This has been bandied about before, but here’s a text that makes it almost certain imo: ESO exists in the untime of a dragon break.
Welcome to New Aldmeri Irregulars
by Aicantar of Shimmerene, Sapiarch of Indoctrination
Welcome, Altmeri, Bosmeri, and Khajiiti warriors. Welcome to the elite force of the Aldmeri Irregulars!
Orcs, Dark Elves, and Men—most of all, Men—are best at war. They have drenched the mainland of Tamriel in rivers of blood. As long as their follies were confined to murdering one another, what they did in and around their so-called “Imperial City" was beneath the notice of the Altmer of Summerset.
Then came the Dragon Break. That catastrophe was entirely the fault of Men, but the Altmer had to repair it. Now the Men of the Empire have catastrophically blundered again, and all Nirn is threatened. Our good queen had no choice but to form the Aldmeri Dominion to conquer Cyrodiil, and ensure for the good of all who dwell in Nirn that Men never again tamper with forces beyond their comprehension and competence.
Only the Aldmeri—the High Elves and their noble allies, the Wood Elves and Cat-Men—have the wisdom and restraint to peaceably rule the disparate peoples of Tamriel. Though we are reluctant to take up this burden, events have shown that we must. Recent events prove that the Dragon Break was not a unique event. Men always follow the destructive path of their defender and apologist, the Missing God whom we shall not name. This ends here. Once again, Elves shall rule Tamriel from White-Gold Tower … this time, forever.
The world has gone wrong, and we must put it right. March proudly beneath the eagle banner of the Aldmeri Dominion!
First off, this guy is the Sapiarch of Indoctrination so don’t believe everything he says. However, I don’t think that job includes manufacturing gratuitous dragon breaks, and I don’t think the writers would have included this if it wasn’t the/a conclusion they wanted us to make.
The first dragon break he refers to is almost definitely the Middle Dawn. He then says that men have caused another dragon break event more recently, and that it still remains to be fixed. This almost certainly began with the Soulburst event, when Mannimarco used the Amulet of Kings to break the divine covenant protecting Mundus from Oblivion and allowed Molag Bal to begin the Planemeld (these events set up the entire premise of ESO).
A lot of what he says is clearly trash, but this bit stands out to me. ESO takes place during a dragon break that began after the Middle Dawn.