Early-Vote

This chart shows why the Obama Campaign says it will win Ohio.

On Friday, Obama’s field director released numbers showing that Obama now has a decisive lead among the ballots that have already been cast in Ohio:

About 24% of projected Ohio votes have already been cast.

Ohioans who live in counties that Obama won in 2008 have already cast 866,798 ballots, compared with just 448,635 votes cast from Republican counties.

[So now] Romney needs to win at least 53% of the remaining votes to catch up.

Republicans counter with two points:

1) Just because a county went for Obama last time, that doesn’t mean the majority of its voters still back him today;

2) Romney’s supporters tend to turn out more on Election Day than during the early vote.

The first point is logical, but undermined by polls of people who already voted in Ohio, which show Obama leading among those voters by 20 to 30 points. 

The second point is the question that could decide the entire election – can Romney mobilize a surge on Election Day to come back in Ohio? Because right now, all indications suggest that he is behind.

By Ari Melber


Your Definitive Election Night Guide

What is going to happen tonight? No one knows. But here’s how it will go down.

Closing time: Polls start closing as early as 6pm, in Indiana, followed by a wave of key states at 8pm and 9pm. The last polls close at 10pm in Nevada and Iowa.

The first numbers: Most states will begin releasing early vote numbers when their polls close. But these numbers do not usually reflect the overall electorate. So a 3-point lead in the early vote does not mean a candidate will win, because it can easily be wiped out as the later votes are tallied.  (But a huge lead in early votes might hold.)

Declaring winners: Television news networks generally refrain from projecting winners until all the polls are closed, including the West Coast.  Here on the Internet, people can speculate without delay. It is hard, however, to make useful projections based on the early data, which is limited to the early vote and – even less reliable – the exit polls.

Exit polls: The most common source of speculation are the exit polls, which are essentially created by (1) questioning people as they leave the polls today; and (2) calling people who voted early. Exit polls are usually released in waves, and like a weather forecast, they are often in the ballpark but sometimes totally wrong. The early 2004 exit polls showed a decisive victory for John Kerry, for example, which briefly rocked the political and media world. And that was before Twitter.*

Be measured – unless that’s unnecessary: So if you can’t bear to wait for the official projections, the best tack is to be measured while sifting through early indicators.  Even that pedantic advice could be wrong, however, since blowouts are usually visible in early data. In 2008, the TV networks refrained from calling the race until 11pm, but the numbers from many key states, including longtime red states, showed a lock on the Electoral College for Obama.

Ultimately, the closer it looks, the less you should believe any early speculations. After all, why believe anyone trying to call a photo-finish without a photo?



* The A.P., which has a reliable record of projecting election winners since 1848, has instructed its staff not to tweet speculation about winners or to retweet calls by others.

Ohio election report from my pal Eric R.:

“My friend Jean lives in Cincinnati. She went down to the central city polls to help out today. Yes, in Ohio the polls were open on Sunday. But the number of polling places is far too few for the number of voters. The lines were three hours long!

She was in the basement of a church where they were organizing election support and sat down at one of those folding tables that are ubiquitous in church basements. She looked over at the other end of the table and there was the Reverend Jesse Jackson. Yes, he had gone to Cincinnati to help encourage early voters. He was walking the lines, encouraging people to not give up, to stay in line and vote. Remember when he came to Madison to give us support. That guy is a giant! I love him very much!”

Our historic early vote turnout has put President Obama in a strong position to win tomorrow and continue to move the country forward for another four years. How do we know?

First, according to the latest polls, we are winning among early voters in Colorado, Florida, Iowa, North Carolina, Nevada, Ohio, and Wisconsin. Nearly all of these leads are in double digits.

Second, “sporadic voters” have taken advantage of the convenience of early vote, and the overwhelming majority of them are Democrats.

Third, it’s clear that our winning coalition of supporters is enthusiastic and showing up to vote in huge numbers… more than two-thirds of those who have already voted in the battlegrounds are women, youth, African Americans, or Latinos

— 

New field statistics from the Obama Campaign released Monday.

/ via Ari Melber

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President Obama Early Votes

Gotta vote? Go here: http://OFA.BO/pyrr3g

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“Please know this, when you are going in for a second shift at work, when you’re trying to figure out how you’re going to pay for your child’s tuition, or maybe pay that light bill that is due, know this, that you will have a governor who is in the capitol, who is thinking about you, who is fighting for you, who understands what it’s like to face struggles in life and look down a road that feels like there are no opportunities on it, and yet who stands here with the privilege of having the opportunity to ask you to serve as your next governor. And please know this, that she has not forgotten where she comes from, that she knows you and she knows hard working people in this state, because she IS you and because she will never forget who it is that’s elected her to serve and who it is that she’s fighting for, and she, I, will fight for you. Every. Single. Day.” - Wendy Davis

This election is different.

Chip in $3 if you believe in Wendy.
All for us Millennials Voting, and particularly for Bernie Sanders, but seriously:

I’m a 19 year old Autistic kid with literally no prior knowledge of voting, Public Schools do not teach this shit, I’m somewhat depressed, broke, and I can’t drive myself.

So:

How Do I Vote?

When Do I Vote?

Where Do I Vote?

What is Voting Like?

What is Early Voting? (Does it count?)

These are just some of many questions that I can’t seem to find anywhere.

Granted I haven’t had too many spoons lately so that may affect my searching.

Other questions I’d like answered as well are:

Can I vote for who will be in Senate/House/whatever else there is to vote for?

How?

When?

Where?

Who are some good candidates? (bc I’ve seen nothing on anyone)

Are there any Solid* Options for Disabled Voters?

Are there any Solid Options for peeps without transport?

Are there any Solid Options for people living with strict guardians?

*By Solid I mean are things like:

Are there ways to vote that don’t require transportation?

Will the voting process require mobility, or motor skills?

Are their verbal options for those without motor skills?

ASL options?

How do you get accommodations to vote?

How secure is a ballot?

Can people with strict or abusive families be absolutely sure their vote won’t be seen?

Are there ways to vote without alerting people you may be dependent on?
(In other words, notably for disabled/mentally ill people with manipulative families, are there ways to vote without informing your family members you’ve voted? In order to avoid manipulative tactics the family may try to get you to reveal who you’re voting for?)

Are there any notable senate/house/state/etc candidates who actually advocate for Disabled people?

|| for Trans people?

|| for Mental Health?

I really want Bernie Sanders to be elected because he is the candidate I agree with most on many positions.

But I also realise that if he does get elected, and the people he has to share power with are against everything he says and does, then there’s little point.

This goes for anyone voting for anybody, if the house/senate/whatever it’s called (government was the last class of the day shhh) doesn’t agree with the president there will never be any change.

Nothing will get done and it will be a viscous cycle.

So, yeah, if anyone can answer these please do!

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Barack Obama and Mitt Romney aren’t running for President – they’re running for President of Ohio. 

That’s how Rob Reiner, the famous Hollywood director, summed up this year’s campaign.  He’s right, because there’s virtually no way Romney can win without Ohio. So even as the candidates scrambled their schedules on Monday in response to Hurricane Sandy, their field programs are out in force trying to mobilize early voters in Ohio.  And while the political class fixates on ads, attacks and rallies, the real action is on the ground. 

Today the Obama campaign launched a new video briefing aimed at volunteers and base voters, not the national chattering class, explaining when Ohioans can vote (8am to 7pm) and where to locate early voting locations (Gottavote.com). Ahmad Khan, the campaign’s Ohio voter protection director, walks through the details.

The video is, in a word, boring.

It won’t draw the attention of Obama’s bigger YouTube hits (the campaign’s most popular video of the general election, with 3.5 million views, is about Big Bird). Yet it is a pivotal part of how elections are actually won – by meticulously informing and mobilizing supporters – and there’s nothing boring about winning.

- Ari Melber

lvrj.com
Third of Nevada Ballots Already Cast

According to the Las Vegas Review Journal, one third of all Nevada voters have already cast their ballot, and turnout records are expected to continue to be broken in this second week of early voting.

According to figures released by the Nevada secretary of state’s office Monday, almost 374,000 people cast early ballots statewide through Sunday. Another 60,000 sent in absentee ballots, bringing total turnout in Nevada to 34 percent after the first nine days of voting.

Statewide, thirty-five thousand more Democrats than Republicans have already voted, and 77k nonpartisan/independents have cast their ballots.

President Obama defeated Sen McCain by about 13 points in Nevada in 2008 (Source), after Republican wins in 2000 and 2004 (Bill Clinton won the state in 1996).

This year, the Real Clear Politics average shows Obama with a 2.5 point lead over Romney in Nevada. Among the recent polls, the only one I have crosstabs for that also discusses the early voters is PPP, which shows that among those voters who have already voted Obama leads 61/39, while Romney has a 51/46 lead among those who have not voted (Source).

Romney is going to do a lot better in Nevada than McCain (and even when Democrats have won the state, as in 1996, Republicans have generally been much more competitive than McCain was, so don’t credit too much of Romney’s success here to Mormon efforts).

(h/t Paul Gronke)

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Obama campaign manager Jim Messina briefs supporters on the state of the race in a new video.

He basically tells people to ignore the national polls and look at numbers that matter where the race will be decided, like swing state polls and ballots that have already been cast through early vote. Messina says Obama is winning among the 14 million people who have already voted. That is a slight exaggeration.

The data actually shows that more Democratic registrants are voting, which doesn’t prove who they picked this year. There is also polling of early voters, however, and that  shows Obama has leads in key states like Ohio and Iowa, (which Messina also explains). And the early voting polling from Gallup shows nearly a tie nationally. So the more precise interpretation is that Obama leads in early voting in the pivotal states, according to local polling. But hey, this video is dry enough as it is. 

Messina also buries one of the key stats - that Obama has more than double the field offices as Romney (about 800 to 300). That makes a big difference for GOTV in the homestretch.

- Ari Melber

anonymous asked:

What are some things first time voters should know? This will be my first election that I'm able to vote in but school skipped over politics.

Make sure you register.

Make sure you have the appropriate ID.

Your employer has to give you time off work to vote if your hours conflict with voting.

You can vote in person or by mail.

There are also advance polls a few days before the election, if you want to vote early.