“I don’t think people realize how this $80 million contract came about. It’s not only about a record deal for 3 albums. The break-even is 5 million units PER ALBUM. That includes marketing such as videos, shipments, exclusives etc. I’m guessing Harry will give huge promo which I’m really happy to see. No doubt it will include an Apple Music exclusive.
I mean they were willing to pay $25 million to be able to get the digital selling rights. Harry is high commodity. I’m hoping Target gets on this. How much are they willing to pay for bonus songs? 1D proved to be great physical sellers with MITAM. I have to check again but MITAM sold around 100k or more in just physical retail. Most artist can’t sell physical besides Adele and Taylor Swift.
With 3 days of sales, MITAM sold 103k in physical copies. And this was because Target ran out of stock. With the same marketing tactic, Harry could do the same. So 200k is pretty much guaranteed.
We’ll have to see how the first single does to get a prediction as well as preorder numbers. Then count SEA and TEA (meaning Stream Equivalent Albums & Track Equivalent Albums). MITAM accumulated around 57k units with TEA & SEA. And that was without a so called "hit single” Since then, streaming has exponentially grown and will continue to. We can hope for 80k in TEA/SEA with Harry’s debut.
I think 100k TEA/SEA units are possible but that would lower the pure sale forecast. We could be looking at debut around 300k more or less. I know we shouldn’t compare but this is the closets comparison we have so forgive me. Zayn’s MOM did 157k units and 112k were pure album sales and 45k were TEA/SEA. “IF” Harry does the average of Zayn and 1D numbers then that’s 257k pure sales and 51k with SEA making a debut of 308k units.
But like I said, streaming is growing and pure sales falling so this is just an estimate. A 300k debut is not bad at all. I doubt Harry will pull 1D numbers but I could always be proven wrong. Depends on his marketing team and how well they promote him. Also how the general public takes a liking of him, it would be nice to see different demographics become fans of Harry.
So we have 300k debut, and then DUNKIRK. The movie in itself will serve as promo for Harry. During interviews they will ask about music and vice versa. So Columbia gets exposure for while Harry is out doing press tour for Dunkirk without them lifting a finger. Amazing how Warner Bros & Columbia will save money and earn more to Harry’s rising “star” status. Huge profit for both.
And of course Harry benefits from all this. Like 1D music is huge in Japan but not so huge in China by comparison. BUT China is one of the biggest MOVIE markets in the world. If all goes well, Dunkirk grosses well and the general public in China can buy Harry’s album. Of course music fans of Harry will be watching the movie so both companies win.
This is just the music and acting. We still have TOURING to consider. 1D gathered their biggest revenue here so it’s possible it will be the same for Harry. I mean if he can gross 100m touring on his own that is HUGE profit. Not to mention possible collaborations because you know people will want to work with Harry. And hopefully get a collab with a fashion line.
That adds to Award show appearances (AMA/BBMA/OSCARS/BRITS/BAFTAS/GG/VMA), galas and more. Look at all that profit and exposure. At the end of the day, Harry’s profit and Columbia’s will be more than 80m. Exposure = money in this industry kids.“