

Clinton Guy #2: *under his breath* “Don’t write a hit piece blaming millennials. Don’t write a hit piece blaming millennials. Don’t-”

Looking through the “third party candidate” tag, I’m positively horrified by the number of people saying that voting third party is like voting for Trump. For swing states, that definitely holds true. IF YOU LIVE IN A SWING STATE, DO NOT VOTE THIRD PARTY

Furthermore, I see so many people saying that the time to vote third party is when both the candidates are moderates. The problem with this logic is that there will never be a moderate republican candidate, not within the next 20 years, which is a critical period for us and our democracy. Decades of bible thumping and courting of racists, homophobes, and xenophobes has left a base of republican voters that is even farther right than the party itself.

Swing states are:  Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Minnesota, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Nevada, Ohio, Virginia, and Wisconsin.

However, many of these posts are completely disregarding progressives in solid red states, and conservatives in solid blue states. The way that the electoral college system is structured, voting democrat in a republican state (or vice-versa) is effectively wasting your vote, since the outcome in that state was decided before anyone even entered the polling booth. Heck, even voting Democrat in a Democrat state, or Republican in a Republican state would be wasting your vote, since there are so many other voters that your vote wouldn’t have been the vote that wins the state.

Remember, in the general election, the popular vote does not matter

To third party candidates, however, the popular vote is a big deal.

Here’s why: Third party candidates aren’t guaranteed to be on the ballot in a given state like the D or R candidates are. HOWEVER, if a third party candidate gets 5% or more of the popular vote (popular vote, not electoral college vote) their party:

  • Is able to collect federal funding: $9.5 Million from the Presidential Election Campaign Fund
  • Can collect donations through Super PACS - as much as we hate them, they’re important to raise money
  • Can participate in the debates
  • Allows that party’s candidates equal ballot access - they’ll be on the ballot in ALL states next election

For the next election cycle - the 2020 election.

 If you were to instead cast your vote to a third party candidate, like Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson or Green candidate Jill Stein, in a non-battleground state, it could end up being your vote that puts them over the 5% needed.
If you’re in a state that is probably going to vote one way or another, but is still in the margin of error, then perhaps find another reluctant supporter of the opposite candidate (i.e: if you’re a reluctant Clinton supporter, find a reluctant Trump supporter) and make an agreement with them to both vote third party - make sure that this person is trustworthy, however, as they could just as easily break their agreement when election day comes ‘round.

TL;DR: If you’re in a state that’s already guaranteed to go in a specific direction, feel free to vote third party.

If you’re in a battleground/swing state, PLEASE FOR THE LOVE OF GOD DO NOT VOTE THIRD PARTY

Update:

Hillary for America general counsel Marc Elias on listening and responding to calls for an audit and recount:

“Over the last few days, officials in the Clinton campaign have received hundreds of messages, emails, and calls urging us to do something, anything, to investigate claims that the election results were hacked and altered in a way to disadvantage Secretary Clinton. The concerns have arisen, in particular, with respect to Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania — three states that together proved decisive in this presidential election and where the combined margin of victory for Donald Trump was merely 107,000 votes.

It should go without saying that we take these concerns extremely seriously. We certainly understand the heartbreak felt by so many who worked so hard to elect Hillary Clinton, and it is a fundamental principle of our democracy to ensure that every vote is properly counted.

Moreover, this election cycle was unique in the degree of foreign interference witnessed throughout the campaign: the U.S. government concluded that Russian state actors were behind the hacks of the Democratic National Committee and the personal email accounts of Hillary for America campaign officials, and just yesterday, the Washington Post reported that the Russian government was behind much of the “fake news” propaganda that circulated online in the closing weeks of the election.

For all these reasons, we have quietly taken a number of steps in the last two weeks to rule in or out any possibility of outside interference in the vote tally in these critical battleground states.
First, since the day after the election we have had lawyers and data scientists and analysts combing over the results to spot anomalies that would suggest a hacked result. These have included analysts both from within the campaign and outside, with backgrounds in politics, technology and academia.

Second, we have had numerous meetings and calls with various outside experts to hear their concerns and to discuss and review their data and findings. As a part of this, we have also shared out data and findings with them. Most of those discussions have remained private, while at least one has unfortunately been the subject of leaks.

Third, we have attempted to systematically catalogue and investigate every theory that has been presented to us within our ability to do so.

Fourth, we have examined the laws and practices as they pertain to recounts, contests and audits.

Fifth, and most importantly, we have monitored and staffed the post-election canvasses — where voting machine tapes are compared to poll-books, provisional ballots are resolved, and all of the math is double checked from election night. During that process, we have seen Secretary Clinton’s vote total grow, so that, today, her national popular vote lead now exceeds more than 2 million votes.

In the coming days, we will continue to perform our due diligence and actively follow all further activities that are to occur prior to the certification of any election results. For instance, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania conduct post-election audits using a sampling of precincts. Michigan and many other states still do not. This is unfortunate; it is our strong belief that, in addition to an election canvass, every state should do this basic audit to ensure accuracy and public confidence in the election.

Beyond the post-election audit, Green Party candidate Jill Stein announced Friday that she will exercise her right as a candidate to pursue a recount in the state of Wisconsin. She has indicated plans to also seek recounts in Pennsylvania and Michigan.

Because we had not uncovered any actionable evidence of hacking or outside attempts to alter the voting technology, we had not planned to exercise this option ourselves, but now that a recount has been initiated in Wisconsin, we intend to participate in order to ensure the process proceeds in a manner that is fair to all sides. If Jill Stein follows through as she has promised and pursues recounts in Pennsylvania and Michigan, we will take the same approach in those states as well. We do so fully aware that the number of votes separating Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton in the closest of these states — Michigan — well exceeds the largest margin ever overcome in a recount. But regardless of the potential to change the outcome in any of the states, we feel it is important, on principle, to ensure our campaign is legally represented in any court proceedings and represented on the ground in order to monitor the recount process itself.

The campaign is grateful to all those who have expended time and effort to investigate various claims of abnormalities and irregularities. While that effort has not, in our view, resulted in evidence of manipulation of results, now that a recount is underway, we believe we have an obligation to the more than 64 million Americans who cast ballots for Hillary Clinton to participate in ongoing proceedings to ensure that an accurate vote count will be reported.”